In backtest, only 32% of 0xc301…66aa's buys could be fully copied at a 5-minute delay
Provisional2 buys are too recent to evaluate at this delay: the market data after them isn't indexed yet, so they're left out of these numbers. Computed Oct 26, 2026, 02:42 UTC.
Only 32% of this trader's buys could be fully copied at a 5-minute delay, and another 12% only partly; the +$84,478 comes from the part you could copy. A copier who mirrored 0xc301…66aa's 3,969 buys across 168 markets with a 5-minute delay and $100 per trade would have made +$84,478 — more than the leader's +$66,701 at the same size, so the copier kept all of the leader's returns and more (126.7%). That happens when prices keep moving the leader's way after they buy and a later entry ends up cheaper: the delay helped by +$20,373, slippage $7.19 and fees $2,588. A small sample can flip this, so compare the other delays and the trades below. In the backtest, this simulated copy would have tied up to $134,886 at once across 1,728 positions.
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Key numbers
The headline numbers only count what real trades in the 10 minutes after the delay prove. “Including estimates” also counts the unproven part of a buy when order-book or trading-volume evidence says it was fillable, at an estimated price. Treat it as an upper view, not a promise. 2,173 estimated: 1,604 high · 315 medium · 254 low · 503 thin How we estimate
Cumulative PnL across all copied positions
Final values: 0 min: +$85,704; 1 min: +$82,923; 5 min: +$84,478; 30 min: +$73,389. Max drawdown −$5,007 (5 min, Oct 23). Hover or use the arrow keys to read values.
Chart data by day
| Day (UTC) | 0 min | 1 min | 5 min | 30 min |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16 | −$160.90 | −$166.86 | −$114.66 | −$72.42 |
| Oct 17 | −$822.06 | −$662.24 | −$521.44 | −$891.15 |
| Oct 18 | −$1,825 | −$1,416 | −$725.16 | −$1,237 |
| Oct 19 | −$4,968 | −$4,601 | −$4,049 | −$4,689 |
| Oct 20 | −$1,500 | −$1,355 | −$731.02 | −$2,052 |
| Oct 21 | −$1,922 | −$1,986 | +$157.81 | −$1,087 |
| Oct 22 | −$4,815 | −$4,819 | −$2,515 | −$3,487 |
| Oct 23 | −$5,147 | −$5,587 | −$1,289 | −$2,615 |
| Oct 24 | +$17,967 | +$15,377 | +$19,672 | +$18,531 |
| Oct 25 | +$85,757 | +$82,974 | +$84,519 | +$73,394 |
| Oct 26 | +$85,704 | +$82,923 | +$84,478 | +$73,389 |
Every delay side by side
| Delay | Follower PnL | Kept | Filled |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 min | +$85,704 | 100%+ (Exactly 128.5%: the simulated copy did better than the leader) | 36% |
| 1 min | +$82,923 | 100%+ (Exactly 124.3%: the simulated copy did better than the leader) | 34% |
| 5 min (selected) | +$84,478 | 100%+ (Exactly 126.7%: the simulated copy did better than the leader) | 32% |
| 30 min | +$73,389 | 100%+ (Exactly 110.0%: the simulated copy did better than the leader) | 32% |
Where the returns go
- Leader PnL at your size+$66,701
- Delay helped+$20,373
- Slippage−$7.19
- Fees (buys $2,556 · sells $32.20)−$2,588
- Follower PnL+$84,478
Leader PnL is scaled to your per-trade size. Delay cost is the price move between the leader's fill and yours; slippage is walking the book to fill your size; fees use the 2026 fee schedule. Methodology.
By category
| Category | Trades | Follower PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Politics | 3,954 | +$84,478 | +60.5% |
| Culture | 12 | $0.00 | 0.0% |
| Tech | 1 | $0.00 | 0.0% |
Trades
Each leader buy and the copy we simulated at the selected delay. Open “Details” to see the market fills behind the copy price.
How fills are simulated: a copy can only fill against real taker buys of the same outcome within 10 minutes after the delay, so the headline numbers are conservative. Fill basis adds a second opinion: where no trade proved a fill, order-book or volume evidence may say the size was still fillable (an estimate, never in the headline). Methodology.
Filled whole order · Partial (NN%) part of it · No buyers nobody bought in the window — not counted · Data not in yet too recent to evaluate
| Date | Market | Leader price | Copy price | Fill | Fill basis | Follower PnL | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trades load from the live API when this section is visible. | |||||||
More Politics traders
- 0x55b4…80eaBeat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0x24c8…23e1Beat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0x614d…1546Beat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0xe234…304aBeat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0xff1e…5e2dBeat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0x77c3…00c8Beat the leader at a 5-minute delay
See the full Politics copyability board, read the methodology, or learn how slippage and fees eat into copied returns.
This is a simulation built from historical on-chain fills; it is not a record of real copy trades. Past results don't predict future results. Only the wallet address and its public Polymarket name are shown.