In backtest, only 20% of 0xe472…e7eb's buys could be fully copied at a 5-minute delay
Provisional
Only 20% of this trader's buys could be fully copied at a 5-minute delay, and another 11% only partly; the −$5,274 comes from the part you could copy. A copier who mirrored 0xe472…e7eb's 626 buys across 64 markets with a 5-minute delay and $100 per trade would have ended at −$5,274. The leader lost $5,204 at the same size, so there were no returns to keep: the delay helped by +$23.21, slippage helped by +$2.39 and fees $95.99. In the backtest, this simulated copy would have tied up to $10,814 at once across 195 positions.
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Key numbers
The headline numbers only count what real trades in the 10 minutes after the delay prove. “Including estimates” also counts the unproven part of a buy when order-book or trading-volume evidence says it was fillable, at an estimated price. Treat it as an upper view, not a promise. 350 estimated: 90 high · 204 medium · 56 low · 132 thin How we estimate
Cumulative PnL across all copied positions
Final values: 0 min: −$4,662; 1 min: −$4,741; 5 min: −$5,274; 30 min: −$6,032. Max drawdown −$5,288 (5 min, Oct 25). Hover or use the arrow keys to read values.
Chart data by day
| Day (UTC) | 0 min | 1 min | 5 min | 30 min |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 27 | +$6.26 | +$6.26 | +$14.11 | +$3.65 |
| Sep 28 | −$16.12 | −$23.01 | −$17.16 | +$4.27 |
| Sep 29 | −$74.97 | −$35.62 | −$29.19 | +$4.46 |
| Sep 30 | −$74.87 | −$35.53 | −$29.19 | +$4.46 |
| Oct 1 | −$78.60 | −$35.83 | −$29.61 | +$4.46 |
| Oct 2 | −$77.50 | −$34.73 | −$30.95 | +$6.09 |
| Oct 3 | −$77.50 | −$34.73 | −$30.95 | +$6.09 |
| Oct 4 | −$74.41 | −$32.56 | −$29.63 | +$9.41 |
| Oct 5 | −$755.02 | −$867.89 | −$1,174 | −$1,235 |
| Oct 6 | −$760.19 | −$868.65 | −$1,175 | −$1,235 |
| Oct 7 | −$924.73 | −$1,034 | −$1,455 | −$1,499 |
| Oct 8 | −$929.85 | −$1,039 | −$1,458 | −$1,499 |
| Oct 9 | −$931.07 | −$1,039 | −$1,458 | −$1,499 |
| Oct 10 | −$931.07 | −$1,039 | −$1,458 | −$1,499 |
| Oct 11 | −$1,113 | −$1,220 | −$1,654 | −$1,782 |
| Oct 12 | −$1,138 | −$1,178 | −$1,705 | −$1,994 |
| Oct 13 | −$1,130 | −$1,267 | −$1,788 | −$1,860 |
| Oct 14 | −$1,278 | −$1,498 | −$1,999 | −$2,125 |
| Oct 15 | −$1,046 | −$1,289 | −$1,790 | −$2,007 |
| Oct 16 | −$1,056 | −$1,299 | −$1,800 | −$2,007 |
| Oct 17 | −$1,054 | −$1,297 | −$1,798 | −$2,007 |
| Oct 18 | −$1,103 | −$1,311 | −$1,799 | −$2,101 |
| Oct 19 | −$1,085 | −$1,283 | −$1,778 | −$2,087 |
| Oct 20 | −$1,249 | −$1,389 | −$1,883 | −$2,355 |
| Oct 21 | −$1,331 | −$1,470 | −$1,967 | −$2,531 |
| Oct 22 | −$2,310 | −$2,451 | −$2,932 | −$3,559 |
| Oct 23 | −$3,013 | −$3,090 | −$3,710 | −$4,318 |
| Oct 24 | −$3,382 | −$3,459 | −$3,984 | −$4,609 |
| Oct 25 | −$4,662 | −$4,741 | −$5,274 | −$6,032 |
Every delay side by side
| Delay | Follower PnL | Kept | Filled |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 min | −$4,662 | n/a (The leader lost money at this size, so there were no returns to keep) | 24% |
| 1 min | −$4,741 | n/a (The leader lost money at this size, so there were no returns to keep) | 23% |
| 5 min (selected) | −$5,274 | n/a (The leader lost money at this size, so there were no returns to keep) | 20% |
| 30 min | −$6,032 | n/a (The leader lost money at this size, so there were no returns to keep) | 17% |
Where the returns go
- Leader PnL at your size−$5,204
- Delay helped+$23.21
- Slippage helped+$2.39
- Fees (buys $87.89 · sells $8.10)−$95.99
- Follower PnL−$5,274
Leader PnL is scaled to your per-trade size. Delay cost is the price move between the leader's fill and yours; slippage is walking the book to fill your size; fees use the 2026 fee schedule. Methodology.
By category
| Category | Trades | Follower PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Politics | 409 | −$5,260 | −41.9% |
| Finance | 128 | +$0.68 | +0.1% |
| Geopolitics | 47 | −$19.35 | −13.9% |
| Tech | 34 | +$17.97 | +6.5% |
| Economy | 7 | −$13.12 | −13.1% |
| Sports | 1 | $0.00 | 0.0% |
Trades
Each leader buy and the copy we simulated at the selected delay. Open “Details” to see the market fills behind the copy price.
How fills are simulated: a copy can only fill against real taker buys of the same outcome within 10 minutes after the delay, so the headline numbers are conservative. Fill basis adds a second opinion: where no trade proved a fill, order-book or volume evidence may say the size was still fillable (an estimate, never in the headline). Methodology.
Filled whole order · Partial (NN%) part of it · No buyers nobody bought in the window — not counted · Data not in yet too recent to evaluate
| Date | Market | Leader price | Copy price | Fill | Fill basis | Follower PnL | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trades load from the live API when this section is visible. | |||||||
More Politics traders
- 0x55b4…80eaBeat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0x24c8…23e1Beat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0x614d…1546Beat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0xeb49…693eLeader lost money at this size
- 0xfb51…742dLeader lost money at this size
- 0xfe41…9f23Leader lost money at this size
See the full Politics copyability board, read the methodology, or learn how slippage and fees eat into copied returns.
This is a simulation built from historical on-chain fills; it is not a record of real copy trades. Past results don't predict future results. Only the wallet address and its public Polymarket name are shown.