0x2798…0b7d lost money; a simulated copy at a 5-minute delay lost $6,431
Provisional
A copier who mirrored 0x2798…0b7d's 329 buys across 30 markets with a 5-minute delay and $100 per trade would have ended at −$6,431. The leader lost $7,026 at the same size, so there were no returns to keep: the delay helped by +$776.17, slippage $33.89 and fees $147.77. In the backtest, this simulated copy would have tied up to $9,127 at once across 266 positions.
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Key numbers
The headline numbers only count what real trades in the 10 minutes after the delay prove. “Including estimates” also counts the unproven part of a buy when order-book or trading-volume evidence says it was fillable, at an estimated price. Treat it as an upper view, not a promise. 84 estimated: 70 high · 14 medium · 0 low · 5 thin How we estimate
Cumulative PnL across all copied positions
Final values: 0 min: −$6,759; 1 min: −$7,497; 5 min: −$6,431; 30 min: −$5,991. Max drawdown −$6,434 (5 min, Oct 14). Hover or use the arrow keys to read values.
Chart data by day
| Day (UTC) | 0 min | 1 min | 5 min | 30 min |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11 | −$957.87 | −$940.35 | −$375.41 | +$101.68 |
| Oct 12 | −$1,130 | −$1,075 | −$502.76 | +$22.20 |
| Oct 13 | −$2,097 | −$2,531 | −$1,652 | −$282.91 |
| Oct 14 | −$6,759 | −$7,497 | −$6,431 | −$5,991 |
Every delay side by side
| Delay | Follower PnL | Kept | Filled |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 min | −$6,759 | n/a (The leader lost money at this size, so there were no returns to keep) | 77% |
| 1 min | −$7,497 | n/a (The leader lost money at this size, so there were no returns to keep) | 79% |
| 5 min (selected) | −$6,431 | n/a (The leader lost money at this size, so there were no returns to keep) | 73% |
| 30 min | −$5,991 | n/a (The leader lost money at this size, so there were no returns to keep) | 63% |
Where the returns go
- Leader PnL at your size−$7,026
- Delay helped+$776.17
- Slippage−$33.89
- Fees (buys $140.53 · sells $7.24)−$147.77
- Follower PnL−$6,431
Leader PnL is scaled to your per-trade size. Delay cost is the price move between the leader's fill and yours; slippage is walking the book to fill your size; fees use the 2026 fee schedule. Methodology.
By category
| Category | Trades | Follower PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 329 | −$6,431 | −26.0% |
Trades
Each leader buy and the copy we simulated at the selected delay. Open “Details” to see the market fills behind the copy price.
How fills are simulated: a copy can only fill against real taker buys of the same outcome within 10 minutes after the delay, so the headline numbers are conservative. Fill basis adds a second opinion: where no trade proved a fill, order-book or volume evidence may say the size was still fillable (an estimate, never in the headline). Methodology.
Filled whole order · Partial (NN%) part of it · No buyers nobody bought in the window — not counted · Data not in yet too recent to evaluate
| Date | Market | Leader price | Copy price | Fill | Fill basis | Follower PnL | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trades load from the live API when this section is visible. | |||||||
More Sports traders
- 0x74b7…8b0bBeat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0xf28e…cab2Beat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0x5dee…30b1Beat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0x31e5…4879Leader lost money at this size
- 0x67ac…edf1Leader lost money at this size
- 0x26b4…b8a9Leader lost money at this size
See the full Sports copyability board, read the methodology, or learn how slippage and fees eat into copied returns.
This is a simulation built from historical on-chain fills; it is not a record of real copy trades. Past results don't predict future results. Only the wallet address and its public Polymarket name are shown.