In backtest, only 12% of 0xcbd0…dec4's buys could be fully copied at a 5-minute delay
Provisional
Only 12% of this trader's buys could be fully copied at a 5-minute delay, and another 13% only partly; the −$5.57 comes from the part you could copy. A copier who mirrored 0xcbd0…dec4's 1,209 buys across 458 markets with a 5-minute delay and $100 per trade would have ended at −$5.57. The leader lost $912.84 at the same size, so there were no returns to keep: the delay helped by +$922.79, slippage helped by +$4.90 and fees $20.42. In the backtest, this simulated copy would have tied up to $1,425 at once across 306 positions.
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Key numbers
The headline numbers only count what real trades in the 10 minutes after the delay prove. “Including estimates” also counts the unproven part of a buy when order-book or trading-volume evidence says it was fillable, at an estimated price. Treat it as an upper view, not a promise. 875 estimated: 252 high · 500 medium · 123 low · 176 thin How we estimate
Cumulative PnL across all copied positions
Final values: 0 min: −$204.11; 1 min: −$221.35; 5 min: −$5.57; 30 min: +$211.83. Max drawdown −$389.48 (5 min, Oct 16). Hover or use the arrow keys to read values.
Chart data by day
| Day (UTC) | 0 min | 1 min | 5 min | 30 min |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 21 | +$11.36 | +$15.27 | +$13.19 | +$5.43 |
| Sep 22 | +$37.66 | +$41.32 | +$34.50 | +$24.88 |
| Sep 23 | +$69.49 | +$67.33 | +$65.55 | +$56.30 |
| Sep 24 | +$106.63 | +$109.13 | +$81.84 | +$150.65 |
| Sep 25 | +$195.89 | +$187.55 | +$106.44 | +$152.94 |
| Sep 26 | +$195.89 | +$187.55 | +$106.44 | +$152.94 |
| Sep 27 | +$195.89 | +$187.55 | +$106.44 | +$152.94 |
| Sep 28 | +$229.79 | +$218.91 | +$128.81 | +$168.14 |
| Sep 29 | +$277.48 | +$258.75 | +$157.97 | +$203.58 |
| Sep 30 | +$195.79 | +$178.99 | +$158.18 | +$200.22 |
| Oct 1 | +$132.79 | +$139.18 | +$140.66 | +$244.77 |
| Oct 2 | +$156.66 | +$161.71 | +$158.28 | +$250.78 |
| Oct 3 | +$156.66 | +$161.71 | +$158.28 | +$250.78 |
| Oct 4 | +$156.66 | +$161.71 | +$158.28 | +$250.78 |
| Oct 5 | +$176.22 | +$179.12 | +$169.29 | +$251.07 |
| Oct 6 | +$199.76 | +$201.80 | +$195.58 | +$255.86 |
| Oct 7 | +$256.13 | +$251.87 | +$219.42 | +$286.74 |
| Oct 8 | +$340.20 | +$324.60 | +$251.64 | +$291.97 |
| Oct 9 | +$359.56 | +$341.33 | +$260.14 | +$291.97 |
| Oct 10 | +$360.57 | +$342.28 | +$260.53 | +$291.97 |
| Oct 11 | +$360.57 | +$342.28 | +$260.53 | +$291.97 |
| Oct 12 | +$383.01 | +$361.09 | +$277.17 | +$300.38 |
| Oct 13 | +$427.04 | +$391.42 | +$297.24 | +$316.73 |
| Oct 14 | −$39.15 | +$19.70 | +$134.36 | +$199.27 |
| Oct 15 | +$2.00 | +$48.84 | +$152.37 | +$208.54 |
| Oct 16 | −$317.50 | −$320.55 | −$71.78 | +$164.20 |
| Oct 17 | −$317.50 | −$320.55 | −$71.78 | +$164.20 |
| Oct 18 | −$317.50 | −$320.55 | −$71.78 | +$164.20 |
| Oct 19 | −$302.47 | −$301.41 | −$64.74 | +$179.21 |
| Oct 20 | −$275.58 | −$278.62 | −$43.54 | +$185.18 |
| Oct 21 | −$255.08 | −$261.27 | −$32.27 | +$201.71 |
| Oct 22 | −$241.21 | −$256.33 | −$28.20 | +$205.77 |
| Oct 23 | −$204.11 | −$221.35 | −$5.57 | +$211.83 |
Every delay side by side
| Delay | Follower PnL | Kept | Filled |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 min | −$204.11 | n/a (The leader lost money at this size, so there were no returns to keep) | 22% |
| 1 min | −$221.35 | n/a (The leader lost money at this size, so there were no returns to keep) | 19% |
| 5 min (selected) | −$5.57 | n/a (The leader lost money at this size, so there were no returns to keep) | 12% |
| 30 min | +$211.83 | n/a (The leader lost money at this size, so there were no returns to keep) | 6% |
Where the returns go
- Leader PnL at your size−$912.84
- Delay helped+$922.79
- Slippage helped+$4.90
- Fees (buys $20.42 · sells $0.00)−$20.42
- Follower PnL−$5.57
Leader PnL is scaled to your per-trade size. Delay cost is the price move between the leader's fill and yours; slippage is walking the book to fill your size; fees use the 2026 fee schedule. Methodology.
By category
| Category | Trades | Follower PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Finance | 1,196 | −$6.26 | 0.0% |
| Sports | 13 | +$0.69 | +0.8% |
Trades
Each leader buy and the copy we simulated at the selected delay. Open “Details” to see the market fills behind the copy price.
How fills are simulated: a copy can only fill against real taker buys of the same outcome within 10 minutes after the delay, so the headline numbers are conservative. Fill basis adds a second opinion: where no trade proved a fill, order-book or volume evidence may say the size was still fillable (an estimate, never in the headline). Methodology.
Filled whole order · Partial (NN%) part of it · No buyers nobody bought in the window — not counted · Data not in yet too recent to evaluate
| Date | Market | Leader price | Copy price | Fill | Fill basis | Follower PnL | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trades load from the live API when this section is visible. | |||||||
More Finance traders
- 0xf9e1…0458Beat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0x9994…08b0Beat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0xedc8…3296Beat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0x06ac…79ecLeader lost money at this size
- 0x74b4…6beaLeader lost money at this size
- 0x8cb4…b997Keeps 3% at a 5-minute delay
See the full Finance copyability board, read the methodology, or learn how slippage and fees eat into copied returns.
This is a simulation built from historical on-chain fills; it is not a record of real copy trades. Past results don't predict future results. Only the wallet address and its public Polymarket name are shown.