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In backtest, only 23% of 0xac4a…bf1e's buys could be fully copied at a 5-minute delay

Politics 0xac4a1fabdac2438d6afa2a9e8e83845310a0bf1e Profile on Polymarket

ProvisionalIncludes trades from the last ~40 minutes, so these results may still change. Computed Oct 26, 2026, 02:05 UTC.

Only 23% of this trader's buys could be fully copied at a 5-minute delay, and another 25% only partly; the −$10,561 comes from the part you could copy. A copier who mirrored 0xac4a…bf1e's 4,242 buys across 1,328 markets with a 5-minute delay and $100 per trade would have ended at −$10,561, while the leader made +$8,775 at the same size. At a 5-minute delay a follower can't keep up: delay cost $15,040, slippage $1,524 and fees $2,771 outweigh whatever edge the leader had. In the backtest, this simulated copy would have tied up to $52,224 at once across 2,050 positions.

Copy delay

Each time the trader buys, the simulation copies this much. Not a total budget.

Key numbers

Follower PnL
−$10,561
Incl. estimates −$15,865
Max drawdown −$16,329
ROI −8.4% on total cost
Returns kept
−120%
Leader, same size +$8,775
follower ÷ leader
Peak capital in use
$52,224
Incl. estimates $129,825
4,242 copied buys · $126,120 total cost
Fill rate
23%
Most buys couldn't be fully copied
Incl. estimates 50%
980 filled · 1,070 partial · 2,192 no buyers
Backtest score
21/100
4,242 buys · 1,328 markets

The headline numbers only count what real trades in the 10 minutes after the delay prove. “Including estimates” also counts the unproven part of a buy when order-book or trading-volume evidence says it was fillable, at an estimated price. Treat it as an upper view, not a promise. 1,988 estimated: 588 high · 760 medium · 640 low · 1,016 thin How we estimate

Cumulative PnL across all copied positions

X axis
Max drawdown −$16k

Final values: 0 min: −$7,628; 1 min: −$8,218; 5 min: −$10,561; 30 min: −$10,006. Max drawdown −$16,329 (5 min, Oct 8). Hover or use the arrow keys to read values.

Chart data by day
Day (UTC)0 min1 min5 min30 min
Sep 21−$1,833−$1,427−$1,110+$795.28
Sep 22−$2,499−$1,727−$2,822−$2,333
Sep 23−$2,531−$1,868−$2,609−$2,678
Sep 24−$3,117−$2,619−$3,272−$3,345
Sep 25−$7,256−$6,727−$7,256−$5,510
Sep 26−$7,624−$7,104−$7,769−$5,669
Sep 27−$8,001−$7,588−$7,849−$6,025
Sep 28−$4,311−$4,091−$5,900−$5,333
Sep 29−$5,107−$4,854−$6,451−$6,086
Sep 30−$5,316−$4,881−$6,602−$6,208
Oct 1−$4,866−$4,581−$6,603−$6,396
Oct 2−$5,839−$5,422−$7,114−$7,089
Oct 3−$5,640−$5,381−$7,609−$6,913
Oct 4−$8,766−$8,774−$11,698−$9,731
Oct 5−$10,513−$10,482−$12,861−$10,825
Oct 6−$11,945−$11,802−$14,074−$10,912
Oct 7−$11,570−$11,596−$13,980−$10,819
Oct 8−$7,507−$7,893−$10,731−$8,170
Oct 9−$7,849−$8,456−$10,302−$7,816
Oct 10−$8,020−$8,586−$10,204−$7,788
Oct 11−$8,155−$8,714−$10,569−$7,947
Oct 12−$7,189−$8,127−$10,468−$7,394
Oct 13−$8,069−$8,956−$11,350−$8,548
Oct 14−$8,069−$8,956−$11,350−$8,548
Oct 15−$8,069−$8,956−$11,350−$8,548
Oct 16−$8,069−$8,956−$11,350−$8,548
Oct 17−$8,069−$8,956−$11,350−$8,548
Oct 18−$7,948−$8,932−$11,359−$8,435
Oct 19−$5,979−$6,786−$9,352−$6,713
Oct 20−$6,295−$7,104−$9,727−$6,863
Oct 21−$7,788−$8,191−$10,727−$7,508
Oct 22−$7,572−$8,001−$10,620−$8,383
Oct 23−$5,910−$6,125−$8,819−$7,567
Oct 24−$5,155−$5,597−$8,100−$7,095
Oct 25−$7,397−$7,979−$10,305−$9,919
Oct 26−$7,628−$8,218−$10,561−$10,006

Every delay side by side

DelayFollower PnLKeptFilled
0 min−$7,628−86.9%28%
1 min−$8,218−93.7%25%
5 min (selected)−$10,561−120%23%
30 min−$10,006−115%18%

Where the returns go

  1. Leader PnL at your size+$8,775
  2. Delay cost−$15,040
  3. Slippage−$1,524
  4. Fees (buys $2,761 · sells $10.59)−$2,771
  5. Follower PnL−$10,561

Leader PnL is scaled to your per-trade size. Delay cost is the price move between the leader's fill and yours; slippage is walking the book to fill your size; fees use the 2026 fee schedule. Methodology.

By category

CategoryTradesFollower PnLROI
Politics3,011−$8,561−8.1%
Tech399−$869.88−11.3%
Culture302+$0.870.0%
Geopolitics222−$364.41−12.2%
Economy155−$633.36−49.9%
Finance86+$33.75+3.8%
Sports67−$167.00−4.0%

Data version 12073 · computed Oct 26, 2026 · 1,671 unsettled positions marked at the last traded price.

Trades

Each leader buy and the copy we simulated at the selected delay. Open “Details” to see the market fills behind the copy price.

How fills are simulated: a copy can only fill against real taker buys of the same outcome within 10 minutes after the delay, so the headline numbers are conservative. Fill basis adds a second opinion: where no trade proved a fill, order-book or volume evidence may say the size was still fillable (an estimate, never in the headline). Methodology.

Filled whole order · Partial (NN%) part of it · No buyers nobody bought in the window — not counted · Data not in yet too recent to evaluate

Show
Order
Date Market Leader price Copy price Fill Fill basis Follower PnL Details
Trades load from the live API when this section is visible.
Page 1

More Politics traders

See the full Politics copyability board, read the methodology, or learn how slippage and fees eat into copied returns.

This is a simulation built from historical on-chain fills; it is not a record of real copy trades. Past results don't predict future results. Only the wallet address and its public Polymarket name are shown.