In backtest, only 16% of 0xbf96…9942's buys could be fully copied at a 5-minute delay
Provisional
Only 16% of this trader's buys could be fully copied at a 5-minute delay, and another 14% only partly; the +$1,509 comes from the part you could copy. A copier who mirrored 0xbf96…9942's 322 buys across 67 markets with a 5-minute delay and $100 per trade would have kept 62% of the leader's returns: +$1,509 against +$2,440 for the leader at the same size. In this backtest, most of the edge survived the delay, and 16% of buys could be filled within 10 minutes. The remaining gap is delay cost $867.68, slippage helped by +$12.48 and fees $75.70. In the backtest, this simulated copy would have tied up to $3,233 at once across 95 positions.
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Key numbers
The headline numbers only count what real trades in the 10 minutes after the delay prove. “Including estimates” also counts the unproven part of a buy when order-book or trading-volume evidence says it was fillable, at an estimated price. Treat it as an upper view, not a promise. 244 estimated: 77 high · 149 medium · 18 low · 26 thin How we estimate
Cumulative PnL across all copied positions
Final values: 0 min: +$961.82; 1 min: +$855.23; 5 min: +$1,509; 30 min: +$1,397. Max drawdown −$98.70 (5 min, Oct 20). Hover or use the arrow keys to read values.
Chart data by day
| Day (UTC) | 0 min | 1 min | 5 min | 30 min |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 21 | +$38.31 | +$38.18 | +$34.66 | +$29.67 |
| Sep 22 | +$37.58 | +$36.31 | +$34.22 | +$25.94 |
| Sep 23 | +$66.36 | +$73.44 | +$53.03 | +$33.73 |
| Sep 24 | +$70.97 | +$78.04 | +$57.63 | +$33.73 |
| Sep 25 | +$84.87 | +$91.93 | +$57.63 | +$93.34 |
| Sep 26 | +$98.45 | +$105.50 | +$71.22 | +$97.77 |
| Sep 27 | +$105.20 | +$118.99 | +$81.70 | +$107.90 |
| Sep 28 | +$111.95 | +$121.21 | +$86.13 | +$107.91 |
| Sep 29 | +$251.72 | +$254.77 | +$141.90 | +$501.38 |
| Sep 30 | +$1,133 | +$1,075 | +$1,080 | +$1,231 |
| Oct 1 | +$1,184 | +$1,118 | +$1,139 | +$1,237 |
| Oct 2 | +$1,217 | +$1,130 | +$1,152 | +$1,237 |
| Oct 3 | +$1,230 | +$1,144 | +$1,168 | +$1,252 |
| Oct 4 | +$1,284 | +$1,199 | +$1,210 | +$1,280 |
| Oct 5 | +$1,299 | +$1,214 | +$1,225 | +$1,289 |
| Oct 6 | +$1,299 | +$1,214 | +$1,225 | +$1,289 |
| Oct 7 | +$1,322 | +$1,228 | +$1,228 | +$1,293 |
| Oct 8 | +$1,327 | +$1,230 | +$1,231 | +$1,294 |
| Oct 9 | +$1,342 | +$1,245 | +$1,239 | +$1,313 |
| Oct 10 | +$1,349 | +$1,245 | +$1,239 | +$1,314 |
| Oct 11 | +$1,350 | +$1,245 | +$1,240 | +$1,314 |
| Oct 12 | +$1,350 | +$1,245 | +$1,240 | +$1,314 |
| Oct 13 | +$1,381 | +$1,265 | +$1,248 | +$1,329 |
| Oct 14 | +$1,635 | +$1,525 | +$1,537 | +$1,600 |
| Oct 15 | +$1,649 | +$1,528 | +$1,544 | +$1,600 |
| Oct 16 | +$1,659 | +$1,538 | +$1,558 | +$1,566 |
| Oct 17 | +$1,659 | +$1,538 | +$1,558 | +$1,566 |
| Oct 18 | +$1,660 | +$1,539 | +$1,559 | +$1,566 |
| Oct 19 | +$1,579 | +$1,448 | +$1,513 | +$1,524 |
| Oct 20 | +$1,542 | +$1,392 | +$1,463 | +$1,501 |
| Oct 21 | +$1,538 | +$1,392 | +$1,463 | +$1,501 |
| Oct 22 | +$1,538 | +$1,392 | +$1,463 | +$1,501 |
| Oct 23 | +$976.14 | +$862.78 | +$1,510 | +$1,404 |
| Oct 24 | +$976.21 | +$862.80 | +$1,510 | +$1,404 |
| Oct 25 | +$961.82 | +$855.23 | +$1,509 | +$1,397 |
Every delay side by side
| Delay | Follower PnL | Kept | Filled |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 min | +$961.82 | 39.4% | 21% |
| 1 min | +$855.23 | 35.0% | 20% |
| 5 min (selected) | +$1,509 | 61.9% | 16% |
| 30 min | +$1,397 | 57.3% | 15% |
Where the returns go
- Leader PnL at your size+$2,440
- Delay cost−$867.68
- Slippage helped+$12.48
- Fees (buys $63.75 · sells $11.95)−$75.70
- Follower PnL+$1,509
Leader PnL is scaled to your per-trade size. Delay cost is the price move between the leader's fill and yours; slippage is walking the book to fill your size; fees use the 2026 fee schedule. Methodology.
By category
| Category | Trades | Follower PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Politics | 281 | +$1,473 | +25.5% |
| Economy | 28 | +$30.44 | +15.0% |
| Geopolitics | 13 | +$5.72 | +2.7% |
Trades
Each leader buy and the copy we simulated at the selected delay. Open “Details” to see the market fills behind the copy price.
How fills are simulated: a copy can only fill against real taker buys of the same outcome within 10 minutes after the delay, so the headline numbers are conservative. Fill basis adds a second opinion: where no trade proved a fill, order-book or volume evidence may say the size was still fillable (an estimate, never in the headline). Methodology.
Filled whole order · Partial (NN%) part of it · No buyers nobody bought in the window — not counted · Data not in yet too recent to evaluate
| Date | Market | Leader price | Copy price | Fill | Fill basis | Follower PnL | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trades load from the live API when this section is visible. | |||||||
More Politics traders
- 0x55b4…80eaBeat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0x24c8…23e1Beat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0x614d…1546Beat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0xf67f…31cfKeeps 51% at a 5-minute delay
- 0x5cd5…ac33Keeps 56% at a 5-minute delay
- 0x4488…e319Keeps 54% at a 5-minute delay
See the full Politics copyability board, read the methodology, or learn how slippage and fees eat into copied returns.
This is a simulation built from historical on-chain fills; it is not a record of real copy trades. Past results don't predict future results. Only the wallet address and its public Polymarket name are shown.