In backtest, only 26% of 0x0869…14f1's buys could be fully copied at a 5-minute delay
Provisional
Only 26% of this trader's buys could be fully copied at a 5-minute delay, and another 19% only partly; the +$1,113 comes from the part you could copy. A copier who mirrored 0x0869…14f1's 175 buys across 7 markets with a 5-minute delay and $100 per trade would have kept 78% of the leader's returns: +$1,113 against +$1,421 for the leader at the same size. In this backtest, most of the edge survived the delay, and 26% of buys could be filled within 10 minutes. The remaining gap is delay cost $261.81, slippage helped by +$3.39 and fees $48.98. In the backtest, this simulated copy would have tied up to $5,008 at once across 79 positions.
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Key numbers
The headline numbers only count what real trades in the 10 minutes after the delay prove. “Including estimates” also counts the unproven part of a buy when order-book or trading-volume evidence says it was fillable, at an estimated price. Treat it as an upper view, not a promise. 106 estimated: 25 high · 70 medium · 11 low · 24 thin How we estimate
Cumulative PnL across all copied positions
Final values: 0 min: +$1,171; 1 min: +$1,073; 5 min: +$1,113; 30 min: +$961.67. Hover or use the arrow keys to read values.
Chart data by day
| Day (UTC) | 0 min | 1 min | 5 min | 30 min |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 21 | +$5.68 | +$5.68 | $0.00 | +$6.34 |
| Sep 22 | +$5.68 | +$5.68 | $0.00 | +$6.34 |
| Sep 23 | +$5.68 | +$5.68 | $0.00 | +$6.34 |
| Sep 24 | +$5.68 | +$5.68 | $0.00 | +$6.34 |
| Sep 25 | −$67.60 | −$95.20 | $0.00 | −$130.18 |
| Sep 26 | +$13.40 | −$64.98 | +$38.54 | −$19.44 |
| Sep 27 | +$13.40 | −$64.98 | +$38.54 | −$19.44 |
| Sep 28 | +$13.40 | −$64.98 | +$38.54 | −$19.44 |
| Sep 29 | +$13.40 | −$64.98 | +$38.54 | −$19.44 |
| Sep 30 | +$13.40 | −$64.98 | +$38.54 | −$19.44 |
| Oct 1 | +$13.40 | −$64.98 | +$38.54 | −$19.44 |
| Oct 2 | +$13.74 | −$64.96 | +$38.57 | −$19.43 |
| Oct 3 | +$13.25 | −$65.45 | +$38.57 | −$19.43 |
| Oct 4 | +$15.72 | −$62.98 | +$41.03 | −$19.43 |
| Oct 5 | +$152.92 | +$65.98 | +$165.94 | +$150.64 |
| Oct 6 | +$157.62 | +$70.68 | +$166.09 | +$151.48 |
| Oct 7 | +$157.62 | +$70.68 | +$166.09 | +$151.48 |
| Oct 8 | +$166.08 | +$79.14 | +$174.55 | +$151.48 |
| Oct 9 | +$166.08 | +$79.14 | +$176.29 | +$154.02 |
| Oct 10 | +$166.41 | +$79.47 | +$176.62 | +$154.02 |
| Oct 11 | +$176.49 | +$89.55 | +$179.32 | +$159.56 |
| Oct 12 | +$176.49 | +$89.55 | +$179.32 | +$159.56 |
| Oct 13 | +$177.12 | +$90.18 | +$179.96 | +$159.56 |
| Oct 14 | +$177.12 | +$90.18 | +$179.96 | +$160.22 |
| Oct 15 | +$1,141 | +$1,073 | +$1,112 | +$958.66 |
| Oct 16 | +$1,171 | +$1,073 | +$1,113 | +$961.67 |
| Oct 17 | +$1,171 | +$1,073 | +$1,113 | +$961.67 |
| Oct 18 | +$1,171 | +$1,073 | +$1,113 | +$961.67 |
| Oct 19 | +$1,171 | +$1,073 | +$1,113 | +$961.67 |
| Oct 20 | +$1,171 | +$1,073 | +$1,113 | +$961.67 |
Every delay side by side
| Delay | Follower PnL | Kept | Filled |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 min | +$1,171 | 82.4% | 33% |
| 1 min | +$1,073 | 75.5% | 28% |
| 5 min (selected) | +$1,113 | 78.4% | 26% |
| 30 min | +$961.67 | 67.7% | 38% |
Where the returns go
- Leader PnL at your size+$1,421
- Delay cost−$261.81
- Slippage helped+$3.39
- Fees (buys $48.98 · sells $0.00)−$48.98
- Follower PnL+$1,113
Leader PnL is scaled to your per-trade size. Delay cost is the price move between the leader's fill and yours; slippage is walking the book to fill your size; fees use the 2026 fee schedule. Methodology.
By category
| Category | Trades | Follower PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Politics | 175 | +$1,113 | +20.4% |
Trades
Each leader buy and the copy we simulated at the selected delay. Open “Details” to see the market fills behind the copy price.
How fills are simulated: a copy can only fill against real taker buys of the same outcome within 10 minutes after the delay, so the headline numbers are conservative. Fill basis adds a second opinion: where no trade proved a fill, order-book or volume evidence may say the size was still fillable (an estimate, never in the headline). Methodology.
Filled whole order · Partial (NN%) part of it · No buyers nobody bought in the window — not counted · Data not in yet too recent to evaluate
| Date | Market | Leader price | Copy price | Fill | Fill basis | Follower PnL | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trades load from the live API when this section is visible. | |||||||
More Politics traders
- 0x55b4…80eaBeat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0x24c8…23e1Beat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0x614d…1546Beat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0x35bb…009bKeeps 77% at a 5-minute delay
- 0xdf17…97d1Keeps 77% at a 5-minute delay
- 0x9c26…74bcKeeps 75% at a 5-minute delay
See the full Politics copyability board, read the methodology, or learn how slippage and fees eat into copied returns.
This is a simulation built from historical on-chain fills; it is not a record of real copy trades. Past results don't predict future results. Only the wallet address and its public Polymarket name are shown.