In backtest, only 13% of 0x1229…df38's buys could be fully copied at a 5-minute delay
Provisional
Only 13% of this trader's buys could be fully copied at a 5-minute delay, and another 8% only partly; the +$463.28 comes from the part you could copy. A copier who mirrored 0x1229…df38's 1,706 buys across 182 markets with a 5-minute delay and $100 per trade would have ended at +$463.28. The leader lost $8,094 at the same size, so there were no returns to keep; the copier only came out ahead because later prices happened to be better: the delay helped by +$9,061, slippage helped by +$44.25 and fees $547.38. In the backtest, this simulated copy would have tied up to $10,484 at once across 364 positions.
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Key numbers
The headline numbers only count what real trades in the 10 minutes after the delay prove. “Including estimates” also counts the unproven part of a buy when order-book or trading-volume evidence says it was fillable, at an estimated price. Treat it as an upper view, not a promise. 1,029 estimated: 329 high · 302 medium · 398 low · 444 thin How we estimate
Cumulative PnL across all copied positions
Final values: 0 min: −$204.35; 1 min: +$1,027; 5 min: +$463.28; 30 min: −$3,545. Max drawdown −$5,274 (5 min, Oct 25). Hover or use the arrow keys to read values.
Chart data by day
| Day (UTC) | 0 min | 1 min | 5 min | 30 min |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 21 | +$442.61 | +$549.36 | +$397.99 | +$741.72 |
| Sep 22 | +$561.02 | +$662.57 | +$587.58 | +$823.63 |
| Sep 23 | +$561.02 | +$662.57 | +$587.58 | +$823.63 |
| Sep 24 | +$551.80 | +$668.16 | +$587.58 | +$818.58 |
| Sep 25 | +$563.10 | +$672.10 | +$589.29 | +$821.55 |
| Sep 26 | +$639.35 | +$773.67 | +$736.73 | +$945.57 |
| Sep 27 | +$635.37 | +$773.88 | +$736.73 | +$1,000 |
| Sep 28 | +$1,034 | +$1,154 | +$1,302 | +$1,561 |
| Sep 29 | +$1,151 | +$1,268 | +$1,368 | +$1,644 |
| Sep 30 | +$1,321 | +$1,456 | +$1,470 | +$1,782 |
| Oct 1 | +$1,543 | +$1,837 | +$1,803 | +$1,908 |
| Oct 2 | +$1,506 | +$1,799 | +$1,792 | +$1,807 |
| Oct 3 | +$1,406 | +$1,700 | +$1,792 | +$1,807 |
| Oct 4 | +$2,090 | +$2,315 | +$1,572 | +$1,947 |
| Oct 5 | +$2,062 | +$2,295 | +$1,562 | +$1,926 |
| Oct 6 | +$2,059 | +$2,292 | +$1,563 | +$1,926 |
| Oct 7 | +$2,059 | +$2,292 | +$1,563 | +$1,927 |
| Oct 8 | +$2,076 | +$2,300 | +$1,553 | +$1,922 |
| Oct 9 | +$1,980 | +$2,204 | +$1,560 | +$1,922 |
| Oct 10 | +$1,953 | +$2,179 | +$1,541 | +$1,912 |
| Oct 11 | +$1,953 | +$2,179 | +$1,541 | +$1,912 |
| Oct 12 | +$1,916 | +$2,147 | +$1,519 | +$1,890 |
| Oct 13 | +$1,916 | +$2,147 | +$1,519 | +$1,890 |
| Oct 14 | +$2,172 | +$2,394 | +$1,686 | +$1,278 |
| Oct 15 | +$5,359 | +$5,655 | +$4,794 | +$1,549 |
| Oct 16 | +$5,347 | +$5,644 | +$4,784 | +$1,544 |
| Oct 17 | +$5,341 | +$5,641 | +$4,783 | +$1,539 |
| Oct 18 | +$5,354 | +$5,647 | +$4,798 | +$1,547 |
| Oct 19 | +$5,347 | +$5,640 | +$4,791 | +$1,293 |
| Oct 20 | +$4,959 | +$5,351 | +$4,636 | +$1,046 |
| Oct 21 | +$4,959 | +$5,351 | +$4,636 | +$1,046 |
| Oct 22 | +$4,539 | +$4,966 | +$4,306 | +$1,032 |
| Oct 23 | +$3,507 | +$3,906 | +$3,393 | +$50.87 |
| Oct 24 | −$50.84 | +$1,274 | +$912.93 | −$2,217 |
| Oct 25 | −$276.86 | +$958.90 | +$419.11 | −$3,562 |
| Oct 26 | −$204.35 | +$1,027 | +$463.28 | −$3,545 |
Every delay side by side
| Delay | Follower PnL | Kept | Filled |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 min | −$204.35 | n/a (The leader lost money at this size, so there were no returns to keep) | 15% |
| 1 min | +$1,027 | n/a (The leader lost money at this size, so there were no returns to keep) | 14% |
| 5 min (selected) | +$463.28 | n/a (The leader lost money at this size, so there were no returns to keep) | 13% |
| 30 min | −$3,545 | n/a (The leader lost money at this size, so there were no returns to keep) | 13% |
Where the returns go
- Leader PnL at your size−$8,094
- Delay helped+$9,061
- Slippage helped+$44.25
- Fees (buys $407.82 · sells $139.56)−$547.38
- Follower PnL+$463.28
Leader PnL is scaled to your per-trade size. Delay cost is the price move between the leader's fill and yours; slippage is walking the book to fill your size; fees use the 2026 fee schedule. Methodology.
By category
| Category | Trades | Follower PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Politics | 1,427 | +$738.68 | +2.9% |
| Economy | 191 | +$7.10 | +2.2% |
| Crypto | 70 | $0.00 | 0.0% |
| Sports | 10 | −$282.50 | −47.1% |
| Finance | 8 | $0.00 | 0.0% |
Trades
Each leader buy and the copy we simulated at the selected delay. Open “Details” to see the market fills behind the copy price.
How fills are simulated: a copy can only fill against real taker buys of the same outcome within 10 minutes after the delay, so the headline numbers are conservative. Fill basis adds a second opinion: where no trade proved a fill, order-book or volume evidence may say the size was still fillable (an estimate, never in the headline). Methodology.
Filled whole order · Partial (NN%) part of it · No buyers nobody bought in the window — not counted · Data not in yet too recent to evaluate
| Date | Market | Leader price | Copy price | Fill | Fill basis | Follower PnL | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trades load from the live API when this section is visible. | |||||||
More Politics traders
- 0x55b4…80eaBeat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0x24c8…23e1Beat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0x614d…1546Beat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0x14a1…9912Leader lost money at this size
- 0x162f…798dLeader lost money at this size
- 0x1f0a…f7aaKeeps −23% at a 5-minute delay
See the full Politics copyability board, read the methodology, or learn how slippage and fees eat into copied returns.
This is a simulation built from historical on-chain fills; it is not a record of real copy trades. Past results don't predict future results. Only the wallet address and its public Polymarket name are shown.