In backtest, only 21% of 0x5cd5…ac33's buys could be fully copied at a 5-minute delay
ProvisionalIncludes trades from the last ~40 minutes, so these results may still change. Computed Oct 26, 2026, 02:17 UTC.
Only 21% of this trader's buys could be fully copied at a 5-minute delay, and another 10% only partly; the +$820.92 comes from the part you could copy. A copier who mirrored 0x5cd5…ac33's 2,185 buys across 463 markets with a 5-minute delay and $100 per trade would have kept 56% of the leader's returns: +$820.92 against +$1,463 for the leader at the same size. In this backtest, most of the edge survived the delay, and 21% of buys could be filled within 10 minutes. The remaining gap is delay cost $435.03, slippage helped by +$20.42 and fees $227.12. In the backtest, this simulated copy would have tied up to $16,225 at once across 670 positions.
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Key numbers
The headline numbers only count what real trades in the 10 minutes after the delay prove. “Including estimates” also counts the unproven part of a buy when order-book or trading-volume evidence says it was fillable, at an estimated price. Treat it as an upper view, not a promise. 1,451 estimated: 354 high · 832 medium · 265 low · 262 thin How we estimate
Cumulative PnL across all copied positions
Final values: 0 min: +$325.11; 1 min: +$721.98; 5 min: +$820.92; 30 min: −$251.82. Max drawdown −$438.05 (5 min, Oct 21). Hover or use the arrow keys to read values.
Chart data by day
| Day (UTC) | 0 min | 1 min | 5 min | 30 min |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 21 | +$8.70 | +$4.60 | −$3.79 | +$48.90 |
| Sep 22 | +$23.88 | +$252.21 | +$529.93 | +$140.36 |
| Sep 23 | +$241.89 | +$468.15 | +$683.18 | +$142.68 |
| Sep 24 | +$330.02 | +$556.24 | +$766.29 | +$162.47 |
| Sep 25 | +$351.71 | +$567.52 | +$771.08 | +$175.07 |
| Sep 26 | +$410.47 | +$602.86 | +$790.41 | +$197.04 |
| Sep 27 | +$437.19 | +$638.26 | +$824.40 | +$198.51 |
| Sep 28 | +$438.37 | +$639.31 | +$827.51 | +$191.02 |
| Sep 29 | +$463.69 | +$653.81 | +$839.35 | +$194.33 |
| Sep 30 | +$451.36 | +$658.03 | +$842.78 | +$195.97 |
| Oct 1 | +$524.39 | +$694.29 | +$864.54 | +$281.71 |
| Oct 2 | +$591.78 | +$783.66 | +$962.44 | +$326.76 |
| Oct 3 | +$602.64 | +$796.06 | +$965.73 | +$330.68 |
| Oct 4 | +$722.76 | +$912.48 | +$1,061 | +$374.23 |
| Oct 5 | +$719.94 | +$909.16 | +$1,061 | +$375.23 |
| Oct 6 | +$806.83 | +$988.73 | +$1,063 | +$376.93 |
| Oct 7 | +$807.97 | +$1,000 | +$1,092 | +$431.09 |
| Oct 8 | +$661.24 | +$931.18 | +$1,020 | +$473.94 |
| Oct 9 | +$748.08 | +$1,004 | +$1,077 | +$478.66 |
| Oct 10 | +$529.44 | +$769.96 | +$903.28 | +$240.71 |
| Oct 11 | +$571.42 | +$809.52 | +$944.13 | +$272.43 |
| Oct 12 | +$608.86 | +$844.11 | +$970.47 | +$277.36 |
| Oct 13 | +$612.00 | +$848.32 | +$984.12 | +$308.23 |
| Oct 14 | +$553.57 | +$789.91 | +$875.37 | +$247.15 |
| Oct 15 | +$525.68 | +$758.56 | +$825.92 | +$203.63 |
| Oct 16 | +$261.45 | +$628.37 | +$695.49 | −$16.52 |
| Oct 17 | +$276.09 | +$651.46 | +$714.17 | −$29.02 |
| Oct 18 | +$274.60 | +$646.81 | +$724.06 | −$22.34 |
| Oct 19 | +$313.25 | +$690.39 | +$775.42 | −$50.11 |
| Oct 20 | +$192.41 | +$578.59 | +$704.91 | −$122.38 |
| Oct 21 | +$357.56 | +$737.51 | +$842.16 | +$25.84 |
| Oct 22 | +$386.23 | +$758.96 | +$863.87 | +$50.27 |
| Oct 23 | +$386.04 | +$768.75 | +$875.43 | +$51.43 |
| Oct 24 | +$424.09 | +$804.23 | +$925.30 | +$39.27 |
| Oct 25 | +$332.58 | +$722.80 | +$824.78 | −$209.30 |
| Oct 26 | +$325.11 | +$721.98 | +$820.92 | −$251.82 |
Every delay side by side
| Delay | Follower PnL | Kept | Filled |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 min | +$325.11 | 22.2% | 23% |
| 1 min | +$721.98 | 49.4% | 22% |
| 5 min (selected) | +$820.92 | 56.1% | 21% |
| 30 min | −$251.82 | −17.2% | 16% |
Where the returns go
- Leader PnL at your size+$1,463
- Delay cost−$435.03
- Slippage helped+$20.42
- Fees (buys $212.96 · sells $14.16)−$227.12
- Follower PnL+$820.92
Leader PnL is scaled to your per-trade size. Delay cost is the price move between the leader's fill and yours; slippage is walking the book to fill your size; fees use the 2026 fee schedule. Methodology.
By category
| Category | Trades | Follower PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Politics | 876 | +$965.26 | +4.3% |
| Sports | 506 | −$378.32 | −2.0% |
| Crypto | 362 | +$74.95 | +1.0% |
| Tech | 127 | +$76.04 | +13.7% |
| Geopolitics | 112 | +$22.61 | +3.0% |
| Economy | 108 | +$55.26 | +8.4% |
| Culture | 64 | +$0.80 | +1.1% |
| Finance | 30 | +$4.30 | +2.1% |
Trades
Each leader buy and the copy we simulated at the selected delay. Open “Details” to see the market fills behind the copy price.
How fills are simulated: a copy can only fill against real taker buys of the same outcome within 10 minutes after the delay, so the headline numbers are conservative. Fill basis adds a second opinion: where no trade proved a fill, order-book or volume evidence may say the size was still fillable (an estimate, never in the headline). Methodology.
Filled whole order · Partial (NN%) part of it · No buyers nobody bought in the window — not counted · Data not in yet too recent to evaluate
| Date | Market | Leader price | Copy price | Fill | Fill basis | Follower PnL | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trades load from the live API when this section is visible. | |||||||
More Politics traders
- 0x55b4…80eaBeat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0x24c8…23e1Beat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0x614d…1546Beat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0x4488…e319Keeps 54% at a 5-minute delay
- 0x401e…6fc9Keeps 45% at a 5-minute delay
- 0xfb9d…d78eKeeps 59% at a 5-minute delay
See the full Politics copyability board, read the methodology, or learn how slippage and fees eat into copied returns.
This is a simulation built from historical on-chain fills; it is not a record of real copy trades. Past results don't predict future results. Only the wallet address and its public Polymarket name are shown.