In backtest, only 29% of 0x6575…b198's buys could be fully copied at a 5-minute delay
Provisional
Only 29% of this trader's buys could be fully copied at a 5-minute delay, and another 12% only partly; the +$34,322 comes from the part you could copy. A copier who mirrored 0x6575…b198's 1,102 buys across 64 markets with a 5-minute delay and $100 per trade would have kept 68% of the leader's returns: +$34,322 against +$50,180 for the leader at the same size. In this backtest, most of the edge survived the delay, and 29% of buys could be filled within 10 minutes. The remaining gap is delay cost $14,805, slippage $256.13 and fees $796.70. In the backtest, this simulated copy would have tied up to $29,637 at once across 453 positions.
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Key numbers
The headline numbers only count what real trades in the 10 minutes after the delay prove. “Including estimates” also counts the unproven part of a buy when order-book or trading-volume evidence says it was fillable, at an estimated price. Treat it as an upper view, not a promise. 602 estimated: 398 high · 140 medium · 64 low · 170 thin How we estimate
Cumulative PnL across all copied positions
Final values: 0 min: +$38,431; 1 min: +$36,750; 5 min: +$34,322; 30 min: +$44,559. Max drawdown −$3,637 (5 min, Oct 2). Hover or use the arrow keys to read values.
Chart data by day
| Day (UTC) | 0 min | 1 min | 5 min | 30 min |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 25 | −$2,729 | −$2,656 | −$3,134 | −$161.08 |
| Sep 26 | −$3,178 | −$3,093 | −$3,527 | −$164.27 |
| Sep 27 | −$3,288 | −$3,204 | −$3,631 | −$268.85 |
| Sep 28 | −$3,288 | −$3,204 | −$3,631 | −$268.85 |
| Sep 29 | −$3,287 | −$3,205 | −$3,634 | −$263.06 |
| Sep 30 | −$3,287 | −$3,205 | −$3,634 | −$263.06 |
| Oct 1 | −$3,287 | −$3,205 | −$3,634 | −$263.06 |
| Oct 2 | −$849.92 | −$1,323 | −$1,680 | −$132.53 |
| Oct 3 | +$2,184 | +$992.64 | +$985.68 | +$2,315 |
| Oct 4 | +$4,444 | +$2,718 | +$2,349 | +$2,768 |
| Oct 5 | +$11,293 | +$9,495 | +$9,174 | +$9,807 |
| Oct 6 | +$11,301 | +$9,503 | +$9,174 | +$9,832 |
| Oct 7 | +$11,282 | +$9,497 | +$9,169 | +$9,816 |
| Oct 8 | +$11,282 | +$9,497 | +$9,169 | +$9,816 |
| Oct 9 | +$11,322 | +$9,535 | +$9,207 | +$9,864 |
| Oct 10 | +$11,322 | +$9,535 | +$9,207 | +$9,864 |
| Oct 11 | +$11,322 | +$9,535 | +$9,207 | +$9,864 |
| Oct 12 | +$11,322 | +$9,535 | +$9,207 | +$9,864 |
| Oct 13 | +$10,275 | +$8,487 | +$9,206 | +$9,864 |
| Oct 14 | +$10,275 | +$8,487 | +$9,206 | +$9,864 |
| Oct 15 | +$10,274 | +$8,486 | +$9,206 | +$9,796 |
| Oct 16 | +$10,276 | +$8,798 | +$9,273 | +$9,679 |
| Oct 17 | +$10,273 | +$8,798 | +$9,273 | +$9,679 |
| Oct 18 | +$10,184 | +$8,700 | +$9,077 | +$9,674 |
| Oct 19 | +$10,175 | +$8,691 | +$9,068 | +$9,673 |
| Oct 20 | +$10,175 | +$8,691 | +$9,068 | +$9,673 |
| Oct 21 | +$9,450 | +$8,040 | +$8,395 | +$9,178 |
| Oct 22 | +$9,367 | +$8,013 | +$8,406 | +$9,181 |
| Oct 23 | +$7,622 | +$6,222 | +$7,245 | +$8,448 |
| Oct 24 | +$36,017 | +$35,402 | +$30,737 | +$38,038 |
| Oct 25 | +$38,776 | +$37,052 | +$34,240 | +$44,560 |
| Oct 26 | +$38,431 | +$36,750 | +$34,322 | +$44,559 |
Every delay side by side
| Delay | Follower PnL | Kept | Filled |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 min | +$38,431 | 76.6% | 34% |
| 1 min | +$36,750 | 73.2% | 32% |
| 5 min (selected) | +$34,322 | 68.4% | 29% |
| 30 min | +$44,559 | 88.8% | 23% |
Where the returns go
- Leader PnL at your size+$50,180
- Delay cost−$14,805
- Slippage−$256.13
- Fees (buys $788.44 · sells $8.26)−$796.70
- Follower PnL+$34,322
Leader PnL is scaled to your per-trade size. Delay cost is the price move between the leader's fill and yours; slippage is walking the book to fill your size; fees use the 2026 fee schedule. Methodology.
By category
| Category | Trades | Follower PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Politics | 844 | +$34,543 | +101% |
| Finance | 160 | −$19.94 | −11.8% |
| Geopolitics | 78 | −$296.24 | −45.6% |
| Sports | 14 | −$50.21 | −16.7% |
| Tech | 5 | +$166.23 | +102% |
| Crypto | 1 | −$20.43 | −106% |
Trades
Each leader buy and the copy we simulated at the selected delay. Open “Details” to see the market fills behind the copy price.
How fills are simulated: a copy can only fill against real taker buys of the same outcome within 10 minutes after the delay, so the headline numbers are conservative. Fill basis adds a second opinion: where no trade proved a fill, order-book or volume evidence may say the size was still fillable (an estimate, never in the headline). Methodology.
Filled whole order · Partial (NN%) part of it · No buyers nobody bought in the window — not counted · Data not in yet too recent to evaluate
| Date | Market | Leader price | Copy price | Fill | Fill basis | Follower PnL | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trades load from the live API when this section is visible. | |||||||
More Politics traders
- 0x55b4…80eaBeat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0x24c8…23e1Beat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0x614d…1546Beat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0xc757…ccfcKeeps 61% at a 5-minute delay
- 0x33e2…3a1bKeeps 53% at a 5-minute delay
- 0xbf96…9942Keeps 62% at a 5-minute delay
See the full Politics copyability board, read the methodology, or learn how slippage and fees eat into copied returns.
This is a simulation built from historical on-chain fills; it is not a record of real copy trades. Past results don't predict future results. Only the wallet address and its public Polymarket name are shown.