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In backtest, only 33% of 0x629c…6c01's buys could be fully copied at a 5-minute delay

Sports 0x629c2844d5c0e36774a67fe10dcd43ca31a76c01 Profile on Polymarket

Only 33% of this trader's buys could be fully copied at a 5-minute delay, and another 7% only partly; the −$3,531 comes from the part you could copy. A copier who mirrored 0x629c…6c01's 1,307 buys across 76 markets with a 5-minute delay and $100 per trade would have ended at −$3,531. The leader lost $18,070 at the same size, so there were no returns to keep: the delay helped by +$15,118, slippage helped by +$22.21 and fees $601.76. In the backtest, this simulated copy would have tied up to $30,402 at once across 521 positions.

Copy delay

Each time the trader buys, the simulation copies this much. Not a total budget.

Key numbers

Follower PnL
−$3,531
Incl. estimates −$29,588
Max drawdown −$8,920
ROI −7.7% on total cost
Returns kept
n/a (The leader lost money at this size, so there were no returns to keep)
Leader, same size −$18,070
leader lost money
Peak capital in use
$30,402
Incl. estimates $52,224
1,307 copied buys · $45,891 total cost
Fill rate
33%
Most buys couldn't be fully copied
Incl. estimates 70%
435 filled · 86 partial · 786 no buyers
Backtest score
23/100
1,307 buys · 76 markets

The headline numbers only count what real trades in the 10 minutes after the delay prove. “Including estimates” also counts the unproven part of a buy when order-book or trading-volume evidence says it was fillable, at an estimated price. Treat it as an upper view, not a promise. 601 estimated: 4 high · 475 medium · 122 low · 267 thin How we estimate

Cumulative PnL across all copied positions

X axis
Max drawdown −$8.9k

Final values: 0 min: −$1,709; 1 min: −$1,776; 5 min: −$3,531; 30 min: −$6,654. Max drawdown −$8,920 (5 min, Oct 21). Hover or use the arrow keys to read values.

Chart data by day
Day (UTC)0 min1 min5 min30 min
Sep 22+$113.20+$111.51+$402.42+$265.76
Sep 23−$350.56−$350.55−$150.42−$1,005
Sep 24−$1,507−$1,335−$1,884−$1,442
Sep 25−$1,921−$1,734−$2,555−$3,870
Sep 26−$2,932−$2,587−$3,889−$4,409
Sep 27−$3,267−$3,005−$4,061−$4,861
Sep 28−$3,193−$2,944−$4,133−$5,181
Sep 29−$2,871−$2,619−$3,710−$3,339
Sep 30−$2,017−$1,680−$2,696−$3,120
Oct 1−$3,718−$3,413−$4,431−$5,693
Oct 2−$3,835−$3,517−$4,533−$5,798
Oct 3−$4,296−$4,046−$5,057−$5,899
Oct 4−$6,583−$6,477−$7,313−$9,316
Oct 5−$7,487−$7,381−$8,066−$9,974
Oct 6−$7,364−$7,255−$7,911−$9,909
Oct 7−$7,565−$7,556−$8,317−$10,310
Oct 8−$7,665−$7,556−$8,417−$10,310
Oct 9−$7,665−$7,556−$8,417−$10,310
Oct 10−$7,665−$7,556−$8,417−$10,310
Oct 11−$7,665−$7,556−$8,417−$10,310
Oct 12−$7,665−$7,556−$8,417−$10,310
Oct 13−$7,665−$7,556−$8,417−$10,310
Oct 14−$7,665−$7,556−$8,417−$10,310
Oct 15−$7,665−$7,556−$8,417−$10,310
Oct 16−$7,665−$7,556−$8,417−$10,310
Oct 17−$7,665−$7,556−$8,417−$10,310
Oct 18−$7,665−$7,556−$8,417−$10,310
Oct 19−$7,665−$7,556−$8,417−$10,310
Oct 20−$7,665−$7,556−$8,417−$10,310
Oct 21−$7,765−$7,556−$8,518−$10,412
Oct 22−$7,765−$7,556−$8,518−$10,412
Oct 23−$7,765−$7,556−$8,518−$10,412
Oct 24−$7,765−$7,556−$8,518−$10,412
Oct 25−$1,696−$1,759−$3,511−$6,654
Oct 26−$1,709−$1,776−$3,531−$6,654

Every delay side by side

DelayFollower PnLKeptFilled
0 min−$1,709n/a (The leader lost money at this size, so there were no returns to keep)32%
1 min−$1,776n/a (The leader lost money at this size, so there were no returns to keep)32%
5 min (selected)−$3,531n/a (The leader lost money at this size, so there were no returns to keep)33%
30 min−$6,654n/a (The leader lost money at this size, so there were no returns to keep)33%

Where the returns go

  1. Leader PnL at your size−$18,070
  2. Delay helped+$15,118
  3. Slippage helped+$22.21
  4. Fees (buys $595.60 · sells $6.16)−$601.76
  5. Follower PnL−$3,531

Leader PnL is scaled to your per-trade size. Delay cost is the price move between the leader's fill and yours; slippage is walking the book to fill your size; fees use the 2026 fee schedule. Methodology.

By category

CategoryTradesFollower PnLROI
Sports717−$3,632−24.0%
Politics590+$100.39+0.3%

Data version 12074 · computed Oct 26, 2026 · 550 unsettled positions marked at the last traded price.

Trades

Each leader buy and the copy we simulated at the selected delay. Open “Details” to see the market fills behind the copy price.

How fills are simulated: a copy can only fill against real taker buys of the same outcome within 10 minutes after the delay, so the headline numbers are conservative. Fill basis adds a second opinion: where no trade proved a fill, order-book or volume evidence may say the size was still fillable (an estimate, never in the headline). Methodology.

Filled whole order · Partial (NN%) part of it · No buyers nobody bought in the window — not counted · Data not in yet too recent to evaluate

Show
Order
Date Market Leader price Copy price Fill Fill basis Follower PnL Details
Trades load from the live API when this section is visible.
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More Sports traders

See the full Sports copyability board, read the methodology, or learn how slippage and fees eat into copied returns.

This is a simulation built from historical on-chain fills; it is not a record of real copy trades. Past results don't predict future results. Only the wallet address and its public Polymarket name are shown.