In backtest, only 18% of 0x0845…6b6f's buys could be fully copied at a 5-minute delay
ProvisionalIncludes trades from the last ~40 minutes, so these results may still change. Computed Oct 26, 2026, 02:08 UTC.
Only 18% of this trader's buys could be fully copied at a 5-minute delay, and another 15% only partly; the +$1,569 comes from the part you could copy. A copier who mirrored 0x0845…6b6f's 1,311 buys across 260 markets with a 5-minute delay and $100 per trade would have kept only 46% of the leader's returns: +$1,569 against +$3,439 for the leader at the same size. Most of the edge is eaten before a follower can act: delay cost $1,313, slippage $13.36 and fees $543.55. In the backtest, this simulated copy would have tied up to $15,922 at once across 433 positions.
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Key numbers
The headline numbers only count what real trades in the 10 minutes after the delay prove. “Including estimates” also counts the unproven part of a buy when order-book or trading-volume evidence says it was fillable, at an estimated price. Treat it as an upper view, not a promise. 732 estimated: 233 high · 387 medium · 112 low · 310 thin How we estimate
Cumulative PnL across all copied positions
Final values: 0 min: +$3,374; 1 min: +$1,078; 5 min: +$1,569; 30 min: +$1,469. Max drawdown −$2,018 (5 min, Oct 25). Hover or use the arrow keys to read values.
Chart data by day
| Day (UTC) | 0 min | 1 min | 5 min | 30 min |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 21 | +$84.59 | +$1.30 | +$50.03 | +$50.73 |
| Sep 22 | +$1,127 | +$771.85 | +$1,170 | +$663.44 |
| Sep 23 | +$1,236 | +$844.45 | +$1,261 | +$782.46 |
| Sep 24 | +$953.60 | +$482.40 | +$1,140 | +$827.88 |
| Sep 25 | +$979.08 | +$495.87 | +$1,147 | +$838.77 |
| Sep 26 | +$857.07 | +$420.78 | +$1,084 | +$858.04 |
| Sep 27 | +$782.15 | +$389.18 | +$1,089 | +$689.19 |
| Sep 28 | +$1,160 | +$642.94 | +$1,317 | +$1,281 |
| Sep 29 | +$1,079 | +$566.87 | +$1,303 | +$1,215 |
| Sep 30 | +$1,326 | +$819.56 | +$1,556 | +$1,374 |
| Oct 1 | +$2,062 | +$886.79 | +$1,570 | +$1,370 |
| Oct 2 | +$2,261 | +$1,085 | +$1,707 | +$1,528 |
| Oct 3 | +$2,234 | +$1,057 | +$1,673 | +$1,542 |
| Oct 4 | +$2,268 | +$1,036 | +$1,601 | +$775.02 |
| Oct 5 | +$2,074 | +$821.46 | +$1,650 | +$507.99 |
| Oct 6 | +$2,285 | +$928.03 | +$1,703 | +$617.29 |
| Oct 7 | +$2,818 | +$1,255 | +$1,915 | +$1,293 |
| Oct 8 | +$3,547 | +$1,581 | +$2,100 | +$1,726 |
| Oct 9 | +$4,843 | +$2,837 | +$3,195 | +$2,812 |
| Oct 10 | +$4,918 | +$2,875 | +$3,228 | +$2,812 |
| Oct 11 | +$4,917 | +$2,875 | +$3,228 | +$2,807 |
| Oct 12 | +$4,932 | +$2,882 | +$3,265 | +$2,813 |
| Oct 13 | +$4,932 | +$2,882 | +$3,265 | +$2,813 |
| Oct 14 | +$4,664 | +$2,681 | +$2,969 | +$2,809 |
| Oct 15 | +$4,492 | +$2,560 | +$2,969 | +$2,781 |
| Oct 16 | +$4,486 | +$2,556 | +$2,964 | +$2,772 |
| Oct 17 | +$4,485 | +$2,556 | +$2,964 | +$2,772 |
| Oct 18 | +$4,471 | +$2,540 | +$2,955 | +$2,768 |
| Oct 19 | +$4,739 | +$2,567 | +$2,940 | +$2,674 |
| Oct 20 | +$4,662 | +$2,521 | +$2,975 | +$2,528 |
| Oct 21 | +$4,713 | +$2,533 | +$3,039 | +$2,547 |
| Oct 22 | +$4,121 | +$1,887 | +$2,357 | +$2,102 |
| Oct 23 | +$3,546 | +$1,265 | +$1,807 | +$1,585 |
| Oct 24 | +$3,542 | +$1,263 | +$1,807 | +$1,583 |
| Oct 25 | +$3,374 | +$1,078 | +$1,569 | +$1,469 |
Every delay side by side
| Delay | Follower PnL | Kept | Filled |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 min | +$3,374 | 98.1% | 24% |
| 1 min | +$1,078 | 31.4% | 21% |
| 5 min (selected) | +$1,569 | 45.6% | 18% |
| 30 min | +$1,469 | 42.7% | 16% |
Where the returns go
- Leader PnL at your size+$3,439
- Delay cost−$1,313
- Slippage−$13.36
- Fees (buys $437.05 · sells $106.50)−$543.55
- Follower PnL+$1,569
Leader PnL is scaled to your per-trade size. Delay cost is the price move between the leader's fill and yours; slippage is walking the book to fill your size; fees use the 2026 fee schedule. Methodology.
By category
| Category | Trades | Follower PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Politics | 1,134 | +$1,429 | +5.4% |
| Economy | 47 | +$2.17 | +0.2% |
| Finance | 47 | −$9.37 | −3.1% |
| Geopolitics | 42 | −$11.46 | −79.2% |
| Tech | 30 | +$109.86 | +14.5% |
| Culture | 9 | +$48.20 | +48.2% |
| Other | 2 | $0.00 | 0.0% |
Trades
Each leader buy and the copy we simulated at the selected delay. Open “Details” to see the market fills behind the copy price.
How fills are simulated: a copy can only fill against real taker buys of the same outcome within 10 minutes after the delay, so the headline numbers are conservative. Fill basis adds a second opinion: where no trade proved a fill, order-book or volume evidence may say the size was still fillable (an estimate, never in the headline). Methodology.
Filled whole order · Partial (NN%) part of it · No buyers nobody bought in the window — not counted · Data not in yet too recent to evaluate
| Date | Market | Leader price | Copy price | Fill | Fill basis | Follower PnL | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trades load from the live API when this section is visible. | |||||||
More Politics traders
- 0x55b4…80eaBeat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0x24c8…23e1Beat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0x614d…1546Beat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0x7b02…4991Keeps 49% at a 5-minute delay
- 0x9352…2227Keeps 39% at a 5-minute delay
- 0xab19…4876Keeps 45% at a 5-minute delay
See the full Politics copyability board, read the methodology, or learn how slippage and fees eat into copied returns.
This is a simulation built from historical on-chain fills; it is not a record of real copy trades. Past results don't predict future results. Only the wallet address and its public Polymarket name are shown.