In backtest, only 40% of 0x33e2…3a1b's buys could be fully copied at a 5-minute delay
Provisional
Only 40% of this trader's buys could be fully copied at a 5-minute delay, and another 11% only partly; the +$4,527 comes from the part you could copy. A copier who mirrored 0x33e2…3a1b's 1,456 buys across 278 markets with a 5-minute delay and $100 per trade would have kept 53% of the leader's returns: +$4,527 against +$8,526 for the leader at the same size. In this backtest, most of the edge survived the delay, and 40% of buys could be filled within 10 minutes. The remaining gap is delay cost $2,765, slippage $279.70 and fees $953.97. In the backtest, this simulated copy would have tied up to $15,501 at once across 735 positions.
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Key numbers
The headline numbers only count what real trades in the 10 minutes after the delay prove. “Including estimates” also counts the unproven part of a buy when order-book or trading-volume evidence says it was fillable, at an estimated price. Treat it as an upper view, not a promise. 709 estimated: 232 high · 371 medium · 106 low · 150 thin How we estimate
Cumulative PnL across all copied positions
Final values: 0 min: +$6,858; 1 min: +$6,346; 5 min: +$4,527; 30 min: +$601.04. Max drawdown −$875.34 (5 min, Oct 4). Hover or use the arrow keys to read values.
Chart data by day
| Day (UTC) | 0 min | 1 min | 5 min | 30 min |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 21 | +$3.73 | +$1.21 | +$4.04 | +$1.42 |
| Sep 22 | −$148.61 | −$186.13 | −$212.42 | −$31.15 |
| Sep 23 | −$340.96 | −$404.00 | −$507.38 | −$174.43 |
| Sep 24 | −$314.21 | −$404.85 | −$565.76 | −$141.94 |
| Sep 25 | −$307.71 | −$397.75 | −$664.26 | −$141.45 |
| Sep 26 | −$307.71 | −$397.75 | −$664.26 | −$141.45 |
| Sep 27 | −$307.71 | −$397.75 | −$664.26 | −$141.45 |
| Sep 28 | −$307.53 | −$397.59 | −$664.09 | −$141.07 |
| Sep 29 | −$360.68 | −$467.83 | −$699.72 | −$212.25 |
| Sep 30 | −$313.84 | −$430.95 | −$644.66 | −$162.93 |
| Oct 1 | −$377.02 | −$530.41 | −$737.90 | −$199.23 |
| Oct 2 | −$384.04 | −$492.08 | −$710.42 | −$197.25 |
| Oct 3 | −$471.03 | −$581.23 | −$831.71 | −$228.85 |
| Oct 4 | −$502.45 | −$616.23 | −$816.07 | −$200.37 |
| Oct 5 | −$558.46 | −$668.91 | −$358.37 | −$284.26 |
| Oct 6 | −$431.81 | −$557.19 | −$463.48 | −$228.82 |
| Oct 7 | −$431.77 | −$552.31 | −$461.80 | −$220.94 |
| Oct 8 | −$14.61 | −$193.84 | −$381.71 | +$1,229 |
| Oct 9 | +$244.43 | +$72.92 | −$282.36 | +$1,379 |
| Oct 10 | +$260.21 | +$87.68 | −$285.95 | +$1,416 |
| Oct 11 | +$260.21 | +$87.68 | −$285.95 | +$1,416 |
| Oct 12 | +$223.42 | +$39.86 | −$397.23 | +$1,325 |
| Oct 13 | +$276.42 | +$121.26 | −$395.53 | +$1,353 |
| Oct 14 | +$199.22 | +$20.06 | −$459.94 | +$1,250 |
| Oct 15 | +$68.15 | −$84.85 | −$422.80 | +$1,254 |
| Oct 16 | +$5,318 | +$5,220 | +$4,294 | +$1,397 |
| Oct 17 | +$5,320 | +$5,221 | +$4,290 | +$1,403 |
| Oct 18 | +$5,320 | +$5,221 | +$4,290 | +$1,403 |
| Oct 19 | +$5,507 | +$5,381 | +$4,174 | +$1,440 |
| Oct 20 | +$5,373 | +$5,324 | +$4,197 | +$1,549 |
| Oct 21 | +$5,417 | +$5,396 | +$4,073 | +$1,121 |
| Oct 22 | +$5,884 | +$5,852 | +$4,610 | +$962.27 |
| Oct 23 | +$5,553 | +$5,535 | +$4,209 | +$730.95 |
| Oct 24 | +$5,556 | +$5,536 | +$4,203 | +$760.26 |
| Oct 25 | +$6,851 | +$6,343 | +$4,524 | +$601.52 |
| Oct 26 | +$6,858 | +$6,346 | +$4,527 | +$601.04 |
Every delay side by side
| Delay | Follower PnL | Kept | Filled |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 min | +$6,858 | 80.4% | 43% |
| 1 min | +$6,346 | 74.4% | 42% |
| 5 min (selected) | +$4,527 | 53.1% | 40% |
| 30 min | +$601.04 | 7.0% | 34% |
Where the returns go
- Leader PnL at your size+$8,526
- Delay cost−$2,765
- Slippage−$279.70
- Fees (buys $590.30 · sells $363.67)−$953.97
- Follower PnL+$4,527
Leader PnL is scaled to your per-trade size. Delay cost is the price move between the leader's fill and yours; slippage is walking the book to fill your size; fees use the 2026 fee schedule. Methodology.
By category
| Category | Trades | Follower PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Politics | 965 | +$78.43 | +0.2% |
| Sports | 154 | −$325.65 | −7.6% |
| Culture | 106 | −$31.05 | −2.8% |
| Geopolitics | 97 | +$242.94 | +5.4% |
| Tech | 90 | +$4,368 | +135% |
| Weather | 28 | +$256.47 | +46.5% |
| Finance | 8 | −$84.03 | −16.8% |
| Crypto | 6 | +$21.68 | +5.4% |
| Economy | 2 | $0.00 | 0.0% |
Trades
Each leader buy and the copy we simulated at the selected delay. Open “Details” to see the market fills behind the copy price.
How fills are simulated: a copy can only fill against real taker buys of the same outcome within 10 minutes after the delay, so the headline numbers are conservative. Fill basis adds a second opinion: where no trade proved a fill, order-book or volume evidence may say the size was still fillable (an estimate, never in the headline). Methodology.
Filled whole order · Partial (NN%) part of it · No buyers nobody bought in the window — not counted · Data not in yet too recent to evaluate
| Date | Market | Leader price | Copy price | Fill | Fill basis | Follower PnL | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trades load from the live API when this section is visible. | |||||||
More Politics traders
- 0x55b4…80eaBeat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0x24c8…23e1Beat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0x614d…1546Beat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0xbf96…9942Keeps 62% at a 5-minute delay
- 0xf67f…31cfKeeps 51% at a 5-minute delay
- 0x5cd5…ac33Keeps 56% at a 5-minute delay
See the full Politics copyability board, read the methodology, or learn how slippage and fees eat into copied returns.
This is a simulation built from historical on-chain fills; it is not a record of real copy trades. Past results don't predict future results. Only the wallet address and its public Polymarket name are shown.