In backtest, only 13% of 0x7b02…4991's buys could be fully copied at a 5-minute delay
Provisional2 buys are too recent to evaluate at this delay: the market data after them isn't indexed yet, so they're left out of these numbers. Computed Oct 26, 2026, 02:33 UTC.
Only 13% of this trader's buys could be fully copied at a 5-minute delay, and another 8% only partly; the +$2,314 comes from the part you could copy. A copier who mirrored 0x7b02…4991's 738 buys across 16 markets with a 5-minute delay and $100 per trade would have kept only 49% of the leader's returns: +$2,314 against +$4,772 for the leader at the same size. Most of the edge is eaten before a follower can act: delay cost $2,286, slippage $10.92 and fees $160.66. In the backtest, this simulated copy would have tied up to $10,474 at once across 150 positions.
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Key numbers
The headline numbers only count what real trades in the 10 minutes after the delay prove. “Including estimates” also counts the unproven part of a buy when order-book or trading-volume evidence says it was fillable, at an estimated price. Treat it as an upper view, not a promise. 279 estimated: 125 high · 121 medium · 33 low · 347 thin How we estimate
Cumulative PnL across all copied positions
Final values: 0 min: +$1,435; 1 min: +$1,424; 5 min: +$2,314; 30 min: +$641.33. Max drawdown −$121.07 (5 min, Oct 25). Hover or use the arrow keys to read values.
Chart data by day
| Day (UTC) | 0 min | 1 min | 5 min | 30 min |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 23 | +$928.38 | +$928.38 | +$1,847 | +$674.23 |
| Sep 24 | +$1,192 | +$1,186 | +$2,106 | +$742.73 |
| Sep 25 | +$1,192 | +$1,187 | +$2,104 | +$743.65 |
| Sep 26 | +$1,192 | +$1,187 | +$2,104 | +$743.65 |
| Sep 27 | +$1,192 | +$1,188 | +$2,105 | +$727.47 |
| Sep 28 | +$1,191 | +$1,188 | +$2,105 | +$724.87 |
| Sep 29 | +$1,234 | +$1,195 | +$2,108 | +$706.89 |
| Sep 30 | +$1,248 | +$1,209 | +$2,116 | +$704.26 |
| Oct 1 | +$1,248 | +$1,209 | +$2,116 | +$704.26 |
| Oct 2 | +$1,248 | +$1,209 | +$2,116 | +$704.26 |
| Oct 3 | +$1,246 | +$1,209 | +$2,116 | +$696.17 |
| Oct 4 | +$1,246 | +$1,209 | +$2,116 | +$696.17 |
| Oct 5 | +$1,246 | +$1,209 | +$2,116 | +$696.17 |
| Oct 6 | +$1,246 | +$1,209 | +$2,116 | +$696.17 |
| Oct 7 | +$1,246 | +$1,209 | +$2,116 | +$696.17 |
| Oct 8 | +$1,246 | +$1,209 | +$2,116 | +$696.17 |
| Oct 9 | +$1,246 | +$1,209 | +$2,116 | +$696.17 |
| Oct 10 | +$1,246 | +$1,208 | +$2,116 | +$696.17 |
| Oct 11 | +$1,245 | +$1,208 | +$2,116 | +$690.74 |
| Oct 12 | +$1,238 | +$1,205 | +$2,114 | +$690.74 |
| Oct 13 | +$1,237 | +$1,202 | +$2,114 | +$690.74 |
| Oct 14 | +$1,312 | +$1,442 | +$2,356 | +$703.78 |
| Oct 15 | +$1,484 | +$1,450 | +$2,355 | +$703.30 |
| Oct 16 | +$1,502 | +$1,468 | +$2,355 | +$703.30 |
| Oct 17 | +$1,502 | +$1,468 | +$2,355 | +$703.30 |
| Oct 18 | +$1,502 | +$1,468 | +$2,355 | +$703.30 |
| Oct 19 | +$1,433 | +$1,407 | +$2,294 | +$656.69 |
| Oct 20 | +$1,464 | +$1,433 | +$2,338 | +$679.97 |
| Oct 21 | +$1,545 | +$1,508 | +$2,418 | +$770.89 |
| Oct 22 | +$1,531 | +$1,507 | +$2,418 | +$741.10 |
| Oct 23 | +$1,531 | +$1,507 | +$2,418 | +$741.10 |
| Oct 24 | +$1,531 | +$1,507 | +$2,418 | +$741.10 |
| Oct 25 | +$1,460 | +$1,431 | +$2,319 | +$648.10 |
| Oct 26 | +$1,435 | +$1,424 | +$2,314 | +$641.33 |
Every delay side by side
| Delay | Follower PnL | Kept | Filled |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 min | +$1,435 | 30.1% | 13% |
| 1 min | +$1,424 | 29.9% | 13% |
| 5 min (selected) | +$2,314 | 48.5% | 13% |
| 30 min | +$641.33 | 13.4% | 8% |
Where the returns go
- Leader PnL at your size+$4,772
- Delay cost−$2,286
- Slippage−$10.92
- Fees (buys $160.46 · sells $0.20)−$160.66
- Follower PnL+$2,314
Leader PnL is scaled to your per-trade size. Delay cost is the price move between the leader's fill and yours; slippage is walking the book to fill your size; fees use the 2026 fee schedule. Methodology.
By category
| Category | Trades | Follower PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Politics | 667 | +$1,955 | +19.6% |
| Economy | 69 | +$359.55 | +69.5% |
Trades
Each leader buy and the copy we simulated at the selected delay. Open “Details” to see the market fills behind the copy price.
How fills are simulated: a copy can only fill against real taker buys of the same outcome within 10 minutes after the delay, so the headline numbers are conservative. Fill basis adds a second opinion: where no trade proved a fill, order-book or volume evidence may say the size was still fillable (an estimate, never in the headline). Methodology.
Filled whole order · Partial (NN%) part of it · No buyers nobody bought in the window — not counted · Data not in yet too recent to evaluate
| Date | Market | Leader price | Copy price | Fill | Fill basis | Follower PnL | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trades load from the live API when this section is visible. | |||||||
More Politics traders
- 0x55b4…80eaBeat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0x24c8…23e1Beat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0x614d…1546Beat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0x9352…2227Keeps 39% at a 5-minute delay
- 0xab19…4876Keeps 45% at a 5-minute delay
- 0x6bab…0fe5Keeps 43% at a 5-minute delay
See the full Politics copyability board, read the methodology, or learn how slippage and fees eat into copied returns.
This is a simulation built from historical on-chain fills; it is not a record of real copy trades. Past results don't predict future results. Only the wallet address and its public Polymarket name are shown.