In backtest, only 11% of 0xfbfd…0029's buys could be fully copied at a 5-minute delay
Provisional
Only 11% of this trader's buys could be fully copied at a 5-minute delay, and another 6% only partly; the −$3,157 comes from the part you could copy. A copier who mirrored 0xfbfd…0029's 977 buys across 65 markets with a 5-minute delay and $100 per trade would have ended at −$3,157. The leader lost $3,044 at the same size, so there were no returns to keep: the delay helped by +$160.91, slippage helped by +$0.20 and fees $274.41. In the backtest, this simulated copy would have tied up to $10,319 at once across 172 positions.
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Key numbers
The headline numbers only count what real trades in the 10 minutes after the delay prove. “Including estimates” also counts the unproven part of a buy when order-book or trading-volume evidence says it was fillable, at an estimated price. Treat it as an upper view, not a promise. 719 estimated: 437 high · 226 medium · 56 low · 141 thin How we estimate
Cumulative PnL across all copied positions
Final values: 0 min: −$3,507; 1 min: −$3,188; 5 min: −$3,157; 30 min: −$2,541. Max drawdown −$3,614 (5 min, Oct 25). Hover or use the arrow keys to read values.
Chart data by day
| Day (UTC) | 0 min | 1 min | 5 min | 30 min |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 21 | −$37.67 | +$0.01 | −$2.50 | −$2.94 |
| Sep 22 | −$74.65 | −$5.34 | −$13.11 | −$7.35 |
| Sep 23 | −$74.65 | −$5.34 | −$13.11 | −$109.13 |
| Sep 24 | +$8.24 | +$93.05 | +$5.36 | −$104.49 |
| Sep 25 | +$34.73 | +$122.69 | +$26.12 | −$104.49 |
| Sep 26 | +$33.97 | +$125.64 | +$26.12 | −$104.49 |
| Sep 27 | +$33.97 | +$125.64 | +$26.12 | −$104.49 |
| Sep 28 | +$44.87 | +$130.65 | +$28.62 | −$104.49 |
| Sep 29 | +$45.22 | +$130.65 | +$28.62 | −$104.49 |
| Sep 30 | +$45.41 | +$130.65 | +$28.62 | −$104.49 |
| Oct 1 | +$51.54 | +$136.78 | +$28.62 | −$104.49 |
| Oct 2 | −$202.94 | −$74.56 | −$142.02 | −$73.45 |
| Oct 3 | −$202.94 | −$74.56 | −$141.61 | −$73.45 |
| Oct 4 | −$182.23 | −$53.97 | −$141.61 | −$64.52 |
| Oct 5 | −$182.23 | −$53.97 | −$141.61 | −$64.52 |
| Oct 6 | −$183.13 | −$53.97 | −$142.05 | −$69.00 |
| Oct 7 | −$184.42 | −$54.86 | −$142.70 | −$68.89 |
| Oct 8 | −$317.71 | −$159.43 | −$232.73 | −$201.33 |
| Oct 9 | −$319.69 | −$161.43 | −$233.89 | −$201.33 |
| Oct 10 | −$319.69 | −$161.43 | −$233.89 | −$201.33 |
| Oct 11 | −$319.47 | −$160.36 | −$238.30 | −$201.33 |
| Oct 12 | −$596.50 | −$332.46 | −$274.83 | −$490.36 |
| Oct 13 | −$735.67 | −$476.95 | −$363.13 | −$557.77 |
| Oct 14 | −$2,876 | −$2,581 | −$2,329 | −$2,174 |
| Oct 15 | −$2,791 | −$2,476 | −$2,198 | −$2,037 |
| Oct 16 | −$2,791 | −$2,476 | −$2,198 | −$2,037 |
| Oct 17 | −$2,791 | −$2,476 | −$2,198 | −$2,037 |
| Oct 18 | −$2,806 | −$2,491 | −$2,213 | −$2,040 |
| Oct 19 | −$2,869 | −$2,560 | −$2,694 | −$2,108 |
| Oct 20 | −$3,015 | −$2,708 | −$2,875 | −$2,311 |
| Oct 21 | −$3,015 | −$2,708 | −$2,875 | −$2,311 |
| Oct 22 | −$3,019 | −$2,708 | −$2,875 | −$2,319 |
| Oct 23 | −$3,232 | −$2,918 | −$3,000 | −$2,340 |
| Oct 24 | −$3,232 | −$2,918 | −$3,000 | −$2,340 |
| Oct 25 | −$3,507 | −$3,188 | −$3,157 | −$2,541 |
Every delay side by side
| Delay | Follower PnL | Kept | Filled |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 min | −$3,507 | n/a (The leader lost money at this size, so there were no returns to keep) | 12% |
| 1 min | −$3,188 | n/a (The leader lost money at this size, so there were no returns to keep) | 12% |
| 5 min (selected) | −$3,157 | n/a (The leader lost money at this size, so there were no returns to keep) | 11% |
| 30 min | −$2,541 | n/a (The leader lost money at this size, so there were no returns to keep) | 11% |
Where the returns go
- Leader PnL at your size−$3,044
- Delay helped+$160.91
- Slippage helped+$0.20
- Fees (buys $252.27 · sells $22.14)−$274.41
- Follower PnL−$3,157
Leader PnL is scaled to your per-trade size. Delay cost is the price move between the leader's fill and yours; slippage is walking the book to fill your size; fees use the 2026 fee schedule. Methodology.
By category
| Category | Trades | Follower PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Politics | 879 | −$3,227 | −27.7% |
| Economy | 48 | +$64.18 | +17.1% |
| Finance | 27 | +$2.37 | +64.6% |
| Geopolitics | 9 | +$3.11 | +15.5% |
| Crypto | 6 | −$0.01 | −0.6% |
| Culture | 5 | $0.00 | 0.0% |
| Tech | 2 | $0.00 | 0.0% |
| Weather | 1 | $0.00 | 0.0% |
Trades
Each leader buy and the copy we simulated at the selected delay. Open “Details” to see the market fills behind the copy price.
How fills are simulated: a copy can only fill against real taker buys of the same outcome within 10 minutes after the delay, so the headline numbers are conservative. Fill basis adds a second opinion: where no trade proved a fill, order-book or volume evidence may say the size was still fillable (an estimate, never in the headline). Methodology.
Filled whole order · Partial (NN%) part of it · No buyers nobody bought in the window — not counted · Data not in yet too recent to evaluate
| Date | Market | Leader price | Copy price | Fill | Fill basis | Follower PnL | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trades load from the live API when this section is visible. | |||||||
More Politics traders
- 0x55b4…80eaBeat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0x24c8…23e1Beat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0x614d…1546Beat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0x0130…fb49Leader lost money at this size
- 0x0bef…3b06Leader lost money at this size
- 0x1489…1307Keeps −9% at a 5-minute delay
See the full Politics copyability board, read the methodology, or learn how slippage and fees eat into copied returns.
This is a simulation built from historical on-chain fills; it is not a record of real copy trades. Past results don't predict future results. Only the wallet address and its public Polymarket name are shown.