In backtest, only 19% of 0x1691…304f's buys could be fully copied at a 5-minute delay
Provisional
Only 19% of this trader's buys could be fully copied at a 5-minute delay, and another 15% only partly; the −$277.17 comes from the part you could copy. A copier who mirrored 0x1691…304f's 946 buys across 256 markets with a 5-minute delay and $100 per trade would have ended at −$277.17, while the leader made +$479.64 at the same size. At a 5-minute delay a follower can't keep up: delay cost $238.71, slippage $0.63 and fees $517.47 outweigh whatever edge the leader had. In the backtest, this simulated copy would have tied up to $2,985 at once across 320 positions.
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Key numbers
The headline numbers only count what real trades in the 10 minutes after the delay prove. “Including estimates” also counts the unproven part of a buy when order-book or trading-volume evidence says it was fillable, at an estimated price. Treat it as an upper view, not a promise. 549 estimated: 316 high · 158 medium · 75 low · 206 thin How we estimate
Cumulative PnL across all copied positions
Final values: 0 min: −$1,893; 1 min: −$803.81; 5 min: −$277.17; 30 min: +$1,526. Max drawdown −$1,862 (5 min, Sep 26). Hover or use the arrow keys to read values.
Chart data by day
| Day (UTC) | 0 min | 1 min | 5 min | 30 min |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 21 | −$21.79 | +$0.13 | −$18.03 | $0.00 |
| Sep 22 | −$42.76 | +$10.07 | −$8.09 | −$87.57 |
| Sep 23 | +$542.28 | +$589.51 | +$629.32 | +$42.64 |
| Sep 24 | −$317.22 | −$223.92 | −$165.19 | −$540.27 |
| Sep 25 | −$1,165 | −$957.82 | −$330.83 | −$1,490 |
| Sep 26 | −$1,536 | −$1,226 | −$1,084 | −$1,787 |
| Sep 27 | −$1,368 | −$1,211 | −$676.05 | −$1,425 |
| Sep 28 | −$292.51 | −$137.71 | +$504.72 | −$290.11 |
| Sep 29 | −$347.30 | −$266.90 | +$353.18 | −$223.23 |
| Sep 30 | +$325.02 | +$523.53 | +$959.00 | −$301.88 |
| Oct 1 | +$354.12 | +$552.03 | +$1,156 | +$996.91 |
| Oct 2 | +$123.89 | +$321.85 | +$1,059 | +$1,075 |
| Oct 3 | +$154.58 | +$401.68 | +$1,134 | +$1,079 |
| Oct 4 | −$930.84 | −$647.88 | +$277.76 | +$543.23 |
| Oct 5 | −$765.56 | −$482.61 | +$335.08 | +$644.22 |
| Oct 6 | −$762.75 | −$473.69 | +$348.17 | +$833.46 |
| Oct 7 | −$591.38 | −$346.49 | +$550.50 | +$898.10 |
| Oct 8 | −$591.38 | −$346.49 | +$550.50 | +$898.10 |
| Oct 9 | −$594.47 | −$355.00 | +$545.44 | +$898.10 |
| Oct 10 | −$460.16 | −$257.63 | +$643.34 | +$959.98 |
| Oct 11 | −$445.12 | −$336.74 | +$466.53 | +$930.28 |
| Oct 12 | −$332.30 | −$221.12 | +$511.84 | +$987.80 |
| Oct 13 | +$108.02 | +$326.97 | +$1,160 | +$1,518 |
| Oct 14 | −$450.28 | −$148.80 | +$642.62 | +$1,295 |
| Oct 15 | −$294.07 | +$86.08 | +$686.03 | +$1,566 |
| Oct 16 | −$214.51 | +$154.50 | +$743.61 | +$1,833 |
| Oct 17 | +$457.44 | +$765.94 | +$1,437 | +$2,613 |
| Oct 18 | +$68.87 | +$475.63 | +$1,078 | +$2,577 |
| Oct 19 | +$75.33 | +$476.76 | +$1,078 | +$2,577 |
| Oct 20 | +$133.98 | +$612.59 | +$1,176 | +$2,772 |
| Oct 21 | −$483.72 | +$77.86 | +$743.21 | +$2,367 |
| Oct 22 | −$1,198 | −$535.58 | +$226.70 | +$2,456 |
| Oct 23 | −$1,403 | −$467.88 | +$339.38 | +$2,276 |
| Oct 24 | −$1,969 | −$974.20 | −$98.92 | +$1,951 |
| Oct 25 | −$1,893 | −$803.81 | −$277.17 | +$1,526 |
Every delay side by side
| Delay | Follower PnL | Kept | Filled |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 min | −$1,893 | −395% | 24% |
| 1 min | −$803.81 | −168% | 21% |
| 5 min (selected) | −$277.17 | −57.8% | 19% |
| 30 min | +$1,526 | 100%+ (Exactly 318.1%: the simulated copy did better than the leader) | 19% |
Where the returns go
- Leader PnL at your size+$479.64
- Delay cost−$238.71
- Slippage−$0.63
- Fees (buys $515.64 · sells $1.83)−$517.47
- Follower PnL−$277.17
Leader PnL is scaled to your per-trade size. Delay cost is the price move between the leader's fill and yours; slippage is walking the book to fill your size; fees use the 2026 fee schedule. Methodology.
By category
| Category | Trades | Follower PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 946 | −$277.17 | −1.3% |
Trades
Each leader buy and the copy we simulated at the selected delay. Open “Details” to see the market fills behind the copy price.
How fills are simulated: a copy can only fill against real taker buys of the same outcome within 10 minutes after the delay, so the headline numbers are conservative. Fill basis adds a second opinion: where no trade proved a fill, order-book or volume evidence may say the size was still fillable (an estimate, never in the headline). Methodology.
Filled whole order · Partial (NN%) part of it · No buyers nobody bought in the window — not counted · Data not in yet too recent to evaluate
| Date | Market | Leader price | Copy price | Fill | Fill basis | Follower PnL | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trades load from the live API when this section is visible. | |||||||
More Sports traders
- 0x74b7…8b0bBeat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0xf28e…cab2Beat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0x5dee…30b1Beat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0x21d0…ce91Keeps 7% at a 5-minute delay
- 0x8b01…24a9Leader lost money at this size
- 0xcc32…92d2Leader lost money at this size
See the full Sports copyability board, read the methodology, or learn how slippage and fees eat into copied returns.
This is a simulation built from historical on-chain fills; it is not a record of real copy trades. Past results don't predict future results. Only the wallet address and its public Polymarket name are shown.