In backtest, copying 0x677d…4907 keeps 58% of returns at a 5-minute delay
Provisional
A copier who mirrored 0x677d…4907's 133 buys across 133 markets with a 5-minute delay and $100 per trade would have kept 58% of the leader's returns: +$169.29 against +$290.42 for the leader at the same size. In this backtest, most of the edge survived the delay, and 58% of buys could be filled within 10 minutes. The remaining gap is the delay helped by +$1.36, slippage helped by +$71.51 and fees $194.00. In the backtest, this simulated copy would have tied up to $433.25 at once across 114 positions.
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Key numbers
The headline numbers only count what real trades in the 10 minutes after the delay prove. “Including estimates” also counts the unproven part of a buy when order-book or trading-volume evidence says it was fillable, at an estimated price. Treat it as an upper view, not a promise. 55 estimated: 39 high · 16 medium · 0 low · 1 thin How we estimate
Cumulative PnL across all copied positions
Final values: 0 min: +$440.64; 1 min: +$336.97; 5 min: +$169.29; 30 min: +$146.53. Max drawdown −$723.72 (5 min, Oct 23). Hover or use the arrow keys to read values.
Chart data by day
| Day (UTC) | 0 min | 1 min | 5 min | 30 min |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 8 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Oct 9 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Oct 10 | −$91.59 | −$91.59 | −$27.67 | −$14.44 |
| Oct 11 | −$381.13 | −$459.13 | −$444.30 | −$229.88 |
| Oct 12 | −$160.73 | −$236.49 | −$177.06 | −$104.01 |
| Oct 13 | −$184.54 | −$252.87 | −$188.52 | −$216.25 |
| Oct 14 | +$227.42 | +$262.75 | +$163.73 | +$312.23 |
| Oct 15 | +$276.37 | +$192.41 | +$503.00 | +$338.65 |
| Oct 16 | +$470.96 | +$376.71 | +$484.83 | +$290.52 |
| Oct 17 | +$176.62 | +$154.29 | +$223.70 | +$78.83 |
| Oct 18 | +$723.17 | +$762.72 | +$820.33 | +$909.51 |
| Oct 19 | +$890.54 | +$885.97 | +$745.24 | +$738.13 |
| Oct 20 | +$900.19 | +$879.80 | +$695.70 | +$636.60 |
| Oct 21 | +$1,117 | +$1,039 | +$742.60 | +$713.22 |
| Oct 22 | +$709.33 | +$630.92 | +$369.27 | +$416.60 |
| Oct 23 | +$440.64 | +$336.97 | +$169.29 | +$146.53 |
Every delay side by side
| Delay | Follower PnL | Kept | Filled |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 min | +$440.64 | 100%+ (Exactly 151.7%: the simulated copy did better than the leader) | 63% |
| 1 min | +$336.97 | 100%+ (Exactly 116.0%: the simulated copy did better than the leader) | 62% |
| 5 min (selected) | +$169.29 | 58.3% | 58% |
| 30 min | +$146.53 | 50.5% | 47% |
Where the returns go
- Leader PnL at your size+$290.42
- Delay helped+$1.36
- Slippage helped+$71.51
- Fees (buys $190.27 · sells $3.73)−$194.00
- Follower PnL+$169.29
Leader PnL is scaled to your per-trade size. Delay cost is the price move between the leader's fill and yours; slippage is walking the book to fill your size; fees use the 2026 fee schedule. Methodology.
By category
| Category | Trades | Follower PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 133 | +$169.29 | +1.9% |
Trades
Each leader buy and the copy we simulated at the selected delay. Open “Details” to see the market fills behind the copy price.
How fills are simulated: a copy can only fill against real taker buys of the same outcome within 10 minutes after the delay, so the headline numbers are conservative. Fill basis adds a second opinion: where no trade proved a fill, order-book or volume evidence may say the size was still fillable (an estimate, never in the headline). Methodology.
Filled whole order · Partial (NN%) part of it · No buyers nobody bought in the window — not counted · Data not in yet too recent to evaluate
| Date | Market | Leader price | Copy price | Fill | Fill basis | Follower PnL | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trades load from the live API when this section is visible. | |||||||
More Sports traders
- 0x74b7…8b0bBeat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0xf28e…cab2Beat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0x5dee…30b1Beat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0xc6be…a0f3Keeps 53% at a 5-minute delay
- 0xd84d…cc32Keeps 39% at a 5-minute delay
- 0x1ede…46e8Keeps 48% at a 5-minute delay
See the full Sports copyability board, read the methodology, or learn how slippage and fees eat into copied returns.
This is a simulation built from historical on-chain fills; it is not a record of real copy trades. Past results don't predict future results. Only the wallet address and its public Polymarket name are shown.