In backtest, only 32% of 0x401e…6fc9's buys could be fully copied at a 5-minute delay
Provisional1 buy is too recent to evaluate at this delay: the market data after it isn't indexed yet, so it's left out of these numbers. Computed Oct 26, 2026, 02:25 UTC.
Only 32% of this trader's buys could be fully copied at a 5-minute delay, and another 14% only partly; the +$2,471 comes from the part you could copy. A copier who mirrored 0x401e…6fc9's 3,100 buys across 210 markets with a 5-minute delay and $100 per trade would have kept only 45% of the leader's returns: +$2,471 against +$5,432 for the leader at the same size. Most of the edge is eaten before a follower can act: delay cost $269.79, slippage helped by +$177.85 and fees $2,870. In the backtest, this simulated copy would have tied up to $25,806 at once across 1,429 positions.
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Key numbers
The headline numbers only count what real trades in the 10 minutes after the delay prove. “Including estimates” also counts the unproven part of a buy when order-book or trading-volume evidence says it was fillable, at an estimated price. Treat it as an upper view, not a promise. 1,853 estimated: 1,081 high · 613 medium · 159 low · 226 thin How we estimate
Cumulative PnL across all copied positions
Final values: 0 min: +$4,454; 1 min: +$3,834; 5 min: +$2,471; 30 min: +$4,919. Max drawdown −$3,847 (5 min, Oct 24). Hover or use the arrow keys to read values.
Chart data by day
| Day (UTC) | 0 min | 1 min | 5 min | 30 min |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 21 | −$32.63 | −$9.58 | +$74.51 | −$50.62 |
| Sep 22 | −$91.86 | −$79.20 | +$2.03 | +$103.89 |
| Sep 23 | +$524.47 | +$435.11 | +$260.54 | −$106.04 |
| Sep 24 | +$426.97 | +$343.63 | +$134.81 | −$789.29 |
| Sep 25 | +$280.21 | +$99.95 | −$65.58 | −$757.83 |
| Sep 26 | +$97.28 | +$45.74 | −$170.75 | −$789.00 |
| Sep 27 | −$15.42 | +$50.55 | −$256.81 | −$999.86 |
| Sep 28 | +$436.86 | +$335.74 | +$75.84 | −$973.86 |
| Sep 29 | +$1,052 | +$972.27 | +$549.98 | −$944.15 |
| Sep 30 | +$1,039 | +$903.23 | +$715.89 | −$790.58 |
| Oct 1 | +$996.38 | +$867.20 | +$714.31 | −$850.25 |
| Oct 2 | +$1,056 | +$927.74 | +$784.12 | −$842.53 |
| Oct 3 | +$1,072 | +$985.34 | +$918.80 | −$685.85 |
| Oct 4 | +$1,004 | +$918.85 | +$728.54 | −$801.51 |
| Oct 5 | +$1,046 | +$965.84 | +$780.24 | −$830.18 |
| Oct 6 | +$1,079 | +$999.35 | +$804.01 | −$906.30 |
| Oct 7 | +$917.95 | +$876.25 | +$584.54 | −$1,166 |
| Oct 8 | +$915.53 | +$874.39 | +$584.26 | −$1,174 |
| Oct 9 | +$920.31 | +$882.61 | +$596.89 | −$1,162 |
| Oct 10 | +$917.18 | +$882.25 | +$493.81 | −$1,166 |
| Oct 11 | +$881.94 | +$887.12 | +$474.46 | −$1,161 |
| Oct 12 | +$817.52 | +$828.50 | +$420.07 | −$1,200 |
| Oct 13 | +$544.39 | +$565.33 | +$180.88 | −$1,191 |
| Oct 14 | +$377.72 | +$388.28 | +$406.62 | −$1,190 |
| Oct 15 | +$320.64 | +$281.65 | −$162.91 | −$1,846 |
| Oct 16 | −$50.15 | −$80.31 | −$514.51 | −$1,949 |
| Oct 17 | −$195.35 | −$120.70 | −$511.76 | −$1,960 |
| Oct 18 | −$406.95 | −$360.75 | −$630.52 | −$2,078 |
| Oct 19 | −$75.98 | −$58.43 | −$634.83 | −$2,380 |
| Oct 20 | −$38.44 | −$70.90 | −$738.05 | −$2,606 |
| Oct 21 | −$907.68 | −$1,045 | −$1,964 | −$3,627 |
| Oct 22 | −$953.06 | −$1,155 | −$2,112 | −$3,704 |
| Oct 23 | −$920.70 | −$1,479 | −$2,803 | −$3,688 |
| Oct 24 | +$2,971 | +$2,387 | +$970.84 | +$3,172 |
| Oct 25 | +$4,467 | +$3,844 | +$2,480 | +$4,922 |
| Oct 26 | +$4,454 | +$3,834 | +$2,471 | +$4,919 |
Every delay side by side
| Delay | Follower PnL | Kept | Filled |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 min | +$4,454 | 82.0% | 36% |
| 1 min | +$3,834 | 70.6% | 33% |
| 5 min (selected) | +$2,471 | 45.5% | 32% |
| 30 min | +$4,919 | 90.7% | 29% |
Where the returns go
- Leader PnL at your size+$5,432
- Delay cost−$269.79
- Slippage helped+$177.85
- Fees (buys $1,668 · sells $1,201)−$2,870
- Follower PnL+$2,471
Leader PnL is scaled to your per-trade size. Delay cost is the price move between the leader's fill and yours; slippage is walking the book to fill your size; fees use the 2026 fee schedule. Methodology.
By category
| Category | Trades | Follower PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Politics | 2,824 | +$2,290 | +2.1% |
| Geopolitics | 192 | +$185.87 | +4.7% |
| Finance | 45 | −$60.96 | −6.5% |
| Tech | 19 | +$38.33 | +5.1% |
| Sports | 8 | −$1.05 | −1.1% |
| Crypto | 7 | +$0.38 | +0.4% |
| Culture | 4 | +$17.74 | +17.7% |
Trades
Each leader buy and the copy we simulated at the selected delay. Open “Details” to see the market fills behind the copy price.
How fills are simulated: a copy can only fill against real taker buys of the same outcome within 10 minutes after the delay, so the headline numbers are conservative. Fill basis adds a second opinion: where no trade proved a fill, order-book or volume evidence may say the size was still fillable (an estimate, never in the headline). Methodology.
Filled whole order · Partial (NN%) part of it · No buyers nobody bought in the window — not counted · Data not in yet too recent to evaluate
| Date | Market | Leader price | Copy price | Fill | Fill basis | Follower PnL | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trades load from the live API when this section is visible. | |||||||
More Politics traders
- 0x55b4…80eaBeat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0x24c8…23e1Beat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0x614d…1546Beat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0xfb9d…d78eKeeps 59% at a 5-minute delay
- 0x0845…6b6fKeeps 46% at a 5-minute delay
- 0x7b02…4991Keeps 49% at a 5-minute delay
See the full Politics copyability board, read the methodology, or learn how slippage and fees eat into copied returns.
This is a simulation built from historical on-chain fills; it is not a record of real copy trades. Past results don't predict future results. Only the wallet address and its public Polymarket name are shown.