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In backtest, only 39% of 0x0a77…9d74's buys could be fully copied at a 5-minute delay

Sports 0x0a77bc0638f13892c8b1d1d2c13ba178540f9d74 Profile on Polymarket

ProvisionalIncludes trades from the last ~40 minutes, so these results may still change. Computed Oct 26, 2026, 02:31 UTC.

Only 39% of this trader's buys could be fully copied at a 5-minute delay, and another 13% only partly; the −$2,184 comes from the part you could copy. A copier who mirrored 0x0a77…9d74's 3,181 buys across 680 markets with a 5-minute delay and $100 per trade would have ended at −$2,184. The leader lost $5,140 at the same size, so there were no returns to keep: the delay helped by +$6,659, slippage $177.14 and fees $3,527. In the backtest, this simulated copy would have tied up to $15,063 at once across 1,643 positions.

Copy delay

Each time the trader buys, the simulation copies this much. Not a total budget.

Key numbers

Follower PnL
−$2,184
Incl. estimates −$16,548
Max drawdown −$16,354
ROI −1.6% on total cost
Returns kept
n/a (The leader lost money at this size, so there were no returns to keep)
Leader, same size −$5,140
leader lost money
Peak capital in use
$15,063
Incl. estimates $24,827
3,181 copied buys · $134,632 total cost
Fill rate
39%
Most buys couldn't be fully copied
Incl. estimates 81%
1,233 filled · 410 partial · 1,538 no buyers
Backtest score
25/100
3,181 buys · 680 markets

The headline numbers only count what real trades in the 10 minutes after the delay prove. “Including estimates” also counts the unproven part of a buy when order-book or trading-volume evidence says it was fillable, at an estimated price. Treat it as an upper view, not a promise. 1,523 estimated: 469 high · 881 medium · 173 low · 410 thin How we estimate

Cumulative PnL across all copied positions

X axis
Max drawdown −$16k

Final values: 0 min: −$3,906; 1 min: −$3,442; 5 min: −$2,184; 30 min: −$18,564. Max drawdown −$16,354 (5 min, Oct 17). Hover or use the arrow keys to read values.

Chart data by day
Day (UTC)0 min1 min5 min30 min
Sep 20$0.00$0.00+$1,388$0.00
Sep 21+$1,359+$1,294+$142.68+$1,285
Sep 22+$525.80−$250.67−$1,992−$573.02
Sep 23+$378.37−$399.20−$2,231−$1,163
Sep 24−$551.26−$1,213−$3,065−$1,791
Sep 25−$551.26−$1,213−$3,065−$1,791
Sep 26+$1,915+$1,317−$802.67−$6,923
Sep 27+$1,271+$744.20−$1,161−$8,495
Sep 28+$1,271+$744.20−$1,161−$8,495
Sep 29+$1,743+$1,298−$823.59−$7,996
Sep 30−$93.47−$535.35−$2,549−$9,454
Oct 1−$2,232−$2,660−$4,632−$11,793
Oct 2−$4,214−$4,748−$6,722−$14,282
Oct 3−$5,218−$5,683−$8,164−$12,809
Oct 4−$10,433−$9,990−$12,197−$16,590
Oct 5−$10,464−$10,002−$12,329−$16,868
Oct 6−$9,818−$9,272−$11,610−$16,375
Oct 7−$10,452−$9,969−$12,441−$16,656
Oct 8−$9,795−$9,129−$11,575−$16,015
Oct 9−$9,627−$8,978−$11,420−$16,170
Oct 10−$5,823−$4,887−$8,629−$13,838
Oct 11−$8,757−$7,718−$11,046−$17,351
Oct 12−$8,600−$7,535−$10,867−$16,513
Oct 13−$10,866−$9,773−$13,147−$17,234
Oct 14−$11,474−$10,220−$13,432−$17,358
Oct 15−$11,420−$10,084−$13,422−$17,285
Oct 16−$11,883−$10,592−$13,895−$17,329
Oct 17−$9,628−$8,479−$9,325−$15,703
Oct 18−$10,256−$9,507−$7,732−$17,638
Oct 19−$10,060−$9,419−$7,539−$18,106
Oct 20−$10,479−$9,736−$7,824−$18,258
Oct 21−$10,479−$9,736−$7,824−$18,258
Oct 22−$10,725−$9,763−$7,824−$18,611
Oct 23−$10,310−$9,334−$7,411−$18,507
Oct 24−$3,416−$2,663−$1,564−$18,243
Oct 25−$3,902−$3,433−$2,221−$18,564
Oct 26−$3,906−$3,442−$2,184−$18,564

Every delay side by side

DelayFollower PnLKeptFilled
0 min−$3,906n/a (The leader lost money at this size, so there were no returns to keep)41%
1 min−$3,442n/a (The leader lost money at this size, so there were no returns to keep)40%
5 min (selected)−$2,184n/a (The leader lost money at this size, so there were no returns to keep)39%
30 min−$18,564n/a (The leader lost money at this size, so there were no returns to keep)31%

Where the returns go

  1. Leader PnL at your size−$5,140
  2. Delay helped+$6,659
  3. Slippage−$177.14
  4. Fees (buys $3,527 · sells $0.00)−$3,527
  5. Follower PnL−$2,184

Leader PnL is scaled to your per-trade size. Delay cost is the price move between the leader's fill and yours; slippage is walking the book to fill your size; fees use the 2026 fee schedule. Methodology.

By category

CategoryTradesFollower PnLROI
Sports3,181−$2,184−1.6%

Data version 12086 · computed Oct 26, 2026 · 7 unsettled positions marked at the last traded price.

Trades

Each leader buy and the copy we simulated at the selected delay. Open “Details” to see the market fills behind the copy price.

How fills are simulated: a copy can only fill against real taker buys of the same outcome within 10 minutes after the delay, so the headline numbers are conservative. Fill basis adds a second opinion: where no trade proved a fill, order-book or volume evidence may say the size was still fillable (an estimate, never in the headline). Methodology.

Filled whole order · Partial (NN%) part of it · No buyers nobody bought in the window — not counted · Data not in yet too recent to evaluate

Show
Order
Date Market Leader price Copy price Fill Fill basis Follower PnL Details
Trades load from the live API when this section is visible.
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More Sports traders

See the full Sports copyability board, read the methodology, or learn how slippage and fees eat into copied returns.

This is a simulation built from historical on-chain fills; it is not a record of real copy trades. Past results don't predict future results. Only the wallet address and its public Polymarket name are shown.