0x212f…7fd2 lost money; a simulated copy at a 5-minute delay lost $6,447
Provisional
A copier who mirrored 0x212f…7fd2's 148 buys across 12 markets with a 5-minute delay and $100 per trade would have ended at −$6,447. The leader lost $7,480 at the same size, so there were no returns to keep: the delay helped by +$1,187, slippage helped by +$7.93 and fees $160.82. In the backtest, this simulated copy would have tied up to $9,475 at once across 108 positions.
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Key numbers
The headline numbers only count what real trades in the 10 minutes after the delay prove. “Including estimates” also counts the unproven part of a buy when order-book or trading-volume evidence says it was fillable, at an estimated price. Treat it as an upper view, not a promise. 47 estimated: 10 high · 33 medium · 4 low · 1 thin How we estimate
Cumulative PnL across all copied positions
Final values: 0 min: −$7,518; 1 min: −$7,071; 5 min: −$6,447; 30 min: −$6,760. Max drawdown −$6,515 (5 min, Oct 14). Hover or use the arrow keys to read values.
Chart data by day
| Day (UTC) | 0 min | 1 min | 5 min | 30 min |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 22 | $0.00 | $0.00 | +$0.21 | +$1.70 |
| Sep 23 | $0.00 | $0.00 | +$0.21 | +$1.70 |
| Sep 24 | $0.00 | $0.00 | +$0.21 | +$1.70 |
| Sep 25 | $0.00 | $0.00 | +$0.21 | +$1.70 |
| Sep 26 | $0.00 | $0.00 | +$0.21 | +$1.70 |
| Sep 27 | $0.00 | $0.00 | +$0.21 | +$1.70 |
| Sep 28 | −$122.12 | −$75.38 | −$189.67 | −$177.19 |
| Sep 29 | −$122.12 | −$75.38 | −$189.67 | −$238.79 |
| Sep 30 | −$123.40 | −$76.62 | −$190.16 | −$239.87 |
| Oct 1 | −$123.40 | −$76.62 | −$190.16 | −$239.87 |
| Oct 2 | −$185.57 | −$135.83 | −$235.86 | −$270.50 |
| Oct 3 | −$185.57 | −$135.83 | −$235.86 | −$270.50 |
| Oct 4 | −$7,170 | −$6,816 | −$6,232 | −$6,323 |
| Oct 5 | −$7,170 | −$6,816 | −$6,232 | −$6,323 |
| Oct 6 | −$7,170 | −$6,816 | −$6,232 | −$6,323 |
| Oct 7 | −$7,170 | −$6,816 | −$6,232 | −$6,323 |
| Oct 8 | −$7,170 | −$6,816 | −$6,232 | −$6,323 |
| Oct 9 | −$7,170 | −$6,816 | −$6,232 | −$6,323 |
| Oct 10 | −$7,170 | −$6,816 | −$6,232 | −$6,323 |
| Oct 11 | −$7,170 | −$6,816 | −$6,232 | −$6,323 |
| Oct 12 | −$7,170 | −$6,816 | −$6,232 | −$6,323 |
| Oct 13 | −$7,176 | −$6,834 | −$6,263 | −$6,323 |
| Oct 14 | −$7,544 | −$7,119 | −$6,515 | −$6,817 |
| Oct 15 | −$7,544 | −$7,119 | −$6,515 | −$6,817 |
| Oct 16 | −$7,544 | −$7,119 | −$6,515 | −$6,817 |
| Oct 17 | −$7,544 | −$7,119 | −$6,515 | −$6,817 |
| Oct 18 | −$7,544 | −$7,119 | −$6,515 | −$6,817 |
| Oct 19 | −$7,544 | −$7,119 | −$6,515 | −$6,817 |
| Oct 20 | −$7,544 | −$7,119 | −$6,515 | −$6,817 |
| Oct 21 | −$7,544 | −$7,119 | −$6,515 | −$6,817 |
| Oct 22 | −$7,544 | −$7,119 | −$6,515 | −$6,817 |
| Oct 23 | −$7,544 | −$7,119 | −$6,515 | −$6,817 |
| Oct 24 | −$7,544 | −$7,119 | −$6,515 | −$6,817 |
| Oct 25 | −$7,518 | −$7,071 | −$6,447 | −$6,760 |
Every delay side by side
| Delay | Follower PnL | Kept | Filled |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 min | −$7,518 | n/a (The leader lost money at this size, so there were no returns to keep) | 66% |
| 1 min | −$7,071 | n/a (The leader lost money at this size, so there were no returns to keep) | 66% |
| 5 min (selected) | −$6,447 | n/a (The leader lost money at this size, so there were no returns to keep) | 68% |
| 30 min | −$6,760 | n/a (The leader lost money at this size, so there were no returns to keep) | 69% |
Where the returns go
- Leader PnL at your size−$7,480
- Delay helped+$1,187
- Slippage helped+$7.93
- Fees (buys $64.35 · sells $96.47)−$160.82
- Follower PnL−$6,447
Leader PnL is scaled to your per-trade size. Delay cost is the price move between the leader's fill and yours; slippage is walking the book to fill your size; fees use the 2026 fee schedule. Methodology.
By category
| Category | Trades | Follower PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Politics | 148 | −$6,447 | −64.0% |
Trades
Each leader buy and the copy we simulated at the selected delay. Open “Details” to see the market fills behind the copy price.
How fills are simulated: a copy can only fill against real taker buys of the same outcome within 10 minutes after the delay, so the headline numbers are conservative. Fill basis adds a second opinion: where no trade proved a fill, order-book or volume evidence may say the size was still fillable (an estimate, never in the headline). Methodology.
Filled whole order · Partial (NN%) part of it · No buyers nobody bought in the window — not counted · Data not in yet too recent to evaluate
| Date | Market | Leader price | Copy price | Fill | Fill basis | Follower PnL | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trades load from the live API when this section is visible. | |||||||
More Politics traders
- 0x55b4…80eaBeat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0x24c8…23e1Beat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0x614d…1546Beat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0x22e4…ef1cLeader lost money at this size
- 0x2a01…6397Keeps 16% at a 5-minute delay
- 0xc658…b784Leader lost money at this size
See the full Politics copyability board, read the methodology, or learn how slippage and fees eat into copied returns.
This is a simulation built from historical on-chain fills; it is not a record of real copy trades. Past results don't predict future results. Only the wallet address and its public Polymarket name are shown.