In backtest, only 8% of 0xcdb1…276c's buys could be fully copied at a 5-minute delay
ProvisionalIncludes trades from the last ~40 minutes, so these results may still change. Computed Oct 26, 2026, 02:18 UTC.
Only 8% of this trader's buys could be fully copied at a 5-minute delay, and another 5% only partly; the +$292.61 comes from the part you could copy. A copier who mirrored 0xcdb1…276c's 1,193 buys across 126 markets with a 5-minute delay and $100 per trade would have kept only 24% of the leader's returns: +$292.61 against +$1,240 for the leader at the same size. Most of the edge is eaten before a follower can act: delay cost $772.23, slippage helped by +$8.27 and fees $183.28. In the backtest, this simulated copy would have tied up to $3,011 at once across 149 positions.
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Key numbers
The headline numbers only count what real trades in the 10 minutes after the delay prove. “Including estimates” also counts the unproven part of a buy when order-book or trading-volume evidence says it was fillable, at an estimated price. Treat it as an upper view, not a promise. 1,021 estimated: 671 high · 211 medium · 139 low · 77 thin How we estimate
Cumulative PnL across all copied positions
Final values: 0 min: +$1,108; 1 min: +$901.45; 5 min: +$292.61; 30 min: +$709.89. Max drawdown −$134.92 (5 min, Sep 30). Hover or use the arrow keys to read values.
Chart data by day
| Day (UTC) | 0 min | 1 min | 5 min | 30 min |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 21 | +$1.94 | +$1.94 | +$1.93 | $0.00 |
| Sep 22 | +$113.05 | +$108.05 | +$122.45 | +$85.34 |
| Sep 23 | +$108.40 | +$29.67 | +$118.62 | +$64.64 |
| Sep 24 | +$117.09 | −$12.39 | +$102.27 | +$65.86 |
| Sep 25 | +$128.76 | −$10.54 | +$105.51 | +$74.19 |
| Sep 26 | +$195.52 | +$50.81 | +$132.52 | +$127.20 |
| Sep 27 | +$195.52 | +$50.81 | +$132.52 | +$127.20 |
| Sep 28 | +$138.97 | −$4.63 | +$113.57 | +$115.83 |
| Sep 29 | +$701.74 | +$466.10 | +$283.52 | +$743.43 |
| Sep 30 | +$852.16 | +$252.25 | +$271.14 | +$728.35 |
| Oct 1 | +$853.38 | +$254.74 | +$275.44 | +$726.59 |
| Oct 2 | +$870.88 | +$252.12 | +$267.38 | +$742.22 |
| Oct 3 | +$863.12 | +$248.93 | +$267.35 | +$736.97 |
| Oct 4 | +$863.12 | +$248.93 | +$267.35 | +$736.97 |
| Oct 5 | +$863.12 | +$248.93 | +$267.35 | +$736.97 |
| Oct 6 | +$869.11 | +$372.38 | +$277.23 | +$737.60 |
| Oct 7 | +$884.87 | +$383.98 | +$277.35 | +$737.97 |
| Oct 8 | +$884.86 | +$383.98 | +$277.35 | +$737.97 |
| Oct 9 | +$878.62 | +$384.51 | +$272.80 | +$732.27 |
| Oct 10 | +$878.62 | +$384.51 | +$273.50 | +$732.73 |
| Oct 11 | +$876.80 | +$383.40 | +$273.50 | +$732.73 |
| Oct 12 | +$877.05 | +$383.77 | +$273.87 | +$732.73 |
| Oct 13 | +$1,216 | +$961.98 | +$374.12 | +$732.36 |
| Oct 14 | +$1,245 | +$997.63 | +$350.83 | +$725.72 |
| Oct 15 | +$1,245 | +$997.63 | +$350.83 | +$742.96 |
| Oct 16 | +$1,229 | +$963.29 | +$317.59 | +$786.42 |
| Oct 17 | +$1,229 | +$963.29 | +$317.59 | +$786.42 |
| Oct 18 | +$1,230 | +$963.24 | +$332.42 | +$786.42 |
| Oct 19 | +$1,144 | +$922.31 | +$306.37 | +$710.49 |
| Oct 20 | +$1,147 | +$925.58 | +$306.73 | +$717.66 |
| Oct 21 | +$1,147 | +$925.58 | +$306.73 | +$717.66 |
| Oct 22 | +$1,148 | +$933.63 | +$308.83 | +$707.60 |
| Oct 23 | +$1,115 | +$904.51 | +$291.01 | +$711.32 |
| Oct 24 | +$1,112 | +$902.43 | +$291.11 | +$709.90 |
| Oct 25 | +$1,108 | +$901.44 | +$292.60 | +$709.89 |
| Oct 26 | +$1,108 | +$901.45 | +$292.61 | +$709.89 |
Every delay side by side
| Delay | Follower PnL | Kept | Filled |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 min | +$1,108 | 89.3% | 13% |
| 1 min | +$901.45 | 72.7% | 11% |
| 5 min (selected) | +$292.61 | 23.6% | 8% |
| 30 min | +$709.89 | 57.3% | 5% |
Where the returns go
- Leader PnL at your size+$1,240
- Delay cost−$772.23
- Slippage helped+$8.27
- Fees (buys $99.48 · sells $83.80)−$183.28
- Follower PnL+$292.61
Leader PnL is scaled to your per-trade size. Delay cost is the price move between the leader's fill and yours; slippage is walking the book to fill your size; fees use the 2026 fee schedule. Methodology.
By category
| Category | Trades | Follower PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Finance | 602 | +$114.30 | +34.8% |
| Politics | 306 | +$148.19 | +1.8% |
| Economy | 167 | −$19.32 | −2.0% |
| Geopolitics | 59 | −$89.54 | −18.5% |
| Crypto | 36 | $0.00 | 0.0% |
| Tech | 20 | +$142.91 | +69.7% |
| Culture | 2 | −$3.93 | −78.7% |
| Sports | 1 | $0.00 | 0.0% |
Trades
Each leader buy and the copy we simulated at the selected delay. Open “Details” to see the market fills behind the copy price.
How fills are simulated: a copy can only fill against real taker buys of the same outcome within 10 minutes after the delay, so the headline numbers are conservative. Fill basis adds a second opinion: where no trade proved a fill, order-book or volume evidence may say the size was still fillable (an estimate, never in the headline). Methodology.
Filled whole order · Partial (NN%) part of it · No buyers nobody bought in the window — not counted · Data not in yet too recent to evaluate
| Date | Market | Leader price | Copy price | Fill | Fill basis | Follower PnL | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trades load from the live API when this section is visible. | |||||||
More Finance traders
- 0xf9e1…0458Beat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0x9994…08b0Beat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0xedc8…3296Beat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0x06b2…9f35Keeps 10% at a 5-minute delay
- 0x4060…3ec3Keeps 8% at a 5-minute delay
- 0x4025…88b6Leader lost money at this size
See the full Finance copyability board, read the methodology, or learn how slippage and fees eat into copied returns.
This is a simulation built from historical on-chain fills; it is not a record of real copy trades. Past results don't predict future results. Only the wallet address and its public Polymarket name are shown.