In backtest, only 21% of 0xc851…cd2a's buys could be fully copied at a 5-minute delay
Provisional
Only 21% of this trader's buys could be fully copied at a 5-minute delay, and another 17% only partly; the −$3,913 comes from the part you could copy. A copier who mirrored 0xc851…cd2a's 584 buys across 47 markets with a 5-minute delay and $100 per trade would have ended at −$3,913. The leader lost $6,047 at the same size, so there were no returns to keep: the delay helped by +$2,475, slippage $19.57 and fees $321.09. In the backtest, this simulated copy would have tied up to $9,052 at once across 221 positions.
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Key numbers
The headline numbers only count what real trades in the 10 minutes after the delay prove. “Including estimates” also counts the unproven part of a buy when order-book or trading-volume evidence says it was fillable, at an estimated price. Treat it as an upper view, not a promise. 309 estimated: 144 high · 95 medium · 70 low · 134 thin How we estimate
Cumulative PnL across all copied positions
Final values: 0 min: −$5,704; 1 min: −$5,056; 5 min: −$3,913; 30 min: −$2,833. Max drawdown −$3,939 (5 min, Oct 23). Hover or use the arrow keys to read values.
Chart data by day
| Day (UTC) | 0 min | 1 min | 5 min | 30 min |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 21 | −$625.94 | −$409.47 | −$416.24 | −$201.28 |
| Sep 22 | −$347.37 | −$104.95 | −$198.38 | −$66.50 |
| Sep 23 | −$402.88 | −$173.46 | −$334.53 | −$512.58 |
| Sep 24 | −$729.46 | −$499.97 | −$572.09 | −$752.16 |
| Sep 25 | −$847.03 | −$617.56 | −$622.98 | −$781.19 |
| Sep 26 | −$855.79 | −$703.14 | −$697.99 | −$899.21 |
| Sep 27 | −$1,049 | −$898.05 | −$810.15 | −$942.69 |
| Sep 28 | −$1,075 | −$903.02 | −$815.13 | −$943.09 |
| Sep 29 | −$1,772 | −$1,497 | −$1,335 | −$1,352 |
| Sep 30 | −$1,772 | −$1,497 | −$1,335 | −$1,352 |
| Oct 1 | −$2,070 | −$1,881 | −$1,689 | −$1,470 |
| Oct 2 | −$2,263 | −$2,053 | −$1,870 | −$1,487 |
| Oct 3 | −$2,459 | −$2,286 | −$2,159 | −$1,559 |
| Oct 4 | −$2,459 | −$2,286 | −$2,159 | −$1,559 |
| Oct 5 | −$2,459 | −$2,286 | −$2,159 | −$1,559 |
| Oct 6 | −$2,459 | −$2,286 | −$2,159 | −$1,559 |
| Oct 7 | −$2,468 | −$2,292 | −$2,165 | −$1,575 |
| Oct 8 | −$2,672 | −$2,497 | −$2,165 | −$1,575 |
| Oct 9 | −$2,926 | −$2,732 | −$2,297 | −$1,602 |
| Oct 10 | −$3,098 | −$2,841 | −$2,303 | −$1,702 |
| Oct 11 | −$3,318 | −$3,049 | −$2,324 | −$1,702 |
| Oct 12 | −$3,772 | −$3,455 | −$2,623 | −$1,881 |
| Oct 13 | −$4,240 | −$3,862 | −$2,924 | −$2,120 |
| Oct 14 | −$4,470 | −$4,079 | −$2,968 | −$2,407 |
| Oct 15 | −$4,544 | −$4,076 | −$3,045 | −$2,396 |
| Oct 16 | −$4,471 | −$4,007 | −$3,001 | −$2,324 |
| Oct 17 | −$4,549 | −$4,013 | −$3,127 | −$2,429 |
| Oct 18 | −$4,549 | −$4,013 | −$3,127 | −$2,429 |
| Oct 19 | −$4,807 | −$4,207 | −$3,269 | −$2,412 |
| Oct 20 | −$4,681 | −$4,091 | −$3,185 | −$2,315 |
| Oct 21 | −$4,590 | −$3,994 | −$3,103 | −$2,302 |
| Oct 22 | −$5,447 | −$4,798 | −$3,650 | −$2,572 |
| Oct 23 | −$5,540 | −$5,087 | −$3,939 | −$2,864 |
| Oct 24 | −$5,735 | −$5,087 | −$3,939 | −$2,864 |
| Oct 25 | −$5,704 | −$5,056 | −$3,913 | −$2,833 |
Every delay side by side
| Delay | Follower PnL | Kept | Filled |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 min | −$5,704 | n/a (The leader lost money at this size, so there were no returns to keep) | 28% |
| 1 min | −$5,056 | n/a (The leader lost money at this size, so there were no returns to keep) | 24% |
| 5 min (selected) | −$3,913 | n/a (The leader lost money at this size, so there were no returns to keep) | 21% |
| 30 min | −$2,833 | n/a (The leader lost money at this size, so there were no returns to keep) | 14% |
Where the returns go
- Leader PnL at your size−$6,047
- Delay helped+$2,475
- Slippage−$19.57
- Fees (buys $284.86 · sells $36.23)−$321.09
- Follower PnL−$3,913
Leader PnL is scaled to your per-trade size. Delay cost is the price move between the leader's fill and yours; slippage is walking the book to fill your size; fees use the 2026 fee schedule. Methodology.
By category
| Category | Trades | Follower PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Politics | 572 | −$3,941 | −27.1% |
| Geopolitics | 4 | −$128.00 | −85.3% |
| Sports | 4 | +$134.75 | +44.9% |
| Economy | 2 | $0.00 | 0.0% |
| Finance | 2 | +$21.07 | +21.1% |
Trades
Each leader buy and the copy we simulated at the selected delay. Open “Details” to see the market fills behind the copy price.
How fills are simulated: a copy can only fill against real taker buys of the same outcome within 10 minutes after the delay, so the headline numbers are conservative. Fill basis adds a second opinion: where no trade proved a fill, order-book or volume evidence may say the size was still fillable (an estimate, never in the headline). Methodology.
Filled whole order · Partial (NN%) part of it · No buyers nobody bought in the window — not counted · Data not in yet too recent to evaluate
| Date | Market | Leader price | Copy price | Fill | Fill basis | Follower PnL | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trades load from the live API when this section is visible. | |||||||
More Politics traders
- 0x55b4…80eaBeat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0x24c8…23e1Beat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0x614d…1546Beat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0xcbab…9a8aLeader lost money at this size
- 0xd3a7…3362Leader lost money at this size
- 0xe472…e7ebLeader lost money at this size
See the full Politics copyability board, read the methodology, or learn how slippage and fees eat into copied returns.
This is a simulation built from historical on-chain fills; it is not a record of real copy trades. Past results don't predict future results. Only the wallet address and its public Polymarket name are shown.