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In backtest, only 32% of 0x7cf9…2798's buys could be fully copied at a 5-minute delay

Politics 0x7cf93583951552553bc0d243a8582a3410ed2798 Profile on Polymarket

Only 32% of this trader's buys could be fully copied at a 5-minute delay, and another 15% only partly; the −$9,450 comes from the part you could copy. A copier who mirrored 0x7cf9…2798's 1,773 buys across 11 markets with a 5-minute delay and $100 per trade would have ended at −$9,450. The leader lost $7,379 at the same size, so there were no returns to keep: delay cost $837.09, slippage $19.34 and fees $1,215. In the backtest, this simulated copy would have tied up to $62,198 at once across 831 positions.

Copy delay

Each time the trader buys, the simulation copies this much. Not a total budget.

Key numbers

Follower PnL
−$9,450
Incl. estimates −$22,164
Max drawdown −$13,789
ROI −15.1% on total cost
Returns kept
n/a (The leader lost money at this size, so there were no returns to keep)
Leader, same size −$7,379
leader lost money
Peak capital in use
$62,198
Incl. estimates $143,527
1,773 copied buys · $62,650 total cost
Fill rate
32%
Most buys couldn't be fully copied
Incl. estimates 78%
571 filled · 260 partial · 942 no buyers
Backtest score
23/100
1,773 buys · 11 markets

The headline numbers only count what real trades in the 10 minutes after the delay prove. “Including estimates” also counts the unproven part of a buy when order-book or trading-volume evidence says it was fillable, at an estimated price. Treat it as an upper view, not a promise. 907 estimated: 290 high · 515 medium · 102 low · 271 thin How we estimate

Cumulative PnL across all copied positions

X axis
Max drawdown −$14k

Final values: 0 min: −$9,096; 1 min: −$9,801; 5 min: −$9,450; 30 min: −$9,749. Max drawdown −$13,789 (5 min, Oct 14). Hover or use the arrow keys to read values.

Chart data by day
Day (UTC)0 min1 min5 min30 min
Sep 21+$561.70+$295.86+$547.64+$1,066
Sep 22−$32.76−$248.95−$312.05+$209.84
Sep 23−$3,509−$3,932−$3,098−$1,823
Sep 24−$2,658−$3,753−$3,270−$1,935
Sep 25−$1,133−$2,514−$2,020−$1,706
Sep 26−$1,132−$2,513−$2,040−$1,799
Sep 27−$965.83−$2,348−$1,874−$1,801
Sep 28+$796.87−$752.51−$1,565−$1,667
Sep 29+$836.20−$900.35−$1,693−$1,574
Sep 30−$2,214−$3,550−$3,878−$3,424
Oct 1−$2,869−$4,172−$4,487−$3,837
Oct 2−$6,712−$7,818−$8,298−$7,790
Oct 3−$6,712−$7,818−$8,298−$7,790
Oct 4−$6,712−$7,818−$8,298−$7,790
Oct 5−$6,926−$7,992−$8,655−$7,794
Oct 6−$6,660−$7,763−$8,401−$7,401
Oct 7−$6,660−$7,763−$8,401−$7,401
Oct 8−$7,151−$8,178−$8,541−$7,472
Oct 9−$7,151−$8,178−$8,541−$7,472
Oct 10−$7,151−$8,178−$8,541−$7,472
Oct 11−$7,151−$8,178−$8,541−$7,472
Oct 12−$7,151−$8,177−$8,541−$7,472
Oct 13−$7,590−$8,555−$9,019−$7,536
Oct 14−$7,676−$8,561−$8,825−$7,738
Oct 15−$8,009−$8,733−$8,771−$8,587
Oct 16−$7,478−$8,261−$8,296−$8,445
Oct 17−$7,478−$8,261−$8,296−$8,445
Oct 18−$7,478−$8,261−$8,296−$8,445
Oct 19−$7,758−$8,474−$8,668−$8,794
Oct 20−$8,651−$9,364−$9,027−$9,608
Oct 21−$8,893−$9,605−$9,262−$9,613
Oct 22−$8,952−$9,656−$9,341−$9,614
Oct 23−$9,042−$9,757−$9,436−$9,664
Oct 24−$9,042−$9,757−$9,436−$9,664
Oct 25−$9,095−$9,801−$9,450−$9,740
Oct 26−$9,096−$9,801−$9,450−$9,749

Every delay side by side

DelayFollower PnLKeptFilled
0 min−$9,096n/a (The leader lost money at this size, so there were no returns to keep)36%
1 min−$9,801n/a (The leader lost money at this size, so there were no returns to keep)34%
5 min (selected)−$9,450n/a (The leader lost money at this size, so there were no returns to keep)32%
30 min−$9,749n/a (The leader lost money at this size, so there were no returns to keep)28%

Where the returns go

  1. Leader PnL at your size−$7,379
  2. Delay cost−$837.09
  3. Slippage−$19.34
  4. Fees (buys $1,209 · sells $6.03)−$1,215
  5. Follower PnL−$9,450

Leader PnL is scaled to your per-trade size. Delay cost is the price move between the leader's fill and yours; slippage is walking the book to fill your size; fees use the 2026 fee schedule. Methodology.

By category

CategoryTradesFollower PnLROI
Politics1,747−$9,900−15.9%
Economy21+$456.65+140%
Finance4−$9.71−9.6%
Sports1+$2.33+5.0%

Data version 12074 · computed Oct 26, 2026 · 1,770 unsettled positions marked at the last traded price.

Trades

Each leader buy and the copy we simulated at the selected delay. Open “Details” to see the market fills behind the copy price.

How fills are simulated: a copy can only fill against real taker buys of the same outcome within 10 minutes after the delay, so the headline numbers are conservative. Fill basis adds a second opinion: where no trade proved a fill, order-book or volume evidence may say the size was still fillable (an estimate, never in the headline). Methodology.

Filled whole order · Partial (NN%) part of it · No buyers nobody bought in the window — not counted · Data not in yet too recent to evaluate

Show
Order
Date Market Leader price Copy price Fill Fill basis Follower PnL Details
Trades load from the live API when this section is visible.
Page 1

More Politics traders

See the full Politics copyability board, read the methodology, or learn how slippage and fees eat into copied returns.

This is a simulation built from historical on-chain fills; it is not a record of real copy trades. Past results don't predict future results. Only the wallet address and its public Polymarket name are shown.