0x5ca7…d0c4 lost money, yet a simulated copy at a 5-minute delay ended $186.88 up
Provisional
A copier who mirrored 0x5ca7…d0c4's 91 buys across 54 markets with a 5-minute delay and $100 per trade would have ended at +$186.88. The leader lost $153.12 at the same size, so there were no returns to keep; the copier only came out ahead because later prices happened to be better: the delay helped by +$479.89, slippage helped by +$33.30 and fees $173.19. In the backtest, this simulated copy would have tied up to $1,100 at once across 69 positions.
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Key numbers
The headline numbers only count what real trades in the 10 minutes after the delay prove. “Including estimates” also counts the unproven part of a buy when order-book or trading-volume evidence says it was fillable, at an estimated price. Treat it as an upper view, not a promise. 18 estimated: 3 high · 10 medium · 5 low · 14 thin How we estimate
Cumulative PnL across all copied positions
Final values: 0 min: −$399.32; 1 min: −$250.13; 5 min: +$186.88; 30 min: −$564.45. Max drawdown −$972.49 (5 min, Oct 15). Hover or use the arrow keys to read values.
Chart data by day
| Day (UTC) | 0 min | 1 min | 5 min | 30 min |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 25 | −$123.04 | −$143.76 | −$122.52 | −$203.53 |
| Sep 26 | −$723.09 | −$738.79 | −$640.25 | −$302.95 |
| Sep 27 | −$580.84 | −$600.23 | −$362.81 | −$404.43 |
| Sep 28 | +$68.85 | +$50.03 | +$361.94 | −$277.45 |
| Sep 29 | +$806.20 | +$888.33 | +$1,159 | +$579.40 |
| Sep 30 | +$387.43 | +$452.94 | +$682.61 | +$242.74 |
| Oct 1 | +$679.94 | +$792.07 | +$1,027 | +$236.46 |
| Oct 2 | +$404.88 | +$563.99 | +$820.35 | +$37.26 |
| Oct 3 | +$224.25 | +$395.22 | +$666.27 | −$106.64 |
| Oct 4 | +$228.74 | +$395.22 | +$666.27 | −$106.64 |
| Oct 5 | +$228.74 | +$395.22 | +$666.27 | −$106.64 |
| Oct 6 | +$340.54 | +$507.19 | +$785.16 | −$52.34 |
| Oct 7 | +$23.26 | +$189.37 | +$528.14 | −$256.34 |
| Oct 8 | +$23.26 | +$189.37 | +$528.14 | −$256.34 |
| Oct 9 | +$23.26 | +$189.37 | +$528.14 | −$256.34 |
| Oct 10 | +$23.26 | +$189.37 | +$528.14 | −$256.34 |
| Oct 11 | +$23.26 | +$189.37 | +$528.14 | −$256.34 |
| Oct 12 | +$23.26 | +$189.37 | +$528.14 | −$256.34 |
| Oct 13 | +$11.65 | +$159.82 | +$498.59 | −$256.34 |
| Oct 14 | +$11.65 | +$159.82 | +$498.59 | −$256.34 |
| Oct 15 | −$399.32 | −$250.13 | +$186.88 | −$564.45 |
Every delay side by side
| Delay | Follower PnL | Kept | Filled |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 min | −$399.32 | n/a (The leader lost money at this size, so there were no returns to keep) | 66% |
| 1 min | −$250.13 | n/a (The leader lost money at this size, so there were no returns to keep) | 65% |
| 5 min (selected) | +$186.88 | n/a (The leader lost money at this size, so there were no returns to keep) | 62% |
| 30 min | −$564.45 | n/a (The leader lost money at this size, so there were no returns to keep) | 51% |
Where the returns go
- Leader PnL at your size−$153.12
- Delay helped+$479.89
- Slippage helped+$33.30
- Fees (buys $170.54 · sells $2.65)−$173.19
- Follower PnL+$186.88
Leader PnL is scaled to your per-trade size. Delay cost is the price move between the leader's fill and yours; slippage is walking the book to fill your size; fees use the 2026 fee schedule. Methodology.
By category
| Category | Trades | Follower PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 91 | +$186.88 | +3.2% |
Trades
Each leader buy and the copy we simulated at the selected delay. Open “Details” to see the market fills behind the copy price.
How fills are simulated: a copy can only fill against real taker buys of the same outcome within 10 minutes after the delay, so the headline numbers are conservative. Fill basis adds a second opinion: where no trade proved a fill, order-book or volume evidence may say the size was still fillable (an estimate, never in the headline). Methodology.
Filled whole order · Partial (NN%) part of it · No buyers nobody bought in the window — not counted · Data not in yet too recent to evaluate
| Date | Market | Leader price | Copy price | Fill | Fill basis | Follower PnL | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trades load from the live API when this section is visible. | |||||||
More Sports traders
- 0x74b7…8b0bBeat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0xf28e…cab2Beat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0x5dee…30b1Beat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0xa0c5…e717Leader lost money at this size
- 0x24de…83cbLeader lost money at this size
- 0x2acc…ea7dLeader lost money at this size
See the full Sports copyability board, read the methodology, or learn how slippage and fees eat into copied returns.
This is a simulation built from historical on-chain fills; it is not a record of real copy trades. Past results don't predict future results. Only the wallet address and its public Polymarket name are shown.