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In backtest, only 27% of 0xe234…304a's buys could be fully copied at a 5-minute delay

Politics 0xe234959595e01dacd391a9502a6ad0edf4e3304a Profile on Polymarket

ProvisionalIncludes trades from the last ~40 minutes, so these results may still change. Computed Oct 26, 2026, 02:11 UTC.

Only 27% of this trader's buys could be fully copied at a 5-minute delay, and another 13% only partly; the +$3,611 comes from the part you could copy. A copier who mirrored 0xe234…304a's 2,639 buys across 210 markets with a 5-minute delay and $100 per trade would have made +$3,611 — more than the leader's +$1,580 at the same size, so the copier kept all of the leader's returns and more (228.6%). That happens when prices keep moving the leader's way after they buy and a later entry ends up cheaper: the delay helped by +$5,129, slippage $849.72 and fees $2,248. A small sample can flip this, so compare the other delays and the trades below. In the backtest, this simulated copy would have tied up to $36,022 at once across 1,042 positions.

Copy delay

Each time the trader buys, the simulation copies this much. Not a total budget.

Key numbers

Follower PnL
+$3,611
Incl. estimates +$11,947
Max drawdown −$4,079
ROI +4.6% on total cost
Returns kept
100%+ (Exactly 228.6%: the simulated copy did better than the leader)
Leader, same size +$1,580
beat the leader · 228.6%
Peak capital in use
$36,022
Incl. estimates $116,613
2,639 copied buys · $78,379 total cost
Fill rate
27%
Most buys couldn't be fully copied
Incl. estimates 69%
707 filled · 335 partial · 1,597 no buyers
Backtest score
82/100
2,639 buys · 210 markets

The headline numbers only count what real trades in the 10 minutes after the delay prove. “Including estimates” also counts the unproven part of a buy when order-book or trading-volume evidence says it was fillable, at an estimated price. Treat it as an upper view, not a promise. 1,349 estimated: 638 high · 548 medium · 163 low · 533 thin How we estimate

Cumulative PnL across all copied positions

X axis
Max drawdown −$4.1k

Final values: 0 min: +$1,646; 1 min: +$2,179; 5 min: +$3,611; 30 min: +$896.25. Max drawdown −$4,079 (5 min, Oct 24). Hover or use the arrow keys to read values.

Chart data by day
Day (UTC)0 min1 min5 min30 min
Sep 21−$113.55−$105.53−$55.10−$45.98
Sep 22−$959.92−$904.27−$676.60−$320.65
Sep 23−$1,135−$1,043−$827.72−$477.61
Sep 24−$1,101−$996.61−$839.85−$530.91
Sep 25−$1,223−$1,107−$949.67−$633.03
Sep 26−$1,662−$1,376−$1,137−$751.33
Sep 27−$1,662−$1,376−$1,137−$751.33
Sep 28−$1,424−$1,139−$1,013−$129.46
Sep 29−$1,481−$1,077−$989.26−$353.79
Sep 30−$1,920−$1,623−$1,516−$1,007
Oct 1−$1,717−$1,487−$1,571−$734.98
Oct 2−$2,029−$1,669−$1,614−$709.32
Oct 3−$1,223−$791.23−$870.84−$210.52
Oct 4+$1,640+$1,737+$1,583+$2,200
Oct 5+$1,573+$1,668+$1,521+$2,182
Oct 6+$1,376+$1,475+$1,429+$2,071
Oct 7+$858.24+$951.15+$890.11+$1,890
Oct 8+$785.30+$913.03+$874.26+$1,851
Oct 9−$522.91−$322.65+$399.05+$1,309
Oct 10−$161.08+$113.39+$952.70+$1,262
Oct 11−$537.47−$213.12+$640.48+$1,220
Oct 12−$810.50−$411.28+$1,125+$1,101
Oct 13−$810.50−$411.28+$1,125+$1,101
Oct 14−$921.87−$410.56+$1,099+$947.29
Oct 15−$921.87−$410.56+$1,099+$947.29
Oct 16−$1,038−$1,332+$539.32+$356.62
Oct 17−$242.15−$366.41+$2,134−$69.72
Oct 18+$1,617+$560.77+$2,035+$53.34
Oct 19+$1,009+$15.25+$1,512−$658.45
Oct 20+$501.62−$386.94+$1,070−$878.20
Oct 21+$3,669+$3,912+$4,436+$1,049
Oct 22+$3,795+$4,198+$4,756+$1,217
Oct 23+$2,652+$3,078+$3,652+$778.24
Oct 24+$1,844+$2,429+$2,950−$494.39
Oct 25+$1,646+$2,179+$3,611+$896.25

Every delay side by side

DelayFollower PnLKeptFilled
0 min+$1,646100%+ (Exactly 104.3%: the simulated copy did better than the leader)31%
1 min+$2,179100%+ (Exactly 138.0%: the simulated copy did better than the leader)29%
5 min (selected)+$3,611100%+ (Exactly 228.6%: the simulated copy did better than the leader)27%
30 min+$896.2556.7%22%

Where the returns go

  1. Leader PnL at your size+$1,580
  2. Delay helped+$5,129
  3. Slippage−$849.72
  4. Fees (buys $1,696 · sells $552.54)−$2,248
  5. Follower PnL+$3,611

Leader PnL is scaled to your per-trade size. Delay cost is the price move between the leader's fill and yours; slippage is walking the book to fill your size; fees use the 2026 fee schedule. Methodology.

By category

CategoryTradesFollower PnLROI
Politics2,289+$4,861+8.0%
Sports178+$44.99+0.3%
Geopolitics74−$674.56−33.9%
Tech70−$570.34−24.1%
Finance28−$49.89−22.1%

Data version 12076 · computed Oct 26, 2026 · 1,261 unsettled positions marked at the last traded price.

Trades

Each leader buy and the copy we simulated at the selected delay. Open “Details” to see the market fills behind the copy price.

How fills are simulated: a copy can only fill against real taker buys of the same outcome within 10 minutes after the delay, so the headline numbers are conservative. Fill basis adds a second opinion: where no trade proved a fill, order-book or volume evidence may say the size was still fillable (an estimate, never in the headline). Methodology.

Filled whole order · Partial (NN%) part of it · No buyers nobody bought in the window — not counted · Data not in yet too recent to evaluate

Show
Order
Date Market Leader price Copy price Fill Fill basis Follower PnL Details
Trades load from the live API when this section is visible.
Page 1

More Politics traders

See the full Politics copyability board, read the methodology, or learn how slippage and fees eat into copied returns.

This is a simulation built from historical on-chain fills; it is not a record of real copy trades. Past results don't predict future results. Only the wallet address and its public Polymarket name are shown.