In backtest, only 27% of 0xff1e…5e2d's buys could be fully copied at a 5-minute delay
Provisional
Only 27% of this trader's buys could be fully copied at a 5-minute delay, and another 9% only partly; the +$1,849 comes from the part you could copy. A copier who mirrored 0xff1e…5e2d's 1,013 buys across 247 markets with a 5-minute delay and $100 per trade would have made +$1,849 — more than the leader's +$1,413 at the same size, so the copier kept all of the leader's returns and more (130.9%). That happens when prices keep moving the leader's way after they buy and a later entry ends up cheaper: the delay helped by +$699.71, slippage $24.37 and fees $238.84. A small sample can flip this, so compare the other delays and the trades below. In the backtest, this simulated copy would have tied up to $18,012 at once across 370 positions.
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Key numbers
The headline numbers only count what real trades in the 10 minutes after the delay prove. “Including estimates” also counts the unproven part of a buy when order-book or trading-volume evidence says it was fillable, at an estimated price. Treat it as an upper view, not a promise. 654 estimated: 127 high · 428 medium · 99 low · 83 thin How we estimate
Cumulative PnL across all copied positions
Final values: 0 min: +$1,345; 1 min: +$1,664; 5 min: +$1,849; 30 min: +$809.67. Max drawdown −$1,130 (5 min, Oct 25). Hover or use the arrow keys to read values.
Chart data by day
| Day (UTC) | 0 min | 1 min | 5 min | 30 min |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 21 | −$45.31 | +$9.13 | +$21.21 | +$6.99 |
| Sep 22 | −$37.42 | +$16.52 | +$13.54 | +$20.92 |
| Sep 23 | −$16.41 | +$35.08 | +$31.35 | +$38.24 |
| Sep 24 | −$23.55 | +$27.54 | +$23.82 | +$38.24 |
| Sep 25 | −$21.14 | +$30.06 | +$25.22 | +$42.37 |
| Sep 26 | −$27.13 | +$26.21 | +$20.92 | +$36.97 |
| Sep 27 | −$27.09 | +$26.21 | +$20.92 | +$36.97 |
| Sep 28 | −$44.40 | +$12.98 | +$33.56 | +$28.04 |
| Sep 29 | −$87.42 | −$94.92 | −$83.68 | +$129.36 |
| Sep 30 | −$122.93 | −$130.59 | −$109.61 | +$130.38 |
| Oct 1 | −$121.48 | −$130.02 | −$109.56 | +$132.59 |
| Oct 2 | −$113.30 | −$122.60 | −$120.56 | +$127.68 |
| Oct 3 | −$9.52 | −$19.20 | −$1.81 | +$241.17 |
| Oct 4 | −$64.68 | −$8.58 | +$5.65 | +$252.34 |
| Oct 5 | −$63.54 | −$3.01 | +$8.27 | +$253.69 |
| Oct 6 | −$73.61 | +$12.29 | +$19.35 | +$253.69 |
| Oct 7 | −$50.94 | +$26.48 | +$32.57 | +$264.40 |
| Oct 8 | −$34.06 | +$27.25 | +$32.57 | +$269.74 |
| Oct 9 | +$703.99 | +$708.84 | +$701.97 | +$848.12 |
| Oct 10 | +$703.99 | +$708.84 | +$701.97 | +$848.12 |
| Oct 11 | +$697.65 | +$699.66 | +$688.35 | +$841.27 |
| Oct 12 | +$690.17 | +$692.64 | +$683.77 | +$832.42 |
| Oct 13 | +$688.69 | +$691.16 | +$682.29 | +$830.94 |
| Oct 14 | +$502.50 | +$689.70 | +$581.99 | +$730.61 |
| Oct 15 | +$502.50 | +$689.70 | +$581.99 | +$730.61 |
| Oct 16 | +$314.05 | +$699.68 | +$539.77 | +$556.90 |
| Oct 17 | +$314.05 | +$699.68 | +$539.77 | +$556.90 |
| Oct 18 | +$314.05 | +$699.68 | +$539.77 | +$556.90 |
| Oct 19 | +$795.13 | +$1,195 | +$945.82 | +$936.07 |
| Oct 20 | +$859.31 | +$1,257 | +$997.79 | +$1,008 |
| Oct 21 | +$937.40 | +$1,336 | +$1,106 | +$1,155 |
| Oct 22 | +$519.41 | +$919.54 | +$707.58 | +$858.80 |
| Oct 23 | +$602.25 | +$946.17 | +$738.89 | +$858.56 |
| Oct 24 | +$602.25 | +$946.17 | +$738.89 | +$858.56 |
| Oct 25 | +$1,309 | +$1,631 | +$1,830 | +$806.47 |
| Oct 26 | +$1,345 | +$1,664 | +$1,849 | +$809.67 |
Every delay side by side
| Delay | Follower PnL | Kept | Filled |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 min | +$1,345 | 95.2% | 31% |
| 1 min | +$1,664 | 100%+ (Exactly 117.8%: the simulated copy did better than the leader) | 29% |
| 5 min (selected) | +$1,849 | 100%+ (Exactly 130.9%: the simulated copy did better than the leader) | 27% |
| 30 min | +$809.67 | 57.3% | 29% |
Where the returns go
- Leader PnL at your size+$1,413
- Delay helped+$699.71
- Slippage−$24.37
- Fees (buys $206.75 · sells $32.09)−$238.84
- Follower PnL+$1,849
Leader PnL is scaled to your per-trade size. Delay cost is the price move between the leader's fill and yours; slippage is walking the book to fill your size; fees use the 2026 fee schedule. Methodology.
By category
| Category | Trades | Follower PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Politics | 826 | +$1,828 | +6.7% |
| Geopolitics | 95 | +$15.61 | +0.9% |
| Crypto | 40 | $0.00 | 0.0% |
| Tech | 27 | −$2.82 | −0.3% |
| Culture | 10 | $0.00 | 0.0% |
| Economy | 6 | +$8.39 | +2.6% |
| Sports | 6 | $0.00 | 0.0% |
| Finance | 2 | $0.00 | 0.0% |
| Weather | 1 | $0.00 | 0.0% |
Trades
Each leader buy and the copy we simulated at the selected delay. Open “Details” to see the market fills behind the copy price.
How fills are simulated: a copy can only fill against real taker buys of the same outcome within 10 minutes after the delay, so the headline numbers are conservative. Fill basis adds a second opinion: where no trade proved a fill, order-book or volume evidence may say the size was still fillable (an estimate, never in the headline). Methodology.
Filled whole order · Partial (NN%) part of it · No buyers nobody bought in the window — not counted · Data not in yet too recent to evaluate
| Date | Market | Leader price | Copy price | Fill | Fill basis | Follower PnL | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trades load from the live API when this section is visible. | |||||||
More Politics traders
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See the full Politics copyability board, read the methodology, or learn how slippage and fees eat into copied returns.
This is a simulation built from historical on-chain fills; it is not a record of real copy trades. Past results don't predict future results. Only the wallet address and its public Polymarket name are shown.