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In backtest, only 17% of 0x187f…5fee's buys could be fully copied at a 5-minute delay

Politics 0x187fbd3114592d6a5420c937ca14e9cf64f55fee Profile on Polymarket

ProvisionalIncludes trades from the last ~40 minutes, so these results may still change. Computed Oct 26, 2026, 02:32 UTC.

Only 17% of this trader's buys could be fully copied at a 5-minute delay, and another 12% only partly; the −$2,786 comes from the part you could copy. A copier who mirrored 0x187f…5fee's 763 buys across 132 markets with a 5-minute delay and $100 per trade would have ended at −$2,786. The leader lost $2,351 at the same size, so there were no returns to keep: the delay helped by +$63.32, slippage $153.67 and fees $344.15. In the backtest, this simulated copy would have tied up to $6,217 at once across 222 positions.

Copy delay

Each time the trader buys, the simulation copies this much. Not a total budget.

Key numbers

Follower PnL
−$2,786
Incl. estimates −$6,911
Max drawdown −$2,852
ROI −17.4% on total cost
Returns kept
n/a (The leader lost money at this size, so there were no returns to keep)
Leader, same size −$2,351
leader lost money
Peak capital in use
$6,217
Incl. estimates $29,701
763 copied buys · $16,015 total cost
Fill rate
17%
Most buys couldn't be fully copied
Incl. estimates 60%
133 filled · 89 partial · 541 no buyers
Backtest score
19/100
763 buys · 132 markets

The headline numbers only count what real trades in the 10 minutes after the delay prove. “Including estimates” also counts the unproven part of a buy when order-book or trading-volume evidence says it was fillable, at an estimated price. Treat it as an upper view, not a promise. 426 estimated: 171 high · 180 medium · 75 low · 189 thin How we estimate

Cumulative PnL across all copied positions

X axis
Max drawdown −$2.9k

Final values: 0 min: −$3,013; 1 min: −$2,706; 5 min: −$2,786; 30 min: −$2,308. Max drawdown −$2,852 (5 min, Oct 24). Hover or use the arrow keys to read values.

Chart data by day
Day (UTC)0 min1 min5 min30 min
Sep 20+$9.12+$8.62+$0.81$0.00
Sep 21−$153.45−$153.95−$159.60$0.00
Sep 22−$1,718−$1,728−$1,629−$1,344
Sep 23−$1,718−$1,728−$1,629−$1,344
Sep 24−$1,803−$1,777−$1,581−$1,329
Sep 25−$1,798−$1,702−$1,560−$1,422
Sep 26−$1,751−$1,606−$1,545−$1,357
Sep 27−$1,768−$1,618−$1,554−$1,414
Sep 28−$2,005−$1,878−$1,663−$1,356
Sep 29−$2,005−$1,878−$1,663−$1,356
Sep 30−$2,005−$1,878−$1,663−$1,356
Oct 1−$1,971−$1,781−$1,627−$1,451
Oct 2−$2,372−$2,111−$1,795−$1,494
Oct 3−$2,408−$2,137−$1,801−$1,565
Oct 4−$2,419−$2,137−$1,809−$1,724
Oct 5−$2,424−$2,141−$1,809−$1,936
Oct 6−$2,466−$2,184−$1,834−$1,936
Oct 7−$2,550−$2,194−$1,907−$2,040
Oct 8−$2,934−$2,346−$2,181−$2,340
Oct 9−$2,840−$2,279−$2,146−$2,370
Oct 10−$2,877−$2,305−$2,178−$2,370
Oct 11−$2,867−$2,295−$2,173−$2,382
Oct 12−$2,867−$2,295−$2,173−$2,382
Oct 13−$2,868−$2,293−$2,171−$2,381
Oct 14−$2,862−$2,290−$2,168−$2,379
Oct 15−$2,862−$2,290−$2,168−$2,379
Oct 16−$2,786−$2,269−$2,150−$2,358
Oct 17−$2,789−$2,283−$2,165−$2,358
Oct 18−$2,789−$2,283−$2,165−$2,358
Oct 19−$2,241−$2,004−$2,142−$2,258
Oct 20−$2,348−$2,096−$2,329−$2,260
Oct 21−$2,848−$2,562−$2,739−$2,391
Oct 22−$2,864−$2,568−$2,739−$2,342
Oct 23−$2,962−$2,669−$2,796−$2,234
Oct 24−$3,044−$2,736−$2,851−$2,305
Oct 25−$3,012−$2,705−$2,785−$2,308
Oct 26−$3,013−$2,706−$2,786−$2,308

Every delay side by side

DelayFollower PnLKeptFilled
0 min−$3,013n/a (The leader lost money at this size, so there were no returns to keep)21%
1 min−$2,706n/a (The leader lost money at this size, so there were no returns to keep)19%
5 min (selected)−$2,786n/a (The leader lost money at this size, so there were no returns to keep)17%
30 min−$2,308n/a (The leader lost money at this size, so there were no returns to keep)12%

Where the returns go

  1. Leader PnL at your size−$2,351
  2. Delay helped+$63.32
  3. Slippage−$153.67
  4. Fees (buys $256.44 · sells $87.71)−$344.15
  5. Follower PnL−$2,786

Leader PnL is scaled to your per-trade size. Delay cost is the price move between the leader's fill and yours; slippage is walking the book to fill your size; fees use the 2026 fee schedule. Methodology.

By category

CategoryTradesFollower PnLROI
Politics681−$2,641−17.2%
Geopolitics47−$15.05−2.9%
Culture23+$10.44+63.5%
Finance12−$140.04−102%

Data version 12087 · computed Oct 26, 2026 · 448 unsettled positions marked at the last traded price.

Trades

Each leader buy and the copy we simulated at the selected delay. Open “Details” to see the market fills behind the copy price.

How fills are simulated: a copy can only fill against real taker buys of the same outcome within 10 minutes after the delay, so the headline numbers are conservative. Fill basis adds a second opinion: where no trade proved a fill, order-book or volume evidence may say the size was still fillable (an estimate, never in the headline). Methodology.

Filled whole order · Partial (NN%) part of it · No buyers nobody bought in the window — not counted · Data not in yet too recent to evaluate

Show
Order
Date Market Leader price Copy price Fill Fill basis Follower PnL Details
Trades load from the live API when this section is visible.
Page 1

More Politics traders

See the full Politics copyability board, read the methodology, or learn how slippage and fees eat into copied returns.

This is a simulation built from historical on-chain fills; it is not a record of real copy trades. Past results don't predict future results. Only the wallet address and its public Polymarket name are shown.