In backtest, only 17% of 0x4488…e319's buys could be fully copied at a 5-minute delay
Provisional1 buy is too recent to evaluate at this delay: the market data after it isn't indexed yet, so it's left out of these numbers. Computed Oct 26, 2026, 02:01 UTC.
Only 17% of this trader's buys could be fully copied at a 5-minute delay, and another 9% only partly; the +$32,006 comes from the part you could copy. A copier who mirrored 0x4488…e319's 3,471 buys across 225 markets with a 5-minute delay and $100 per trade would have kept 54% of the leader's returns: +$32,006 against +$59,125 for the leader at the same size. In this backtest, most of the edge survived the delay, and 17% of buys could be filled within 10 minutes. The remaining gap is delay cost $25,722, slippage $33.21 and fees $1,364. In the backtest, this simulated copy would have tied up to $19,620 at once across 930 positions.
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Key numbers
The headline numbers only count what real trades in the 10 minutes after the delay prove. “Including estimates” also counts the unproven part of a buy when order-book or trading-volume evidence says it was fillable, at an estimated price. Treat it as an upper view, not a promise. 1,810 estimated: 1,068 high · 560 medium · 182 low · 1,015 thin How we estimate
Cumulative PnL across all copied positions
Final values: 0 min: +$40,134; 1 min: +$37,123; 5 min: +$32,006; 30 min: +$30,222. Max drawdown −$6,903 (5 min, Oct 24). Hover or use the arrow keys to read values.
Chart data by day
| Day (UTC) | 0 min | 1 min | 5 min | 30 min |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 21 | +$11.08 | +$11.08 | +$17.68 | +$3.25 |
| Sep 22 | +$11.08 | +$11.08 | +$17.68 | +$3.25 |
| Sep 23 | +$53.55 | +$56.90 | +$61.59 | +$42.90 |
| Sep 24 | +$53.55 | +$56.90 | +$61.59 | +$42.90 |
| Sep 25 | +$65.69 | +$58.93 | +$77.79 | +$62.20 |
| Sep 26 | −$161.11 | −$236.46 | −$240.36 | +$328.80 |
| Sep 27 | −$1,078 | −$1,149 | −$952.85 | +$515.12 |
| Sep 28 | −$912.55 | −$946.56 | −$638.70 | +$958.36 |
| Sep 29 | −$680.14 | −$703.69 | −$392.52 | +$1,182 |
| Sep 30 | −$680.14 | −$703.69 | −$392.52 | +$1,182 |
| Oct 1 | −$719.58 | −$717.07 | −$507.09 | +$1,068 |
| Oct 2 | −$719.58 | −$717.07 | −$507.09 | +$1,068 |
| Oct 3 | +$6,400 | +$6,177 | +$8,232 | +$5,857 |
| Oct 4 | +$9,522 | +$9,283 | +$11,670 | +$8,436 |
| Oct 5 | +$9,277 | +$9,173 | +$11,536 | +$7,822 |
| Oct 6 | +$9,277 | +$9,173 | +$11,536 | +$7,822 |
| Oct 7 | +$9,276 | +$9,155 | +$11,511 | +$7,025 |
| Oct 8 | +$21,920 | +$21,805 | +$21,711 | +$18,598 |
| Oct 9 | +$26,099 | +$26,293 | +$25,161 | +$20,465 |
| Oct 10 | +$24,565 | +$24,990 | +$23,822 | +$19,252 |
| Oct 11 | +$23,064 | +$23,376 | +$22,218 | +$17,795 |
| Oct 12 | +$23,470 | +$23,783 | +$22,623 | +$17,705 |
| Oct 13 | +$22,760 | +$23,066 | +$21,904 | +$16,952 |
| Oct 14 | +$22,970 | +$23,313 | +$22,139 | +$17,116 |
| Oct 15 | +$22,861 | +$23,207 | +$22,036 | +$17,011 |
| Oct 16 | +$22,867 | +$23,208 | +$22,036 | +$17,011 |
| Oct 17 | +$21,849 | +$22,137 | +$20,938 | +$15,812 |
| Oct 18 | +$24,692 | +$25,114 | +$23,542 | +$17,025 |
| Oct 19 | +$25,700 | +$26,145 | +$24,426 | +$17,425 |
| Oct 20 | +$25,809 | +$26,248 | +$24,517 | +$17,766 |
| Oct 21 | +$25,858 | +$26,230 | +$24,508 | +$17,837 |
| Oct 22 | +$27,325 | +$26,971 | +$25,225 | +$19,047 |
| Oct 23 | +$29,392 | +$28,757 | +$25,720 | +$21,552 |
| Oct 24 | +$27,207 | +$24,897 | +$21,442 | +$18,594 |
| Oct 25 | +$39,957 | +$36,945 | +$31,914 | +$30,208 |
| Oct 26 | +$40,134 | +$37,123 | +$32,006 | +$30,222 |
Every delay side by side
| Delay | Follower PnL | Kept | Filled |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 min | +$40,134 | 67.9% | 19% |
| 1 min | +$37,123 | 62.8% | 18% |
| 5 min (selected) | +$32,006 | 54.1% | 17% |
| 30 min | +$30,222 | 51.1% | 17% |
Where the returns go
- Leader PnL at your size+$59,125
- Delay cost−$25,722
- Slippage−$33.21
- Fees (buys $1,330 · sells $33.97)−$1,364
- Follower PnL+$32,006
Leader PnL is scaled to your per-trade size. Delay cost is the price move between the leader's fill and yours; slippage is walking the book to fill your size; fees use the 2026 fee schedule. Methodology.
By category
| Category | Trades | Follower PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Politics | 2,506 | +$42,453 | +121% |
| Sports | 964 | −$10,447 | −32.9% |
Trades
Each leader buy and the copy we simulated at the selected delay. Open “Details” to see the market fills behind the copy price.
How fills are simulated: a copy can only fill against real taker buys of the same outcome within 10 minutes after the delay, so the headline numbers are conservative. Fill basis adds a second opinion: where no trade proved a fill, order-book or volume evidence may say the size was still fillable (an estimate, never in the headline). Methodology.
Filled whole order · Partial (NN%) part of it · No buyers nobody bought in the window — not counted · Data not in yet too recent to evaluate
| Date | Market | Leader price | Copy price | Fill | Fill basis | Follower PnL | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trades load from the live API when this section is visible. | |||||||
More Politics traders
- 0x55b4…80eaBeat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0x24c8…23e1Beat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0x614d…1546Beat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0x401e…6fc9Keeps 45% at a 5-minute delay
- 0xfb9d…d78eKeeps 59% at a 5-minute delay
- 0x0845…6b6fKeeps 46% at a 5-minute delay
See the full Politics copyability board, read the methodology, or learn how slippage and fees eat into copied returns.
This is a simulation built from historical on-chain fills; it is not a record of real copy trades. Past results don't predict future results. Only the wallet address and its public Polymarket name are shown.