In backtest, only 26% of 0x35bb…009b's buys could be fully copied at a 5-minute delay
Provisional
Only 26% of this trader's buys could be fully copied at a 5-minute delay, and another 13% only partly; the +$3,815 comes from the part you could copy. A copier who mirrored 0x35bb…009b's 1,987 buys across 198 markets with a 5-minute delay and $100 per trade would have kept 77% of the leader's returns: +$3,815 against +$4,956 for the leader at the same size. In this backtest, most of the edge survived the delay, and 26% of buys could be filled within 10 minutes. The remaining gap is the delay helped by +$261.61, slippage $138.91 and fees $1,264. In the backtest, this simulated copy would have tied up to $25,381 at once across 781 positions.
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Key numbers
The headline numbers only count what real trades in the 10 minutes after the delay prove. “Including estimates” also counts the unproven part of a buy when order-book or trading-volume evidence says it was fillable, at an estimated price. Treat it as an upper view, not a promise. 1,267 estimated: 689 high · 487 medium · 91 low · 196 thin How we estimate
Cumulative PnL across all copied positions
Final values: 0 min: +$3,245; 1 min: +$3,962; 5 min: +$3,815; 30 min: +$5,211. Max drawdown −$2,073 (5 min, Oct 19). Hover or use the arrow keys to read values.
Chart data by day
| Day (UTC) | 0 min | 1 min | 5 min | 30 min |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 22 | +$143.79 | −$65.72 | −$378.22 | −$279.19 |
| Sep 23 | −$315.16 | −$547.29 | −$945.21 | −$853.67 |
| Sep 24 | −$483.74 | −$698.66 | −$866.91 | −$979.11 |
| Sep 25 | −$511.46 | −$675.03 | −$855.90 | −$983.74 |
| Sep 26 | −$547.24 | −$666.73 | −$832.47 | −$986.54 |
| Sep 27 | −$556.81 | −$625.21 | −$799.90 | −$963.40 |
| Sep 28 | −$1,043 | −$946.96 | −$1,289 | −$1,080 |
| Sep 29 | +$626.27 | +$743.26 | +$339.06 | +$578.87 |
| Sep 30 | +$811.08 | +$915.19 | +$483.47 | −$462.99 |
| Oct 1 | +$793.36 | +$903.47 | +$448.19 | −$624.72 |
| Oct 2 | +$891.29 | +$1,004 | +$477.72 | −$912.59 |
| Oct 3 | +$890.84 | +$989.10 | +$456.19 | −$1,229 |
| Oct 4 | +$1,035 | +$1,069 | +$499.50 | −$1,365 |
| Oct 5 | +$1,183 | +$1,221 | +$677.84 | −$1,218 |
| Oct 6 | +$1,342 | +$1,294 | +$710.66 | −$1,202 |
| Oct 7 | +$1,343 | +$1,298 | +$713.65 | −$1,199 |
| Oct 8 | +$1,304 | +$1,272 | +$607.96 | −$1,174 |
| Oct 9 | +$1,207 | +$1,060 | +$499.48 | −$1,332 |
| Oct 10 | +$1,209 | +$1,069 | +$469.61 | −$1,332 |
| Oct 11 | +$1,010 | +$906.57 | +$58.51 | −$1,413 |
| Oct 12 | +$981.28 | +$903.92 | +$65.58 | −$1,420 |
| Oct 13 | +$718.46 | +$713.61 | −$208.83 | −$1,516 |
| Oct 14 | +$718.01 | +$618.30 | −$232.74 | −$1,615 |
| Oct 15 | +$276.25 | +$234.74 | −$594.56 | −$1,441 |
| Oct 16 | +$369.28 | +$322.60 | −$546.20 | −$1,366 |
| Oct 17 | +$289.92 | +$255.12 | −$614.95 | −$1,910 |
| Oct 18 | +$112.09 | +$231.66 | −$582.05 | −$1,887 |
| Oct 19 | −$1,150 | −$984.66 | −$1,330 | −$2,724 |
| Oct 20 | −$1,079 | −$899.50 | −$1,195 | −$2,605 |
| Oct 21 | −$927.86 | −$697.36 | −$1,023 | −$2,290 |
| Oct 22 | −$518.02 | −$240.02 | −$556.77 | −$1,306 |
| Oct 23 | −$1,054 | −$710.23 | −$681.13 | −$1,316 |
| Oct 24 | +$966.53 | +$1,730 | +$1,500 | +$2,540 |
| Oct 25 | +$3,245 | +$3,962 | +$3,815 | +$5,211 |
Every delay side by side
| Delay | Follower PnL | Kept | Filled |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 min | +$3,245 | 65.5% | 33% |
| 1 min | +$3,962 | 79.9% | 29% |
| 5 min (selected) | +$3,815 | 77.0% | 26% |
| 30 min | +$5,211 | 100%+ (Exactly 105.2%: the simulated copy did better than the leader) | 25% |
Where the returns go
- Leader PnL at your size+$4,956
- Delay helped+$261.61
- Slippage−$138.91
- Fees (buys $841.53 · sells $422.56)−$1,264
- Follower PnL+$3,815
Leader PnL is scaled to your per-trade size. Delay cost is the price move between the leader's fill and yours; slippage is walking the book to fill your size; fees use the 2026 fee schedule. Methodology.
By category
| Category | Trades | Follower PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Politics | 1,875 | +$3,887 | +6.8% |
| Geopolitics | 46 | −$46.64 | −4.1% |
| Finance | 27 | −$32.40 | −10.0% |
| Tech | 18 | +$4.30 | +1.6% |
| Culture | 15 | +$28.14 | +15.8% |
| Economy | 5 | $0.00 | 0.0% |
| Sports | 1 | −$25.93 | −64.8% |
Trades
Each leader buy and the copy we simulated at the selected delay. Open “Details” to see the market fills behind the copy price.
How fills are simulated: a copy can only fill against real taker buys of the same outcome within 10 minutes after the delay, so the headline numbers are conservative. Fill basis adds a second opinion: where no trade proved a fill, order-book or volume evidence may say the size was still fillable (an estimate, never in the headline). Methodology.
Filled whole order · Partial (NN%) part of it · No buyers nobody bought in the window — not counted · Data not in yet too recent to evaluate
| Date | Market | Leader price | Copy price | Fill | Fill basis | Follower PnL | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trades load from the live API when this section is visible. | |||||||
More Politics traders
- 0x55b4…80eaBeat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0x24c8…23e1Beat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0x614d…1546Beat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0xdf17…97d1Keeps 77% at a 5-minute delay
- 0x9c26…74bcKeeps 75% at a 5-minute delay
- 0x6575…b198Keeps 68% at a 5-minute delay
See the full Politics copyability board, read the methodology, or learn how slippage and fees eat into copied returns.
This is a simulation built from historical on-chain fills; it is not a record of real copy trades. Past results don't predict future results. Only the wallet address and its public Polymarket name are shown.