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In backtest, only 9% of 0xe958…66b7's buys could be fully copied at a 5-minute delay

Politics 0xe9582ac5e2d22a771ed84adc12c8df30a8b166b7 Profile on Polymarket

Only 9% of this trader's buys could be fully copied at a 5-minute delay, and another 8% only partly; the −$2,160 comes from the part you could copy. A copier who mirrored 0xe958…66b7's 766 buys across 93 markets with a 5-minute delay and $100 per trade would have ended at −$2,160. The leader lost $3,219 at the same size, so there were no returns to keep: the delay helped by +$1,108, slippage helped by +$126.34 and fees $175.13. In the backtest, this simulated copy would have tied up to $2,397 at once across 126 positions.

Copy delay

Each time the trader buys, the simulation copies this much. Not a total budget.

Key numbers

Follower PnL
−$2,160
Incl. estimates −$4,967
Max drawdown −$2,163
ROI −26.8% on total cost
Returns kept
n/a (The leader lost money at this size, so there were no returns to keep)
Leader, same size −$3,219
leader lost money
Peak capital in use
$2,397
Incl. estimates $25,262
766 copied buys · $8,069 total cost
Fill rate
9%
Most buys couldn't be fully copied
Incl. estimates 39%
67 filled · 59 partial · 640 no buyers
Backtest score
17/100
766 buys · 93 markets

The headline numbers only count what real trades in the 10 minutes after the delay prove. “Including estimates” also counts the unproven part of a buy when order-book or trading-volume evidence says it was fillable, at an estimated price. Treat it as an upper view, not a promise. 448 estimated: 37 high · 192 medium · 219 low · 236 thin How we estimate

Cumulative PnL across all copied positions

X axis
Max drawdown −$2.2k

Final values: 0 min: −$1,703; 1 min: −$1,542; 5 min: −$2,160; 30 min: −$2,162. Max drawdown −$2,163 (5 min, Oct 25). Hover or use the arrow keys to read values.

Chart data by day
Day (UTC)0 min1 min5 min30 min
Sep 20+$5.68+$2.17−$144.64−$172.72
Sep 21−$178.18−$81.54−$143.39−$171.60
Sep 22−$1,764−$1,599−$1,648−$1,869
Sep 23−$1,683−$1,500−$1,604−$1,786
Sep 24−$1,648−$1,452−$1,538−$1,774
Sep 25−$1,630−$1,434−$1,494−$1,795
Sep 26−$1,660−$1,461−$1,842−$1,809
Sep 27−$1,690−$1,493−$2,105−$2,104
Sep 28−$1,687−$1,491−$2,105−$2,104
Sep 29−$1,679−$1,492−$2,068−$2,125
Sep 30−$1,680−$1,492−$2,068−$2,124
Oct 1−$1,669−$1,481−$2,066−$2,124
Oct 2−$1,668−$1,481−$2,066−$2,124
Oct 3−$1,668−$1,481−$2,066−$2,111
Oct 4−$1,668−$1,481−$2,066−$2,111
Oct 5−$1,656−$1,481−$2,066−$2,181
Oct 6−$1,649−$1,475−$2,061−$2,181
Oct 7−$1,624−$1,452−$2,059−$2,221
Oct 8−$1,613−$1,450−$2,059−$2,211
Oct 9−$1,613−$1,450−$2,059−$2,188
Oct 10−$1,540−$1,376−$2,015−$2,188
Oct 11−$1,540−$1,376−$2,015−$2,188
Oct 12−$1,540−$1,376−$2,015−$2,193
Oct 13−$1,540−$1,376−$2,015−$2,193
Oct 14−$1,540−$1,376−$2,015−$2,193
Oct 15−$1,541−$1,376−$2,015−$2,194
Oct 16−$1,506−$1,340−$1,978−$2,157
Oct 17−$1,492−$1,333−$1,978−$2,157
Oct 18−$1,492−$1,333−$1,978−$2,157
Oct 19−$1,492−$1,333−$1,978−$2,157
Oct 20−$1,499−$1,339−$1,958−$2,152
Oct 21−$1,499−$1,339−$1,958−$2,152
Oct 22−$1,499−$1,339−$1,958−$2,152
Oct 23−$1,699−$1,539−$2,158−$2,164
Oct 24−$1,699−$1,539−$2,157−$2,163
Oct 25−$1,703−$1,542−$2,160−$2,162

Every delay side by side

DelayFollower PnLKeptFilled
0 min−$1,703n/a (The leader lost money at this size, so there were no returns to keep)8%
1 min−$1,542n/a (The leader lost money at this size, so there were no returns to keep)8%
5 min (selected)−$2,160n/a (The leader lost money at this size, so there were no returns to keep)9%
30 min−$2,162n/a (The leader lost money at this size, so there were no returns to keep)8%

Where the returns go

  1. Leader PnL at your size−$3,219
  2. Delay helped+$1,108
  3. Slippage helped+$126.34
  4. Fees (buys $123.80 · sells $51.33)−$175.13
  5. Follower PnL−$2,160

Leader PnL is scaled to your per-trade size. Delay cost is the price move between the leader's fill and yours; slippage is walking the book to fill your size; fees use the 2026 fee schedule. Methodology.

By category

CategoryTradesFollower PnLROI
Politics442−$1,591−24.2%
Geopolitics318−$198.39−20.1%
Sports6−$369.91−74.0%

Data version 12078 · computed Oct 26, 2026 · 271 unsettled positions marked at the last traded price.

Trades

Each leader buy and the copy we simulated at the selected delay. Open “Details” to see the market fills behind the copy price.

How fills are simulated: a copy can only fill against real taker buys of the same outcome within 10 minutes after the delay, so the headline numbers are conservative. Fill basis adds a second opinion: where no trade proved a fill, order-book or volume evidence may say the size was still fillable (an estimate, never in the headline). Methodology.

Filled whole order · Partial (NN%) part of it · No buyers nobody bought in the window — not counted · Data not in yet too recent to evaluate

Show
Order
Date Market Leader price Copy price Fill Fill basis Follower PnL Details
Trades load from the live API when this section is visible.
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More Politics traders

See the full Politics copyability board, read the methodology, or learn how slippage and fees eat into copied returns.

This is a simulation built from historical on-chain fills; it is not a record of real copy trades. Past results don't predict future results. Only the wallet address and its public Polymarket name are shown.