In backtest, only 20% of 0xd8d5…8935's buys could be fully copied at a 5-minute delay
ProvisionalIncludes trades from the last ~40 minutes, so these results may still change. Computed Oct 26, 2026, 02:01 UTC.
Only 20% of this trader's buys could be fully copied at a 5-minute delay, and another 10% only partly; the +$10,796 comes from the part you could copy. A copier who mirrored 0xd8d5…8935's 3,146 buys across 674 markets with a 5-minute delay and $100 per trade would have kept 82% of the leader's returns: +$10,796 against +$13,213 for the leader at the same size. In this backtest, most of the edge survived the delay, and 20% of buys could be filled within 10 minutes. The remaining gap is delay cost $963.19, slippage $451.20 and fees $1,002. In the backtest, this simulated copy would have tied up to $31,940 at once across 933 positions.
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Key numbers
The headline numbers only count what real trades in the 10 minutes after the delay prove. “Including estimates” also counts the unproven part of a buy when order-book or trading-volume evidence says it was fillable, at an estimated price. Treat it as an upper view, not a promise. 1,619 estimated: 561 high · 646 medium · 412 low · 864 thin How we estimate
Cumulative PnL across all copied positions
Final values: 0 min: +$11,914; 1 min: +$11,703; 5 min: +$10,796; 30 min: +$9,630. Max drawdown −$1,346 (5 min, Oct 25). Hover or use the arrow keys to read values.
Chart data by day
| Day (UTC) | 0 min | 1 min | 5 min | 30 min |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 21 | +$562.27 | +$567.86 | +$279.19 | +$816.52 |
| Sep 22 | +$748.85 | +$769.44 | +$381.71 | +$1,442 |
| Sep 23 | +$274.27 | +$512.06 | +$190.35 | +$1,306 |
| Sep 24 | +$440.29 | +$717.67 | +$462.76 | +$1,326 |
| Sep 25 | +$442.28 | +$681.71 | +$519.72 | +$1,129 |
| Sep 26 | +$613.51 | +$857.90 | +$672.35 | +$1,760 |
| Sep 27 | +$780.51 | +$985.86 | +$688.90 | +$1,799 |
| Sep 28 | +$722.79 | +$926.89 | +$542.12 | +$1,885 |
| Sep 29 | +$659.80 | +$936.65 | +$637.22 | +$2,221 |
| Sep 30 | +$678.46 | +$955.74 | +$641.68 | +$2,388 |
| Oct 1 | +$1,217 | +$1,189 | +$836.62 | +$2,351 |
| Oct 2 | +$1,276 | +$1,265 | +$923.29 | +$2,335 |
| Oct 3 | +$1,825 | +$1,931 | +$1,181 | +$2,589 |
| Oct 4 | +$2,276 | +$2,389 | +$1,725 | +$2,963 |
| Oct 5 | +$2,150 | +$2,294 | +$1,844 | +$2,938 |
| Oct 6 | +$2,314 | +$2,474 | +$2,075 | +$3,201 |
| Oct 7 | +$2,386 | +$2,552 | +$2,150 | +$3,225 |
| Oct 8 | +$2,490 | +$2,608 | +$2,428 | +$3,138 |
| Oct 9 | +$2,945 | +$3,039 | +$2,834 | +$3,266 |
| Oct 10 | +$2,951 | +$3,043 | +$2,847 | +$3,266 |
| Oct 11 | +$3,147 | +$3,243 | +$2,869 | +$3,270 |
| Oct 12 | +$3,142 | +$3,241 | +$2,866 | +$3,187 |
| Oct 13 | +$3,761 | +$3,864 | +$3,483 | +$3,181 |
| Oct 14 | +$3,667 | +$3,763 | +$3,416 | +$2,845 |
| Oct 15 | +$3,544 | +$3,683 | +$3,257 | +$2,639 |
| Oct 16 | +$3,556 | +$3,694 | +$3,275 | +$2,661 |
| Oct 17 | +$3,572 | +$3,702 | +$3,273 | +$2,666 |
| Oct 18 | +$3,595 | +$3,702 | +$3,274 | +$2,697 |
| Oct 19 | +$3,585 | +$3,697 | +$3,273 | +$2,702 |
| Oct 20 | +$3,745 | +$3,857 | +$3,543 | +$2,629 |
| Oct 21 | +$3,742 | +$3,806 | +$3,570 | +$2,669 |
| Oct 22 | +$3,689 | +$3,729 | +$3,712 | +$2,626 |
| Oct 23 | +$3,622 | +$3,545 | +$3,458 | +$2,638 |
| Oct 24 | +$3,910 | +$3,657 | +$3,444 | +$6,623 |
| Oct 25 | +$11,858 | +$11,649 | +$10,761 | +$9,631 |
| Oct 26 | +$11,914 | +$11,703 | +$10,796 | +$9,630 |
Every delay side by side
| Delay | Follower PnL | Kept | Filled |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 min | +$11,914 | 90.2% | 22% |
| 1 min | +$11,703 | 88.6% | 20% |
| 5 min (selected) | +$10,796 | 81.7% | 20% |
| 30 min | +$9,630 | 72.9% | 19% |
Where the returns go
- Leader PnL at your size+$13,213
- Delay cost−$963.19
- Slippage−$451.20
- Fees (buys $738.85 · sells $263.58)−$1,002
- Follower PnL+$10,796
Leader PnL is scaled to your per-trade size. Delay cost is the price move between the leader's fill and yours; slippage is walking the book to fill your size; fees use the 2026 fee schedule. Methodology.
By category
| Category | Trades | Follower PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Politics | 2,478 | +$10,005 | +16.7% |
| Tech | 184 | +$161.87 | +6.0% |
| Finance | 148 | +$230.54 | +16.7% |
| Geopolitics | 132 | +$305.20 | +7.6% |
| Culture | 90 | +$171.14 | +13.1% |
| Economy | 49 | −$11.98 | −5.4% |
| Crypto | 43 | −$18.51 | −24.0% |
| Sports | 20 | +$19.06 | +3.0% |
| Weather | 2 | −$65.74 | −102% |
Trades
Each leader buy and the copy we simulated at the selected delay. Open “Details” to see the market fills behind the copy price.
How fills are simulated: a copy can only fill against real taker buys of the same outcome within 10 minutes after the delay, so the headline numbers are conservative. Fill basis adds a second opinion: where no trade proved a fill, order-book or volume evidence may say the size was still fillable (an estimate, never in the headline). Methodology.
Filled whole order · Partial (NN%) part of it · No buyers nobody bought in the window — not counted · Data not in yet too recent to evaluate
| Date | Market | Leader price | Copy price | Fill | Fill basis | Follower PnL | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trades load from the live API when this section is visible. | |||||||
More Politics traders
- 0x55b4…80eaBeat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0x24c8…23e1Beat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0x614d…1546Beat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0x0869…14f1Keeps 78% at a 5-minute delay
- 0x35bb…009bKeeps 77% at a 5-minute delay
- 0xdf17…97d1Keeps 77% at a 5-minute delay
See the full Politics copyability board, read the methodology, or learn how slippage and fees eat into copied returns.
This is a simulation built from historical on-chain fills; it is not a record of real copy trades. Past results don't predict future results. Only the wallet address and its public Polymarket name are shown.