FollowCheck 中文

In backtest, only 16% of 0xd487…053e's buys could be fully copied at a 5-minute delay

Sports 0xd487f513cfead22d76b6db4567c756b3cf25053e Profile on Polymarket

Only 16% of this trader's buys could be fully copied at a 5-minute delay, and another 2% only partly; the −$3,368 comes from the part you could copy. A copier who mirrored 0xd487…053e's 4,573 buys across 963 markets with a 5-minute delay and $100 per trade would have ended at −$3,368, while the leader made +$714.26 at the same size. At a 5-minute delay a follower can't keep up: delay cost $3,409, slippage $264.74 and fees $409.01 outweigh whatever edge the leader had. In the backtest, this simulated copy would have tied up to $6,011 at once across 830 positions.

Copy delay

Each time the trader buys, the simulation copies this much. Not a total budget.

Key numbers

Follower PnL
−$3,368
Incl. estimates −$4,565
Max drawdown −$3,715
ROI −4.3% on total cost
Returns kept
−472%
Leader, same size +$714.26
follower ÷ leader
Peak capital in use
$6,011
Incl. estimates $10,215
4,573 copied buys · $78,728 total cost
Fill rate
16%
Most buys couldn't be fully copied
Incl. estimates 56%
747 filled · 83 partial · 3,743 no buyers
Backtest score
19/100
4,573 buys · 963 markets

The headline numbers only count what real trades in the 10 minutes after the delay prove. “Including estimates” also counts the unproven part of a buy when order-book or trading-volume evidence says it was fillable, at an estimated price. Treat it as an upper view, not a promise. 2,236 estimated: 54 high · 1,784 medium · 398 low · 1,576 thin How we estimate

Cumulative PnL across all copied positions

X axis
Max drawdown −$3.7k

Final values: 0 min: −$1,925; 1 min: −$2,272; 5 min: −$3,368; 30 min: −$62.79. Max drawdown −$3,715 (5 min, Oct 23). Hover or use the arrow keys to read values.

Chart data by day
Day (UTC)0 min1 min5 min30 min
Sep 21−$34.60−$34.71−$0.97$0.00
Sep 22+$9.44+$4.54−$880.24$0.00
Sep 23−$1,421−$1,451−$1,202+$33.19
Sep 24−$1,378−$1,438−$1,192+$33.19
Sep 25−$1,320−$1,459−$1,230−$69.30
Sep 26−$1,356−$1,477−$1,217−$69.30
Sep 27−$1,245−$1,305−$1,038−$69.08
Sep 28−$1,053−$1,173−$938.68−$69.08
Sep 29−$1,702−$1,785−$1,621−$69.08
Sep 30−$1,827−$1,917−$1,966−$28.12
Oct 1−$2,185−$2,322−$2,308−$28.12
Oct 2−$2,049−$2,223−$2,253−$28.12
Oct 3−$1,872−$2,089−$2,154−$26.73
Oct 4−$1,448−$1,611−$1,606−$26.73
Oct 5−$1,675−$1,827−$1,561−$22.92
Oct 6−$1,327−$1,589−$1,503−$22.70
Oct 7−$908.99−$1,059−$1,143+$517.76
Oct 8−$858.45−$1,020−$1,093+$691.16
Oct 9−$734.35−$946.48−$1,566+$742.96
Oct 10−$560.67−$803.48−$1,912+$742.96
Oct 11−$337.79−$604.58−$1,542+$742.96
Oct 12−$481.03−$560.60−$1,802+$615.74
Oct 13−$637.82−$710.32−$2,088+$615.74
Oct 14−$213.43−$228.54−$1,484+$635.84
Oct 15−$516.64−$550.94−$1,623+$635.84
Oct 16−$1,004−$1,308−$2,367−$249.40
Oct 17−$1,903−$2,216−$3,278−$249.40
Oct 18−$1,887−$2,217−$3,247−$249.40
Oct 19−$1,846−$2,189−$3,200−$249.40
Oct 20−$2,275−$2,614−$3,617−$249.40
Oct 21−$2,275−$2,614−$3,617−$249.40
Oct 22−$2,413−$2,680−$3,659−$249.40
Oct 23−$2,305−$2,576−$3,673−$249.40
Oct 24−$2,130−$2,420−$3,535−$249.40
Oct 25−$1,925−$2,272−$3,368−$62.79

Every delay side by side

DelayFollower PnLKeptFilled
0 min−$1,925−270%34%
1 min−$2,272−318%28%
5 min (selected)−$3,368−472%16%
30 min−$62.79−8.8%1%

Where the returns go

  1. Leader PnL at your size+$714.26
  2. Delay cost−$3,409
  3. Slippage−$264.74
  4. Fees (buys $368.86 · sells $40.15)−$409.01
  5. Follower PnL−$3,368

Leader PnL is scaled to your per-trade size. Delay cost is the price move between the leader's fill and yours; slippage is walking the book to fill your size; fees use the 2026 fee schedule. Methodology.

By category

CategoryTradesFollower PnLROI
Sports4,573−$3,368−4.3%

Data version 12084 · computed Oct 26, 2026 · 1 unsettled positions marked at the last traded price.

Trades

Each leader buy and the copy we simulated at the selected delay. Open “Details” to see the market fills behind the copy price.

How fills are simulated: a copy can only fill against real taker buys of the same outcome within 10 minutes after the delay, so the headline numbers are conservative. Fill basis adds a second opinion: where no trade proved a fill, order-book or volume evidence may say the size was still fillable (an estimate, never in the headline). Methodology.

Filled whole order · Partial (NN%) part of it · No buyers nobody bought in the window — not counted · Data not in yet too recent to evaluate

Show
Order
Date Market Leader price Copy price Fill Fill basis Follower PnL Details
Trades load from the live API when this section is visible.
Page 1

More Sports traders

See the full Sports copyability board, read the methodology, or learn how slippage and fees eat into copied returns.

This is a simulation built from historical on-chain fills; it is not a record of real copy trades. Past results don't predict future results. Only the wallet address and its public Polymarket name are shown.