0x57a8…ebc2 lost money; a simulated copy at a 5-minute delay lost $67,863
Provisional
A copier who mirrored 0x57a8…ebc2's 3,282 buys across 47 markets with a 5-minute delay and $100 per trade would have ended at −$67,863. The leader lost $40,598 at the same size, so there were no returns to keep: delay cost $19,389, slippage helped by +$219.46 and fees $8,095. In the backtest, this simulated copy would have tied up to $115,300 at once across 3,109 positions.
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Key numbers
The headline numbers only count what real trades in the 10 minutes after the delay prove. “Including estimates” also counts the unproven part of a buy when order-book or trading-volume evidence says it was fillable, at an estimated price. Treat it as an upper view, not a promise. 247 estimated: 238 high · 9 medium · 0 low How we estimate
Cumulative PnL across all copied positions
Final values: 0 min: −$66,791; 1 min: −$69,431; 5 min: −$67,863; 30 min: +$14,238. Max drawdown −$119,916 (5 min, Oct 24). Hover or use the arrow keys to read values.
Chart data by day
| Day (UTC) | 0 min | 1 min | 5 min | 30 min |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17 | +$19,452 | +$18,033 | +$14,128 | +$8,892 |
| Oct 18 | +$3,316 | +$330.74 | −$7,590 | −$15,269 |
| Oct 19 | +$3,316 | +$330.74 | −$7,590 | −$15,269 |
| Oct 20 | −$56.85 | −$3,042 | −$10,971 | −$18,122 |
| Oct 21 | −$56.85 | −$3,042 | −$10,971 | −$18,122 |
| Oct 22 | +$984.20 | −$2,001 | −$9,933 | −$16,108 |
| Oct 23 | −$25,039 | −$27,799 | −$33,674 | −$26,874 |
| Oct 24 | −$70,883 | −$72,744 | −$73,481 | +$8,185 |
| Oct 25 | −$66,791 | −$69,431 | −$67,863 | +$14,238 |
Every delay side by side
| Delay | Follower PnL | Kept | Filled |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 min | −$66,791 | n/a (The leader lost money at this size, so there were no returns to keep) | 92% |
| 1 min | −$69,431 | n/a (The leader lost money at this size, so there were no returns to keep) | 92% |
| 5 min (selected) | −$67,863 | n/a (The leader lost money at this size, so there were no returns to keep) | 92% |
| 30 min | +$14,238 | n/a (The leader lost money at this size, so there were no returns to keep) | 58% |
Where the returns go
- Leader PnL at your size−$40,598
- Delay cost−$19,389
- Slippage helped+$219.46
- Fees (buys $8,085 · sells $9.89)−$8,095
- Follower PnL−$67,863
Leader PnL is scaled to your per-trade size. Delay cost is the price move between the leader's fill and yours; slippage is walking the book to fill your size; fees use the 2026 fee schedule. Methodology.
By category
| Category | Trades | Follower PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 3,282 | −$67,863 | −22.2% |
Trades
Each leader buy and the copy we simulated at the selected delay. Open “Details” to see the market fills behind the copy price.
How fills are simulated: a copy can only fill against real taker buys of the same outcome within 10 minutes after the delay, so the headline numbers are conservative. Fill basis adds a second opinion: where no trade proved a fill, order-book or volume evidence may say the size was still fillable (an estimate, never in the headline). Methodology.
Filled whole order · Partial (NN%) part of it · No buyers nobody bought in the window — not counted · Data not in yet too recent to evaluate
| Date | Market | Leader price | Copy price | Fill | Fill basis | Follower PnL | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trades load from the live API when this section is visible. | |||||||
More Sports traders
- 0x74b7…8b0bBeat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0xf28e…cab2Beat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0x5dee…30b1Beat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0x57b4…b46bLeader lost money at this size
- 0xf48f…e9b9Leader lost money at this size
- 0xf54e…1297Keeps −1135% at a 5-minute delay
See the full Sports copyability board, read the methodology, or learn how slippage and fees eat into copied returns.
This is a simulation built from historical on-chain fills; it is not a record of real copy trades. Past results don't predict future results. Only the wallet address and its public Polymarket name are shown.