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In backtest, only 7% of 0x3a8a…7699's buys could be fully copied at a 5-minute delay

Politics 0x3a8aa345d5db7ec5138298c8c4f4540259be7699 Profile on Polymarket

Only 7% of this trader's buys could be fully copied at a 5-minute delay, and another 13% only partly; the +$8,078 comes from the part you could copy. A copier who mirrored 0x3a8a…7699's 724 buys across 42 markets with a 5-minute delay and $100 per trade would have ended at +$8,078. The leader lost $948.78 at the same size, so there were no returns to keep; the copier only came out ahead because later prices happened to be better: the delay helped by +$9,181, slippage helped by +$10.71 and fees $165.55. In the backtest, this simulated copy would have tied up to $6,123 at once across 148 positions.

Copy delay

Each time the trader buys, the simulation copies this much. Not a total budget.

Key numbers

Follower PnL
+$8,078
Incl. estimates −$1,778
Max drawdown −$1,872
ROI +111% on total cost
Returns kept
n/a (The leader lost money at this size, so there were no returns to keep)
Leader, same size −$948.78
leader lost money
Peak capital in use
$6,123
Incl. estimates $45,848
724 copied buys · $7,262 total cost
Fill rate
7%
Most buys couldn't be fully copied
Incl. estimates 73%
51 filled · 97 partial · 576 no buyers
Backtest score
17/100
724 buys · 42 markets

The headline numbers only count what real trades in the 10 minutes after the delay prove. “Including estimates” also counts the unproven part of a buy when order-book or trading-volume evidence says it was fillable, at an estimated price. Treat it as an upper view, not a promise. 570 estimated: 186 high · 295 medium · 89 low · 97 thin How we estimate

Cumulative PnL across all copied positions

X axis
Max drawdown −$1.9k

Final values: 0 min: +$5,448; 1 min: +$6,730; 5 min: +$8,078; 30 min: +$8,477. Max drawdown −$1,872 (5 min, Oct 16). Hover or use the arrow keys to read values.

Chart data by day
Day (UTC)0 min1 min5 min30 min
Sep 21−$250.05−$167.26−$168.44−$94.30
Sep 22−$250.05−$167.26−$168.44−$94.30
Sep 23−$694.01−$602.94−$604.94−$477.77
Sep 24−$859.76−$666.85−$706.88−$696.02
Sep 25−$919.98−$687.37−$727.82−$701.84
Sep 26−$919.98−$687.37−$727.82−$701.84
Sep 27−$923.77−$687.68−$763.32−$701.84
Sep 28−$1,281−$894.88−$988.27−$711.62
Sep 29−$1,413−$1,025−$1,118−$964.95
Sep 30−$1,889−$1,322−$1,410−$1,101
Oct 1−$2,061−$1,493−$1,514−$1,101
Oct 2−$2,123−$1,566−$1,512−$1,104
Oct 3−$2,128−$1,568−$1,550−$1,174
Oct 4−$2,186−$1,625−$1,601−$1,181
Oct 5−$2,227−$1,662−$1,617−$1,195
Oct 6−$2,228−$1,662−$1,617−$1,195
Oct 7−$2,514−$1,875−$1,646−$1,245
Oct 8−$2,774−$2,011−$1,656−$1,250
Oct 9−$2,780−$2,018−$1,656−$1,250
Oct 10−$2,780−$2,018−$1,656−$1,250
Oct 11−$2,798−$2,036−$1,673−$1,268
Oct 12−$2,805−$2,041−$1,673−$1,268
Oct 13−$2,828−$2,045−$1,673−$1,268
Oct 14−$3,013−$2,221−$1,851−$1,370
Oct 15−$3,015−$2,223−$1,851−$1,370
Oct 16−$3,073−$2,279−$1,872−$1,428
Oct 17−$3,056−$2,269−$1,872−$1,428
Oct 18−$455.00+$335.45+$743.56+$531.47
Oct 19−$501.11+$292.31+$718.47+$509.21
Oct 20−$512.11+$334.82+$699.58+$830.70
Oct 21+$85.77+$938.78+$1,522+$1,921
Oct 22+$452.74+$1,306+$1,892+$2,077
Oct 23+$5,450+$6,732+$8,079+$8,478
Oct 24+$5,450+$6,732+$8,079+$8,478
Oct 25+$5,448+$6,730+$8,078+$8,477

Every delay side by side

DelayFollower PnLKeptFilled
0 min+$5,448n/a (The leader lost money at this size, so there were no returns to keep)12%
1 min+$6,730n/a (The leader lost money at this size, so there were no returns to keep)10%
5 min (selected)+$8,078n/a (The leader lost money at this size, so there were no returns to keep)7%
30 min+$8,477n/a (The leader lost money at this size, so there were no returns to keep)6%

Where the returns go

  1. Leader PnL at your size−$948.78
  2. Delay helped+$9,181
  3. Slippage helped+$10.71
  4. Fees (buys $160.70 · sells $4.85)−$165.55
  5. Follower PnL+$8,078

Leader PnL is scaled to your per-trade size. Delay cost is the price move between the leader's fill and yours; slippage is walking the book to fill your size; fees use the 2026 fee schedule. Methodology.

By category

CategoryTradesFollower PnLROI
Politics550+$8,138+123%
Finance99−$2.58−6.5%
Economy75−$57.82−9.3%

Data version 12086 · computed Oct 26, 2026 · 546 unsettled positions marked at the last traded price.

Trades

Each leader buy and the copy we simulated at the selected delay. Open “Details” to see the market fills behind the copy price.

How fills are simulated: a copy can only fill against real taker buys of the same outcome within 10 minutes after the delay, so the headline numbers are conservative. Fill basis adds a second opinion: where no trade proved a fill, order-book or volume evidence may say the size was still fillable (an estimate, never in the headline). Methodology.

Filled whole order · Partial (NN%) part of it · No buyers nobody bought in the window — not counted · Data not in yet too recent to evaluate

Show
Order
Date Market Leader price Copy price Fill Fill basis Follower PnL Details
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More Politics traders

See the full Politics copyability board, read the methodology, or learn how slippage and fees eat into copied returns.

This is a simulation built from historical on-chain fills; it is not a record of real copy trades. Past results don't predict future results. Only the wallet address and its public Polymarket name are shown.