In backtest, only 10% of 0xd104…acef's buys could be fully copied at a 5-minute delay
Provisional
Only 10% of this trader's buys could be fully copied at a 5-minute delay, and another 8% only partly; the −$1,123 comes from the part you could copy. A copier who mirrored 0xd104…acef's 770 buys across 48 markets with a 5-minute delay and $100 per trade would have ended at −$1,123, while the leader made +$1,357 at the same size. At a 5-minute delay a follower can't keep up: delay cost $2,344, slippage $21.37 and fees $114.88 outweigh whatever edge the leader had. In the backtest, this simulated copy would have tied up to $4,496 at once across 134 positions.
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Key numbers
The headline numbers only count what real trades in the 10 minutes after the delay prove. “Including estimates” also counts the unproven part of a buy when order-book or trading-volume evidence says it was fillable, at an estimated price. Treat it as an upper view, not a promise. 445 estimated: 43 high · 315 medium · 87 low · 241 thin How we estimate
Cumulative PnL across all copied positions
Final values: 0 min: −$228.15; 1 min: +$262.61; 5 min: −$1,123; 30 min: −$2,954. Max drawdown −$1,526 (5 min, Oct 4). Hover or use the arrow keys to read values.
Chart data by day
| Day (UTC) | 0 min | 1 min | 5 min | 30 min |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 21 | −$19.07 | −$18.48 | −$302.80 | −$340.84 |
| Sep 22 | +$4.41 | +$30.75 | −$239.08 | −$1,094 |
| Sep 23 | −$4.54 | +$23.80 | −$250.44 | −$1,261 |
| Sep 24 | −$5.43 | +$22.95 | −$250.44 | −$1,261 |
| Sep 25 | −$5.28 | +$22.92 | −$250.47 | −$1,261 |
| Sep 26 | −$5.28 | +$22.92 | −$250.47 | −$1,261 |
| Sep 27 | −$3.53 | +$24.68 | −$249.59 | −$1,261 |
| Sep 28 | −$51.49 | −$23.31 | −$462.45 | −$1,359 |
| Sep 29 | −$48.73 | −$20.54 | −$459.68 | −$1,359 |
| Sep 30 | −$48.73 | −$20.54 | −$459.68 | −$1,359 |
| Oct 1 | +$8.79 | +$85.99 | −$434.63 | −$1,423 |
| Oct 2 | −$874.03 | −$276.89 | −$502.10 | −$1,903 |
| Oct 3 | −$871.81 | −$276.89 | −$502.10 | −$2,202 |
| Oct 4 | −$804.28 | −$217.19 | −$1,526 | −$3,517 |
| Oct 5 | −$783.69 | −$199.13 | −$1,526 | −$3,517 |
| Oct 6 | −$474.51 | +$108.58 | −$1,216 | −$3,189 |
| Oct 7 | −$481.41 | +$108.58 | −$1,216 | −$3,189 |
| Oct 8 | −$361.65 | +$161.21 | −$1,190 | −$2,998 |
| Oct 9 | −$359.02 | +$163.04 | −$1,190 | −$2,996 |
| Oct 10 | −$358.27 | +$163.78 | −$1,190 | −$2,996 |
| Oct 11 | −$453.19 | +$68.33 | −$1,286 | −$3,074 |
| Oct 12 | −$452.86 | +$68.66 | −$1,285 | −$3,074 |
| Oct 13 | −$364.12 | +$151.05 | −$1,219 | −$3,066 |
| Oct 14 | −$338.47 | +$172.99 | −$1,202 | −$3,063 |
| Oct 15 | −$338.47 | +$172.99 | −$1,202 | −$3,063 |
| Oct 16 | −$341.76 | +$169.71 | −$1,202 | −$3,066 |
| Oct 17 | −$341.76 | +$169.71 | −$1,202 | −$3,066 |
| Oct 18 | −$341.76 | +$169.71 | −$1,202 | −$3,066 |
| Oct 19 | −$341.76 | +$169.71 | −$1,202 | −$3,066 |
| Oct 20 | −$230.32 | +$259.40 | −$1,128 | −$2,957 |
| Oct 21 | −$230.32 | +$259.40 | −$1,128 | −$2,956 |
| Oct 22 | −$230.32 | +$259.40 | −$1,128 | −$2,956 |
| Oct 23 | −$229.54 | +$260.19 | −$1,128 | −$2,953 |
| Oct 24 | −$228.71 | +$261.02 | −$1,125 | −$2,955 |
| Oct 25 | −$228.15 | +$262.61 | −$1,123 | −$2,954 |
| Oct 26 | −$228.15 | +$262.61 | −$1,123 | −$2,954 |
Every delay side by side
| Delay | Follower PnL | Kept | Filled |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 min | −$228.15 | −16.8% | 11% |
| 1 min | +$262.61 | 19.4% | 10% |
| 5 min (selected) | −$1,123 | −82.8% | 10% |
| 30 min | −$2,954 | −218% | 11% |
Where the returns go
- Leader PnL at your size+$1,357
- Delay cost−$2,344
- Slippage−$21.37
- Fees (buys $90.82 · sells $24.06)−$114.88
- Follower PnL−$1,123
Leader PnL is scaled to your per-trade size. Delay cost is the price move between the leader's fill and yours; slippage is walking the book to fill your size; fees use the 2026 fee schedule. Methodology.
By category
| Category | Trades | Follower PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Politics | 312 | −$1,165 | −27.8% |
| Crypto | 279 | −$195.17 | −7.3% |
| Finance | 96 | +$27.99 | +137% |
| Geopolitics | 70 | +$3.72 | +1.8% |
| Sports | 13 | +$205.29 | +15.8% |
Trades
Each leader buy and the copy we simulated at the selected delay. Open “Details” to see the market fills behind the copy price.
How fills are simulated: a copy can only fill against real taker buys of the same outcome within 10 minutes after the delay, so the headline numbers are conservative. Fill basis adds a second opinion: where no trade proved a fill, order-book or volume evidence may say the size was still fillable (an estimate, never in the headline). Methodology.
Filled whole order · Partial (NN%) part of it · No buyers nobody bought in the window — not counted · Data not in yet too recent to evaluate
| Date | Market | Leader price | Copy price | Fill | Fill basis | Follower PnL | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trades load from the live API when this section is visible. | |||||||
More Politics traders
- 0x55b4…80eaBeat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0x24c8…23e1Beat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0x614d…1546Beat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0xdeb2…9aa8Keeps −12% at a 5-minute delay
- 0xe958…66b7Leader lost money at this size
- 0xf6ea…0a00Keeps −56% at a 5-minute delay
See the full Politics copyability board, read the methodology, or learn how slippage and fees eat into copied returns.
This is a simulation built from historical on-chain fills; it is not a record of real copy trades. Past results don't predict future results. Only the wallet address and its public Polymarket name are shown.