In backtest, only 19% of 0xdf17…97d1's buys could be fully copied at a 5-minute delay
Provisional26 buys are too recent to evaluate at this delay: the market data after them isn't indexed yet, so they're left out of these numbers. Computed Oct 26, 2026, 02:03 UTC.
Only 19% of this trader's buys could be fully copied at a 5-minute delay, and another 14% only partly; the +$17,421 comes from the part you could copy. A copier who mirrored 0xdf17…97d1's 4,211 buys across 300 markets with a 5-minute delay and $100 per trade would have kept 77% of the leader's returns: +$17,421 against +$22,711 for the leader at the same size. In this backtest, most of the edge survived the delay, and 19% of buys could be filled within 10 minutes. The remaining gap is delay cost $3,843, slippage $107.33 and fees $1,340. In the backtest, this simulated copy would have tied up to $45,391 at once across 1,381 positions.
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Key numbers
The headline numbers only count what real trades in the 10 minutes after the delay prove. “Including estimates” also counts the unproven part of a buy when order-book or trading-volume evidence says it was fillable, at an estimated price. Treat it as an upper view, not a promise. 2,298 estimated: 549 high · 1,307 medium · 442 low · 988 thin How we estimate
Cumulative PnL across all copied positions
Final values: 0 min: +$15,398; 1 min: +$16,455; 5 min: +$17,421; 30 min: +$11,517. Max drawdown −$1,385 (5 min, Sep 27). Hover or use the arrow keys to read values.
Chart data by day
| Day (UTC) | 0 min | 1 min | 5 min | 30 min |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 21 | +$481.03 | +$462.37 | +$318.87 | +$300.52 |
| Sep 22 | +$1,839 | +$2,090 | +$1,752 | +$434.45 |
| Sep 23 | +$4,304 | +$5,203 | +$5,867 | +$1,924 |
| Sep 24 | +$5,585 | +$6,515 | +$7,057 | +$2,325 |
| Sep 25 | +$8,323 | +$9,628 | +$10,428 | +$3,529 |
| Sep 26 | +$8,063 | +$8,846 | +$9,798 | +$3,132 |
| Sep 27 | +$7,994 | +$8,469 | +$9,043 | +$2,916 |
| Sep 28 | +$8,442 | +$9,310 | +$9,861 | +$3,146 |
| Sep 29 | +$15,089 | +$15,952 | +$16,509 | +$10,122 |
| Sep 30 | +$14,224 | +$14,772 | +$15,496 | +$10,547 |
| Oct 1 | +$14,437 | +$15,155 | +$15,679 | +$10,758 |
| Oct 2 | +$14,620 | +$15,514 | +$16,015 | +$10,657 |
| Oct 3 | +$14,835 | +$15,502 | +$16,006 | +$10,682 |
| Oct 4 | +$14,901 | +$15,543 | +$15,912 | +$10,738 |
| Oct 5 | +$15,661 | +$16,541 | +$17,277 | +$10,967 |
| Oct 6 | +$15,679 | +$16,557 | +$17,292 | +$11,023 |
| Oct 7 | +$15,649 | +$16,563 | +$17,345 | +$11,019 |
| Oct 8 | +$15,683 | +$16,587 | +$17,318 | +$11,026 |
| Oct 9 | +$15,803 | +$16,679 | +$17,383 | +$11,047 |
| Oct 10 | +$15,925 | +$16,824 | +$17,434 | +$11,070 |
| Oct 11 | +$15,877 | +$16,753 | +$17,473 | +$11,050 |
| Oct 12 | +$16,419 | +$17,323 | +$18,065 | +$11,589 |
| Oct 13 | +$16,329 | +$17,054 | +$17,914 | +$11,481 |
| Oct 14 | +$15,994 | +$16,972 | +$17,813 | +$11,481 |
| Oct 15 | +$15,828 | +$16,790 | +$17,811 | +$11,420 |
| Oct 16 | +$15,384 | +$16,390 | +$17,301 | +$10,995 |
| Oct 17 | +$15,220 | +$16,312 | +$17,204 | +$10,943 |
| Oct 18 | +$15,229 | +$16,254 | +$17,224 | +$10,942 |
| Oct 19 | +$15,248 | +$16,279 | +$17,236 | +$10,949 |
| Oct 20 | +$15,242 | +$16,303 | +$17,237 | +$10,954 |
| Oct 21 | +$15,302 | +$16,319 | +$17,267 | +$10,953 |
| Oct 22 | +$15,972 | +$16,726 | +$17,733 | +$11,363 |
| Oct 23 | +$15,532 | +$16,480 | +$17,436 | +$11,502 |
| Oct 24 | +$15,495 | +$16,476 | +$17,424 | +$11,499 |
| Oct 25 | +$15,400 | +$16,457 | +$17,421 | +$11,518 |
| Oct 26 | +$15,398 | +$16,455 | +$17,421 | +$11,517 |
Every delay side by side
| Delay | Follower PnL | Kept | Filled |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 min | +$15,398 | 67.8% | 22% |
| 1 min | +$16,455 | 72.5% | 20% |
| 5 min (selected) | +$17,421 | 76.7% | 19% |
| 30 min | +$11,517 | 50.7% | 14% |
Where the returns go
- Leader PnL at your size+$22,711
- Delay cost−$3,843
- Slippage−$107.33
- Fees (buys $1,143 · sells $197.09)−$1,340
- Follower PnL+$17,421
Leader PnL is scaled to your per-trade size. Delay cost is the price move between the leader's fill and yours; slippage is walking the book to fill your size; fees use the 2026 fee schedule. Methodology.
By category
| Category | Trades | Follower PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Politics | 3,409 | +$17,491 | +23.2% |
| Geopolitics | 307 | +$870.01 | +16.5% |
| Tech | 248 | −$1,031 | −11.5% |
| Sports | 119 | +$57.19 | +3.3% |
| Economy | 50 | +$27.76 | +2.5% |
| Culture | 39 | +$5.24 | +6.5% |
| Finance | 10 | −$1.95 | −1.0% |
| Crypto | 3 | +$1.85 | +21.5% |
Trades
Each leader buy and the copy we simulated at the selected delay. Open “Details” to see the market fills behind the copy price.
How fills are simulated: a copy can only fill against real taker buys of the same outcome within 10 minutes after the delay, so the headline numbers are conservative. Fill basis adds a second opinion: where no trade proved a fill, order-book or volume evidence may say the size was still fillable (an estimate, never in the headline). Methodology.
Filled whole order · Partial (NN%) part of it · No buyers nobody bought in the window — not counted · Data not in yet too recent to evaluate
| Date | Market | Leader price | Copy price | Fill | Fill basis | Follower PnL | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trades load from the live API when this section is visible. | |||||||
More Politics traders
- 0x55b4…80eaBeat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0x24c8…23e1Beat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0x614d…1546Beat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0x9c26…74bcKeeps 75% at a 5-minute delay
- 0x6575…b198Keeps 68% at a 5-minute delay
- 0xc757…ccfcKeeps 61% at a 5-minute delay
See the full Politics copyability board, read the methodology, or learn how slippage and fees eat into copied returns.
This is a simulation built from historical on-chain fills; it is not a record of real copy trades. Past results don't predict future results. Only the wallet address and its public Polymarket name are shown.