In backtest, only 19% of 0xbacd…ab35's buys could be fully copied at a 5-minute delay
Provisional
Only 19% of this trader's buys could be fully copied at a 5-minute delay, and another 13% only partly; the −$8,758 comes from the part you could copy. A copier who mirrored 0xbacd…ab35's 4,696 buys across 326 markets with a 5-minute delay and $100 per trade would have ended at −$8,758. The leader lost $13,474 at the same size, so there were no returns to keep: the delay helped by +$6,063, slippage helped by +$135.16 and fees $1,482. In the backtest, this simulated copy would have tied up to $49,233 at once across 1,480 positions.
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Key numbers
The headline numbers only count what real trades in the 10 minutes after the delay prove. “Including estimates” also counts the unproven part of a buy when order-book or trading-volume evidence says it was fillable, at an estimated price. Treat it as an upper view, not a promise. 2,383 estimated: 470 high · 1,261 medium · 652 low · 1,318 thin How we estimate
Cumulative PnL across all copied positions
Final values: 0 min: −$7,189; 1 min: −$7,539; 5 min: −$8,758; 30 min: +$402.96. Max drawdown −$11,389 (5 min, Oct 16). Hover or use the arrow keys to read values.
Chart data by day
| Day (UTC) | 0 min | 1 min | 5 min | 30 min |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 21 | −$131.41 | −$25.67 | −$112.06 | +$28.24 |
| Sep 22 | +$3,952 | +$3,541 | +$2,143 | +$1,670 |
| Sep 23 | +$3,809 | +$3,163 | +$2,226 | +$2,960 |
| Sep 24 | +$4,577 | +$4,051 | +$2,256 | +$2,978 |
| Sep 25 | +$4,299 | +$4,080 | +$2,078 | +$2,933 |
| Sep 26 | +$4,013 | +$3,935 | +$1,920 | +$2,727 |
| Sep 27 | +$4,229 | +$4,246 | +$2,185 | +$2,546 |
| Sep 28 | +$3,954 | +$3,952 | +$2,069 | +$1,699 |
| Sep 29 | +$1,217 | +$1,424 | −$385.70 | +$1,024 |
| Sep 30 | −$3,409 | −$3,039 | −$4,515 | −$1,187 |
| Oct 1 | −$3,982 | −$3,594 | −$4,896 | −$883.27 |
| Oct 2 | −$1,573 | −$2,129 | −$4,202 | −$250.86 |
| Oct 3 | −$3,334 | −$3,602 | −$6,490 | −$2,161 |
| Oct 4 | −$3,535 | −$4,434 | −$7,123 | +$2,051 |
| Oct 5 | −$4,795 | −$5,913 | −$8,470 | +$949.27 |
| Oct 6 | −$4,811 | −$5,927 | −$8,464 | +$939.33 |
| Oct 7 | −$5,077 | −$6,171 | −$8,704 | +$880.29 |
| Oct 8 | −$4,721 | −$5,620 | −$8,200 | +$1,231 |
| Oct 9 | −$3,670 | −$4,429 | −$6,539 | +$1,334 |
| Oct 10 | −$3,671 | −$4,435 | −$6,534 | +$1,336 |
| Oct 11 | −$4,385 | −$5,009 | −$6,475 | +$1,420 |
| Oct 12 | −$4,201 | −$4,908 | −$6,366 | +$1,536 |
| Oct 13 | −$4,318 | −$5,023 | −$6,489 | +$1,173 |
| Oct 14 | −$4,693 | −$5,336 | −$6,723 | +$1,258 |
| Oct 15 | −$6,196 | −$6,619 | −$7,777 | +$714.90 |
| Oct 16 | −$7,189 | −$7,539 | −$8,758 | +$402.96 |
Every delay side by side
| Delay | Follower PnL | Kept | Filled |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 min | −$7,189 | n/a (The leader lost money at this size, so there were no returns to keep) | 23% |
| 1 min | −$7,539 | n/a (The leader lost money at this size, so there were no returns to keep) | 21% |
| 5 min (selected) | −$8,758 | n/a (The leader lost money at this size, so there were no returns to keep) | 19% |
| 30 min | +$402.96 | n/a (The leader lost money at this size, so there were no returns to keep) | 16% |
Where the returns go
- Leader PnL at your size−$13,474
- Delay helped+$6,063
- Slippage helped+$135.16
- Fees (buys $1,319 · sells $162.67)−$1,482
- Follower PnL−$8,758
Leader PnL is scaled to your per-trade size. Delay cost is the price move between the leader's fill and yours; slippage is walking the book to fill your size; fees use the 2026 fee schedule. Methodology.
By category
| Category | Trades | Follower PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Politics | 4,361 | −$5,066 | −5.3% |
| Tech | 119 | −$3,631 | −94.5% |
| Geopolitics | 106 | −$82.40 | −22.1% |
| Economy | 55 | −$39.76 | −8.3% |
| Finance | 29 | +$60.50 | +15.7% |
| Culture | 23 | +$1.38 | +0.4% |
| Sports | 3 | $0.00 | 0.0% |
Trades
Each leader buy and the copy we simulated at the selected delay. Open “Details” to see the market fills behind the copy price.
How fills are simulated: a copy can only fill against real taker buys of the same outcome within 10 minutes after the delay, so the headline numbers are conservative. Fill basis adds a second opinion: where no trade proved a fill, order-book or volume evidence may say the size was still fillable (an estimate, never in the headline). Methodology.
Filled whole order · Partial (NN%) part of it · No buyers nobody bought in the window — not counted · Data not in yet too recent to evaluate
| Date | Market | Leader price | Copy price | Fill | Fill basis | Follower PnL | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trades load from the live API when this section is visible. | |||||||
More Politics traders
- 0x55b4…80eaBeat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0x24c8…23e1Beat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0x614d…1546Beat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0xc021…1fa8Keeps 2% at a 5-minute delay
- 0xc851…cd2aLeader lost money at this size
- 0xcbab…9a8aLeader lost money at this size
See the full Politics copyability board, read the methodology, or learn how slippage and fees eat into copied returns.
This is a simulation built from historical on-chain fills; it is not a record of real copy trades. Past results don't predict future results. Only the wallet address and its public Polymarket name are shown.