In backtest, only 42% of 0x1ea0…ae77's buys could be fully copied at a 5-minute delay
Provisional
Only 42% of this trader's buys could be fully copied at a 5-minute delay, and another 14% only partly; the +$283.69 comes from the part you could copy. A copier who mirrored 0x1ea0…ae77's 83 buys across 57 markets with a 5-minute delay and $100 per trade would have ended at +$283.69. The leader lost $88.21 at the same size, so there were no returns to keep; the copier only came out ahead because later prices happened to be better: the delay helped by +$485.48, slippage helped by +$6.73 and fees $120.31. In the backtest, this simulated copy would have tied up to $946.09 at once across 47 positions.
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Key numbers
The headline numbers only count what real trades in the 10 minutes after the delay prove. “Including estimates” also counts the unproven part of a buy when order-book or trading-volume evidence says it was fillable, at an estimated price. Treat it as an upper view, not a promise. 44 estimated: 6 high · 20 medium · 18 low · 4 thin How we estimate
Cumulative PnL across all copied positions
Final values: 0 min: +$1,587; 1 min: +$1,305; 5 min: +$283.69; 30 min: +$1,170. Max drawdown −$518.95 (5 min, Sep 22). Hover or use the arrow keys to read values.
Chart data by day
| Day (UTC) | 0 min | 1 min | 5 min | 30 min |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 21 | +$962.88 | +$933.68 | +$290.23 | −$86.96 |
| Sep 22 | +$1,048 | +$915.68 | +$5.07 | +$54.45 |
| Sep 23 | +$1,099 | +$963.67 | +$43.11 | +$3.11 |
| Sep 24 | +$1,099 | +$963.67 | +$43.11 | +$1.53 |
| Sep 25 | +$1,099 | +$963.67 | +$43.11 | +$1.53 |
| Sep 26 | +$1,941 | +$1,713 | +$567.61 | +$369.04 |
| Sep 27 | +$1,941 | +$1,713 | +$567.61 | +$369.04 |
| Sep 28 | +$1,975 | +$1,766 | +$588.11 | +$428.43 |
| Sep 29 | +$1,975 | +$1,766 | +$588.11 | +$413.62 |
| Sep 30 | +$1,975 | +$1,766 | +$588.11 | +$413.62 |
| Oct 1 | +$1,975 | +$1,766 | +$588.11 | +$413.62 |
| Oct 2 | +$1,975 | +$1,766 | +$588.11 | +$413.62 |
| Oct 3 | +$1,975 | +$1,766 | +$588.11 | +$413.62 |
| Oct 4 | +$1,966 | +$1,757 | +$578.75 | +$413.62 |
| Oct 5 | +$1,966 | +$1,757 | +$578.75 | +$413.62 |
| Oct 6 | +$1,966 | +$1,757 | +$578.75 | +$413.62 |
| Oct 7 | +$1,966 | +$1,757 | +$578.75 | +$413.62 |
| Oct 8 | +$1,966 | +$1,757 | +$578.75 | +$413.62 |
| Oct 9 | +$1,781 | +$1,572 | +$538.43 | +$260.40 |
| Oct 10 | +$1,781 | +$1,572 | +$538.43 | +$260.40 |
| Oct 11 | +$1,571 | +$1,362 | +$328.76 | +$260.40 |
| Oct 12 | +$1,790 | +$1,548 | +$458.47 | +$408.36 |
| Oct 13 | +$1,727 | +$1,446 | +$356.57 | +$306.53 |
| Oct 14 | +$1,727 | +$1,446 | +$356.57 | +$306.53 |
| Oct 15 | +$1,727 | +$1,446 | +$356.57 | +$306.53 |
| Oct 16 | +$1,666 | +$1,389 | +$316.01 | +$97.31 |
| Oct 17 | +$1,686 | +$1,407 | +$387.07 | +$1,286 |
| Oct 18 | +$1,686 | +$1,407 | +$387.07 | +$1,286 |
| Oct 19 | +$1,686 | +$1,407 | +$387.07 | +$1,286 |
| Oct 20 | +$1,686 | +$1,407 | +$387.07 | +$1,286 |
| Oct 21 | +$1,588 | +$1,307 | +$284.87 | +$1,190 |
| Oct 22 | +$1,588 | +$1,307 | +$284.87 | +$1,190 |
| Oct 23 | +$1,588 | +$1,306 | +$284.87 | +$1,191 |
| Oct 24 | +$1,587 | +$1,305 | +$283.69 | +$1,170 |
| Oct 25 | +$1,587 | +$1,305 | +$283.69 | +$1,170 |
Every delay side by side
| Delay | Follower PnL | Kept | Filled |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 min | +$1,587 | n/a (The leader lost money at this size, so there were no returns to keep) | 40% |
| 1 min | +$1,305 | n/a (The leader lost money at this size, so there were no returns to keep) | 41% |
| 5 min (selected) | +$283.69 | n/a (The leader lost money at this size, so there were no returns to keep) | 42% |
| 30 min | +$1,170 | n/a (The leader lost money at this size, so there were no returns to keep) | 37% |
Where the returns go
- Leader PnL at your size−$88.21
- Delay helped+$485.48
- Slippage helped+$6.73
- Fees (buys $100.89 · sells $19.42)−$120.31
- Follower PnL+$283.69
Leader PnL is scaled to your per-trade size. Delay cost is the price move between the leader's fill and yours; slippage is walking the book to fill your size; fees use the 2026 fee schedule. Methodology.
By category
| Category | Trades | Follower PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 42 | +$323.83 | +14.1% |
| Crypto | 30 | −$87.66 | −6.3% |
| Politics | 8 | +$47.51 | +44.8% |
| Economy | 3 | $0.00 | 0.0% |
Trades
Each leader buy and the copy we simulated at the selected delay. Open “Details” to see the market fills behind the copy price.
How fills are simulated: a copy can only fill against real taker buys of the same outcome within 10 minutes after the delay, so the headline numbers are conservative. Fill basis adds a second opinion: where no trade proved a fill, order-book or volume evidence may say the size was still fillable (an estimate, never in the headline). Methodology.
Filled whole order · Partial (NN%) part of it · No buyers nobody bought in the window — not counted · Data not in yet too recent to evaluate
| Date | Market | Leader price | Copy price | Fill | Fill basis | Follower PnL | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trades load from the live API when this section is visible. | |||||||
More Sports traders
- 0x74b7…8b0bBeat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0xf28e…cab2Beat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0x5dee…30b1Beat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0x351e…bfa6Leader lost money at this size
- 0x629c…6c01Leader lost money at this size
- 0x93cc…6ffcKeeps 12% at a 5-minute delay
See the full Sports copyability board, read the methodology, or learn how slippage and fees eat into copied returns.
This is a simulation built from historical on-chain fills; it is not a record of real copy trades. Past results don't predict future results. Only the wallet address and its public Polymarket name are shown.