In backtest, only 17% of 0x690b…bd2c's buys could be fully copied at a 5-minute delay
Provisional
Only 17% of this trader's buys could be fully copied at a 5-minute delay, and another 18% only partly; the +$100.23 comes from the part you could copy. A copier who mirrored 0x690b…bd2c's 72 buys across 15 markets with a 5-minute delay and $100 per trade would have ended at +$100.23. The leader lost $777.23 at the same size, so there were no returns to keep; the copier only came out ahead because later prices happened to be better: the delay helped by +$887.83, slippage helped by +$1.40 and fees $11.77. In the backtest, this simulated copy would have tied up to $1,234 at once across 25 positions.
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Key numbers
The headline numbers only count what real trades in the 10 minutes after the delay prove. “Including estimates” also counts the unproven part of a buy when order-book or trading-volume evidence says it was fillable, at an estimated price. Treat it as an upper view, not a promise. 48 estimated: 21 high · 24 medium · 3 low · 12 thin How we estimate
Cumulative PnL across all copied positions
Final values: 0 min: +$203.52; 1 min: +$179.88; 5 min: +$100.23; 30 min: −$209.47. Max drawdown −$72.34 (5 min, Oct 4). Hover or use the arrow keys to read values.
Chart data by day
| Day (UTC) | 0 min | 1 min | 5 min | 30 min |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2 | +$19.86 | +$19.86 | +$19.86 | +$11.45 |
| Oct 3 | +$19.86 | +$19.86 | +$19.86 | +$11.45 |
| Oct 4 | +$9.21 | +$19.55 | −$52.49 | −$144.35 |
| Oct 5 | +$96.21 | +$105.81 | +$49.02 | −$143.77 |
| Oct 6 | +$110.85 | +$110.05 | +$49.02 | −$129.35 |
| Oct 7 | +$145.77 | +$119.73 | +$57.65 | −$108.78 |
| Oct 8 | +$171.67 | +$144.77 | +$63.03 | −$96.57 |
| Oct 9 | +$182.36 | +$155.46 | +$73.74 | −$96.57 |
| Oct 10 | +$177.35 | +$150.44 | +$68.73 | −$101.59 |
| Oct 11 | +$177.35 | +$150.44 | +$68.73 | −$101.59 |
| Oct 12 | +$177.35 | +$150.44 | +$68.73 | −$90.77 |
| Oct 13 | +$177.35 | +$150.44 | +$68.73 | −$90.77 |
| Oct 14 | +$177.35 | +$150.44 | +$68.73 | −$90.77 |
| Oct 15 | +$177.35 | +$150.44 | +$68.73 | −$86.70 |
| Oct 16 | +$184.03 | +$160.43 | +$79.47 | −$76.71 |
| Oct 17 | +$184.03 | +$160.43 | +$79.47 | −$76.71 |
| Oct 18 | +$184.03 | +$160.43 | +$79.47 | −$76.71 |
| Oct 19 | +$203.52 | +$179.88 | +$100.23 | −$204.33 |
| Oct 20 | +$203.52 | +$179.88 | +$100.23 | −$204.33 |
| Oct 21 | +$203.52 | +$179.88 | +$100.23 | −$209.47 |
Every delay side by side
| Delay | Follower PnL | Kept | Filled |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 min | +$203.52 | n/a (The leader lost money at this size, so there were no returns to keep) | 24% |
| 1 min | +$179.88 | n/a (The leader lost money at this size, so there were no returns to keep) | 19% |
| 5 min (selected) | +$100.23 | n/a (The leader lost money at this size, so there were no returns to keep) | 17% |
| 30 min | −$209.47 | n/a (The leader lost money at this size, so there were no returns to keep) | 15% |
Where the returns go
- Leader PnL at your size−$777.23
- Delay helped+$887.83
- Slippage helped+$1.40
- Fees (buys $11.60 · sells $0.17)−$11.77
- Follower PnL+$100.23
Leader PnL is scaled to your per-trade size. Delay cost is the price move between the leader's fill and yours; slippage is walking the book to fill your size; fees use the 2026 fee schedule. Methodology.
By category
| Category | Trades | Follower PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Politics | 48 | +$99.48 | +6.0% |
| Economy | 18 | $0.00 | 0.0% |
| Geopolitics | 5 | +$0.75 | +7.5% |
| Other | 1 | $0.00 | 0.0% |
Trades
Each leader buy and the copy we simulated at the selected delay. Open “Details” to see the market fills behind the copy price.
How fills are simulated: a copy can only fill against real taker buys of the same outcome within 10 minutes after the delay, so the headline numbers are conservative. Fill basis adds a second opinion: where no trade proved a fill, order-book or volume evidence may say the size was still fillable (an estimate, never in the headline). Methodology.
Filled whole order · Partial (NN%) part of it · No buyers nobody bought in the window — not counted · Data not in yet too recent to evaluate
| Date | Market | Leader price | Copy price | Fill | Fill basis | Follower PnL | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trades load from the live API when this section is visible. | |||||||
More Politics traders
- 0x55b4…80eaBeat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0x24c8…23e1Beat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0x614d…1546Beat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0x709a…7e39Keeps −67% at a 5-minute delay
- 0x8afa…adb6Leader lost money at this size
- 0xaf15…5dd2Keeps −22% at a 5-minute delay
See the full Politics copyability board, read the methodology, or learn how slippage and fees eat into copied returns.
This is a simulation built from historical on-chain fills; it is not a record of real copy trades. Past results don't predict future results. Only the wallet address and its public Polymarket name are shown.