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In backtest, only 40% of 0xc670…b781's buys could be fully copied at a 5-minute delay

Sports 0xc670e1bef9fe213d0b5f49e89b06fba76b37b781 Profile on Polymarket

ProvisionalIncludes trades from the last ~40 minutes, so these results may still change. Computed Oct 26, 2026, 02:34 UTC.

Only 40% of this trader's buys could be fully copied at a 5-minute delay, and another 16% only partly; the −$6,493 comes from the part you could copy. A copier who mirrored 0xc670…b781's 2,547 buys across 509 markets with a 5-minute delay and $100 per trade would have ended at −$6,493. The leader lost $494.29 at the same size, so there were no returns to keep: delay cost $1,252, slippage helped by +$267.39 and fees $5,014. In the backtest, this simulated copy would have tied up to $2,027 at once across 1,446 positions.

Copy delay

Each time the trader buys, the simulation copies this much. Not a total budget.

Key numbers

Follower PnL
−$6,493
Incl. estimates −$7,866
Max drawdown −$6,493
ROI −5.7% on total cost
Returns kept
n/a (The leader lost money at this size, so there were no returns to keep)
Leader, same size −$494.29
leader lost money
Peak capital in use
$2,027
Incl. estimates $6,150
2,547 copied buys · $114,591 total cost
Fill rate
40%
Most buys couldn't be fully copied
Incl. estimates 93%
1,027 filled · 419 partial · 1,101 no buyers
Backtest score
25/100
2,547 buys · 509 markets

The headline numbers only count what real trades in the 10 minutes after the delay prove. “Including estimates” also counts the unproven part of a buy when order-book or trading-volume evidence says it was fillable, at an estimated price. Treat it as an upper view, not a promise. 1,405 estimated: 361 high · 962 medium · 82 low · 108 thin How we estimate

Cumulative PnL across all copied positions

X axis
Max drawdown −$6.5k

Final values: 0 min: −$6,805; 1 min: −$5,850; 5 min: −$6,493; 30 min: −$7,887. Max drawdown −$6,493 (5 min, Oct 26). Hover or use the arrow keys to read values.

Chart data by day
Day (UTC)0 min1 min5 min30 min
Sep 21−$505.46−$519.44−$259.80−$601.30
Sep 22−$853.88−$950.20−$475.83−$1,690
Sep 23−$834.55−$787.55−$684.03−$1,853
Sep 24−$897.78−$852.12−$807.30−$1,961
Sep 25−$1,244−$1,029−$1,618−$2,835
Sep 26−$1,654−$1,371−$1,945−$3,139
Sep 27−$1,817−$1,578−$2,160−$3,321
Sep 28−$1,817−$1,578−$2,160−$3,321
Sep 29−$1,741−$1,030−$2,249−$3,366
Sep 30−$1,827−$1,077−$2,218−$3,578
Oct 1−$1,715−$905.45−$2,156−$3,777
Oct 2−$1,528−$799.74−$1,944−$3,702
Oct 3−$1,847−$1,114−$2,050−$4,073
Oct 4−$2,052−$1,284−$2,181−$4,198
Oct 5−$2,186−$1,416−$2,345−$4,898
Oct 6−$2,788−$2,006−$2,553−$4,683
Oct 7−$3,221−$2,473−$3,190−$5,537
Oct 8−$3,392−$2,632−$3,262−$5,406
Oct 9−$3,360−$2,524−$3,200−$5,485
Oct 10−$3,717−$2,744−$3,272−$5,809
Oct 11−$3,837−$2,906−$3,229−$5,702
Oct 12−$4,094−$3,213−$3,481−$5,694
Oct 13−$4,294−$3,382−$3,652−$5,882
Oct 14−$4,389−$3,492−$3,718−$6,164
Oct 15−$4,904−$4,013−$4,062−$6,198
Oct 16−$5,792−$4,747−$4,433−$6,369
Oct 17−$5,798−$4,699−$4,798−$6,424
Oct 18−$5,808−$4,708−$4,802−$6,408
Oct 19−$5,808−$4,708−$4,802−$6,408
Oct 20−$5,803−$4,751−$4,931−$6,428
Oct 21−$5,947−$4,892−$4,973−$6,518
Oct 22−$6,122−$5,005−$5,130−$6,751
Oct 23−$5,888−$5,256−$5,507−$6,685
Oct 24−$6,043−$5,392−$5,838−$7,503
Oct 25−$6,794−$5,839−$6,482−$7,875
Oct 26−$6,805−$5,850−$6,493−$7,887

Every delay side by side

DelayFollower PnLKeptFilled
0 min−$6,805n/a (The leader lost money at this size, so there were no returns to keep)40%
1 min−$5,850n/a (The leader lost money at this size, so there were no returns to keep)40%
5 min (selected)−$6,493n/a (The leader lost money at this size, so there were no returns to keep)40%
30 min−$7,887n/a (The leader lost money at this size, so there were no returns to keep)46%

Where the returns go

  1. Leader PnL at your size−$494.29
  2. Delay cost−$1,252
  3. Slippage helped+$267.39
  4. Fees (buys $2,633 · sells $2,381)−$5,014
  5. Follower PnL−$6,493

Leader PnL is scaled to your per-trade size. Delay cost is the price move between the leader's fill and yours; slippage is walking the book to fill your size; fees use the 2026 fee schedule. Methodology.

By category

CategoryTradesFollower PnLROI
Sports2,541−$6,461−5.7%
Crypto6−$31.27−20.4%

Data version 12088 · computed Oct 26, 2026 · 52 unsettled positions marked at the last traded price.

Trades

Each leader buy and the copy we simulated at the selected delay. Open “Details” to see the market fills behind the copy price.

How fills are simulated: a copy can only fill against real taker buys of the same outcome within 10 minutes after the delay, so the headline numbers are conservative. Fill basis adds a second opinion: where no trade proved a fill, order-book or volume evidence may say the size was still fillable (an estimate, never in the headline). Methodology.

Filled whole order · Partial (NN%) part of it · No buyers nobody bought in the window — not counted · Data not in yet too recent to evaluate

Show
Order
Date Market Leader price Copy price Fill Fill basis Follower PnL Details
Trades load from the live API when this section is visible.
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More Sports traders

See the full Sports copyability board, read the methodology, or learn how slippage and fees eat into copied returns.

This is a simulation built from historical on-chain fills; it is not a record of real copy trades. Past results don't predict future results. Only the wallet address and its public Polymarket name are shown.