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In backtest, only 23% of 0x6964…ef53's buys could be fully copied at a 5-minute delay

Politics 0x69645cea639e7a19cbde6c126a197bc1abafef53 Profile on Polymarket

Only 23% of this trader's buys could be fully copied at a 5-minute delay, and another 22% only partly; the +$1,748 comes from the part you could copy. A copier who mirrored 0x6964…ef53's 3,298 buys across 222 markets with a 5-minute delay and $100 per trade would have ended at +$1,748. The leader lost $1,987 at the same size, so there were no returns to keep; the copier only came out ahead because later prices happened to be better: the delay helped by +$6,789, slippage $1,354 and fees $1,700. In the backtest, this simulated copy would have tied up to $9,596 at once across 1,466 positions.

Copy delay

Each time the trader buys, the simulation copies this much. Not a total budget.

Key numbers

Follower PnL
+$1,748
Incl. estimates +$8,886
Max drawdown −$7,978
ROI +1.8% on total cost
Returns kept
n/a (The leader lost money at this size, so there were no returns to keep)
Leader, same size −$1,987
leader lost money
Peak capital in use
$9,596
Incl. estimates $23,643
3,298 copied buys · $95,586 total cost
Fill rate
23%
Most buys couldn't be fully copied
Incl. estimates 55%
745 filled · 721 partial · 1,832 no buyers
Backtest score
21/100
3,298 buys · 222 markets

The headline numbers only count what real trades in the 10 minutes after the delay prove. “Including estimates” also counts the unproven part of a buy when order-book or trading-volume evidence says it was fillable, at an estimated price. Treat it as an upper view, not a promise. 1,532 estimated: 557 high · 675 medium · 300 low · 888 thin How we estimate

Cumulative PnL across all copied positions

X axis
Max drawdown −$8k

Final values: 0 min: +$1,231; 1 min: +$1,348; 5 min: +$1,748; 30 min: +$10,168. Max drawdown −$7,978 (5 min, Oct 17). Hover or use the arrow keys to read values.

Chart data by day
Day (UTC)0 min1 min5 min30 min
Sep 21+$41.32+$41.19+$42.02−$12.18
Sep 22+$577.11+$666.53−$97.72−$564.02
Sep 23+$730.85+$736.56−$360.27−$522.19
Sep 24+$1,426+$1,440−$424.13−$499.59
Sep 25−$1,078−$1,155−$3,117−$1,590
Sep 26−$1,177−$1,222−$3,192−$1,616
Sep 27−$1,360−$1,430−$3,369−$1,806
Sep 28+$357.61+$465.70−$1,651−$541.41
Sep 29+$154.46+$228.73−$1,847−$593.61
Sep 30+$658.79+$551.46−$1,863+$137.56
Oct 1−$229.57−$332.85−$2,617−$415.85
Oct 2−$1,175−$1,373−$3,514−$511.36
Oct 3−$1,164−$1,359−$3,503−$504.35
Oct 4−$1,545−$1,707−$4,017−$739.76
Oct 5−$3,264−$3,424−$5,369−$1,685
Oct 6−$3,635−$3,580−$5,634−$100.22
Oct 7−$3,408−$3,609−$5,437+$558.09
Oct 8−$4,041−$4,235−$6,141+$423.06
Oct 9−$3,380−$3,590−$5,451+$914.98
Oct 10−$4,087−$4,299−$6,229+$217.93
Oct 11−$4,042−$4,259−$6,198+$221.99
Oct 12−$4,066−$4,280−$6,166+$162.49
Oct 13−$5,164−$5,385−$7,090−$403.14
Oct 14−$5,623−$5,874−$7,710−$804.55
Oct 15−$5,623−$5,874−$7,710−$804.55
Oct 16−$5,623−$5,874−$7,710−$804.55
Oct 17−$5,670−$5,983−$7,782−$661.92
Oct 18−$5,670−$5,983−$7,782−$661.92
Oct 19−$3,778−$3,881−$5,599+$3,605
Oct 20−$1,606−$1,778−$3,452+$6,161
Oct 21−$2,227−$2,428−$4,406+$5,639
Oct 22−$2,143−$2,289−$4,218+$5,729
Oct 23+$718.92+$877.54+$63.34+$9,753
Oct 24+$1,177+$1,295+$1,701+$10,162
Oct 25+$1,231+$1,348+$1,748+$10,168

Every delay side by side

DelayFollower PnLKeptFilled
0 min+$1,231n/a (The leader lost money at this size, so there were no returns to keep)25%
1 min+$1,348n/a (The leader lost money at this size, so there were no returns to keep)25%
5 min (selected)+$1,748n/a (The leader lost money at this size, so there were no returns to keep)23%
30 min+$10,168n/a (The leader lost money at this size, so there were no returns to keep)16%

Where the returns go

  1. Leader PnL at your size−$1,987
  2. Delay helped+$6,789
  3. Slippage−$1,354
  4. Fees (buys $1,400 · sells $299.64)−$1,700
  5. Follower PnL+$1,748

Leader PnL is scaled to your per-trade size. Delay cost is the price move between the leader's fill and yours; slippage is walking the book to fill your size; fees use the 2026 fee schedule. Methodology.

By category

CategoryTradesFollower PnLROI
Politics3,196+$1,701+1.8%
Weather46+$10.86+4.7%
Tech41+$35.99+70.1%
Sports15$0.000.0%

Data version 12080 · computed Oct 26, 2026 · 42 unsettled positions marked at the last traded price.

Trades

Each leader buy and the copy we simulated at the selected delay. Open “Details” to see the market fills behind the copy price.

How fills are simulated: a copy can only fill against real taker buys of the same outcome within 10 minutes after the delay, so the headline numbers are conservative. Fill basis adds a second opinion: where no trade proved a fill, order-book or volume evidence may say the size was still fillable (an estimate, never in the headline). Methodology.

Filled whole order · Partial (NN%) part of it · No buyers nobody bought in the window — not counted · Data not in yet too recent to evaluate

Show
Order
Date Market Leader price Copy price Fill Fill basis Follower PnL Details
Trades load from the live API when this section is visible.
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More Politics traders

See the full Politics copyability board, read the methodology, or learn how slippage and fees eat into copied returns.

This is a simulation built from historical on-chain fills; it is not a record of real copy trades. Past results don't predict future results. Only the wallet address and its public Polymarket name are shown.