In backtest, only 25% of 0x23d8…0288's buys could be fully copied at a 5-minute delay
Provisional
Only 25% of this trader's buys could be fully copied at a 5-minute delay, and another 10% only partly; the +$89,536 comes from the part you could copy. A copier who mirrored 0x23d8…0288's 2,063 buys across 101 markets with a 5-minute delay and $100 per trade would have kept 88% of the leader's returns: +$89,536 against +$101,403 for the leader at the same size. In this backtest, most of the edge survived the delay, and 25% of buys could be filled within 10 minutes. The remaining gap is delay cost $10,683, slippage helped by +$14.40 and fees $1,198. In the backtest, this simulated copy would have tied up to $39,112 at once across 724 positions.
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Key numbers
The headline numbers only count what real trades in the 10 minutes after the delay prove. “Including estimates” also counts the unproven part of a buy when order-book or trading-volume evidence says it was fillable, at an estimated price. Treat it as an upper view, not a promise. 981 estimated: 402 high · 404 medium · 175 low · 537 thin How we estimate
Cumulative PnL across all copied positions
Final values: 0 min: +$103,884; 1 min: +$102,019; 5 min: +$89,536; 30 min: +$86,089. Max drawdown −$764.46 (5 min, Sep 24). Hover or use the arrow keys to read values.
Chart data by day
| Day (UTC) | 0 min | 1 min | 5 min | 30 min |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 21 | −$228.68 | −$221.94 | −$47.84 | −$195.97 |
| Sep 22 | −$767.09 | −$662.18 | −$436.29 | −$435.27 |
| Sep 23 | −$849.74 | −$718.18 | −$450.74 | −$423.59 |
| Sep 24 | −$556.06 | −$456.06 | −$658.35 | −$519.68 |
| Sep 25 | −$610.64 | −$510.77 | −$477.84 | −$5.97 |
| Sep 26 | −$599.93 | −$501.16 | −$457.74 | −$5.66 |
| Sep 27 | −$103.67 | −$72.40 | −$59.50 | +$47.15 |
| Sep 28 | +$376.15 | +$377.81 | +$305.73 | +$649.11 |
| Sep 29 | +$815.05 | +$467.46 | +$328.97 | +$942.20 |
| Sep 30 | +$1,080 | +$727.02 | +$598.13 | +$1,239 |
| Oct 1 | +$1,457 | +$1,163 | +$1,084 | +$1,262 |
| Oct 2 | +$4,709 | +$2,535 | +$1,705 | +$2,792 |
| Oct 3 | +$4,719 | +$2,530 | +$1,731 | +$2,800 |
| Oct 4 | +$5,462 | +$3,068 | +$2,113 | +$3,025 |
| Oct 5 | +$14,932 | +$15,459 | +$14,219 | +$13,122 |
| Oct 6 | +$15,532 | +$16,369 | +$15,087 | +$13,397 |
| Oct 7 | +$18,567 | +$19,235 | +$17,895 | +$15,168 |
| Oct 8 | +$19,097 | +$19,750 | +$18,420 | +$15,719 |
| Oct 9 | +$20,705 | +$21,279 | +$19,962 | +$18,931 |
| Oct 10 | +$20,705 | +$21,279 | +$19,962 | +$18,931 |
| Oct 11 | +$22,753 | +$23,379 | +$22,216 | +$21,047 |
| Oct 12 | +$22,768 | +$23,384 | +$22,222 | +$21,048 |
| Oct 13 | +$31,571 | +$31,322 | +$27,231 | +$32,115 |
| Oct 14 | +$31,855 | +$31,597 | +$27,231 | +$32,115 |
| Oct 15 | +$31,954 | +$31,676 | +$27,231 | +$32,115 |
| Oct 16 | +$32,531 | +$31,899 | +$27,283 | +$32,575 |
| Oct 17 | +$33,589 | +$32,939 | +$28,152 | +$32,682 |
| Oct 18 | +$38,255 | +$37,419 | +$31,012 | +$38,014 |
| Oct 19 | +$38,448 | +$37,433 | +$31,013 | +$38,034 |
| Oct 20 | +$41,430 | +$40,020 | +$34,319 | +$38,626 |
| Oct 21 | +$41,389 | +$39,979 | +$34,285 | +$38,626 |
| Oct 22 | +$41,190 | +$39,786 | +$34,261 | +$38,617 |
| Oct 23 | +$41,184 | +$39,744 | +$34,237 | +$38,571 |
| Oct 24 | +$41,968 | +$40,629 | +$35,126 | +$39,640 |
| Oct 25 | +$103,884 | +$102,019 | +$89,536 | +$86,089 |
Every delay side by side
| Delay | Follower PnL | Kept | Filled |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 min | +$103,884 | 100%+ (Exactly 102.5%: the simulated copy did better than the leader) | 31% |
| 1 min | +$102,019 | 100%+ (Exactly 100.6%: the simulated copy did better than the leader) | 29% |
| 5 min (selected) | +$89,536 | 88.3% | 25% |
| 30 min | +$86,089 | 84.9% | 24% |
Where the returns go
- Leader PnL at your size+$101,403
- Delay cost−$10,683
- Slippage helped+$14.40
- Fees (buys $1,177 · sells $21.71)−$1,198
- Follower PnL+$89,536
Leader PnL is scaled to your per-trade size. Delay cost is the price move between the leader's fill and yours; slippage is walking the book to fill your size; fees use the 2026 fee schedule. Methodology.
By category
| Category | Trades | Follower PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Politics | 1,845 | +$82,703 | +161% |
| Sports | 148 | +$6,816 | +134% |
| Culture | 68 | +$16.91 | +20.5% |
| Tech | 2 | $0.00 | 0.0% |
Trades
Each leader buy and the copy we simulated at the selected delay. Open “Details” to see the market fills behind the copy price.
How fills are simulated: a copy can only fill against real taker buys of the same outcome within 10 minutes after the delay, so the headline numbers are conservative. Fill basis adds a second opinion: where no trade proved a fill, order-book or volume evidence may say the size was still fillable (an estimate, never in the headline). Methodology.
Filled whole order · Partial (NN%) part of it · No buyers nobody bought in the window — not counted · Data not in yet too recent to evaluate
| Date | Market | Leader price | Copy price | Fill | Fill basis | Follower PnL | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trades load from the live API when this section is visible. | |||||||
More Politics traders
- 0x55b4…80eaBeat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0x24c8…23e1Beat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0x614d…1546Beat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0xf937…53a1Beat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0xd8d5…8935Keeps 82% at a 5-minute delay
- 0x0869…14f1Keeps 78% at a 5-minute delay
See the full Politics copyability board, read the methodology, or learn how slippage and fees eat into copied returns.
This is a simulation built from historical on-chain fills; it is not a record of real copy trades. Past results don't predict future results. Only the wallet address and its public Polymarket name are shown.