In backtest, only 12% of 0x6114…cff0's buys could be fully copied at a 5-minute delay
Provisional
Only 12% of this trader's buys could be fully copied at a 5-minute delay, and another 8% only partly; the +$971.59 comes from the part you could copy. A copier who mirrored 0x6114…cff0's 565 buys across 91 markets with a 5-minute delay and $100 per trade would have made +$971.59 — more than the leader's +$45.86 at the same size, so the copier kept all of the leader's returns and more (2118.7%). That happens when prices keep moving the leader's way after they buy and a later entry ends up cheaper: the delay helped by +$1,151, slippage $98.44 and fees $126.53. A small sample can flip this, so compare the other delays and the trades below. In the backtest, this simulated copy would have tied up to $3,153 at once across 117 positions.
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Key numbers
The headline numbers only count what real trades in the 10 minutes after the delay prove. “Including estimates” also counts the unproven part of a buy when order-book or trading-volume evidence says it was fillable, at an estimated price. Treat it as an upper view, not a promise. 341 estimated: 75 high · 190 medium · 76 low · 150 thin How we estimate
Cumulative PnL across all copied positions
Final values: 0 min: +$57.41; 1 min: +$527.28; 5 min: +$971.59; 30 min: −$40.15. Max drawdown −$107.09 (5 min, Oct 25). Hover or use the arrow keys to read values.
Chart data by day
| Day (UTC) | 0 min | 1 min | 5 min | 30 min |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 21 | $0.00 | $0.00 | +$3.38 | +$4.42 |
| Sep 22 | +$85.22 | +$102.33 | +$97.57 | −$3.85 |
| Sep 23 | +$60.42 | +$87.98 | +$111.27 | +$8.71 |
| Sep 24 | −$4.08 | +$38.03 | +$60.46 | −$30.50 |
| Sep 25 | +$11.22 | +$51.10 | +$82.75 | −$44.96 |
| Sep 26 | +$32.21 | +$71.75 | +$103.86 | −$36.39 |
| Sep 27 | +$34.71 | +$75.74 | +$104.39 | −$36.39 |
| Sep 28 | +$34.71 | +$75.74 | +$104.39 | −$36.39 |
| Sep 29 | +$49.23 | +$99.04 | +$105.97 | −$31.98 |
| Sep 30 | +$18.27 | +$68.20 | +$106.66 | −$30.52 |
| Oct 1 | +$50.64 | +$94.75 | +$109.42 | +$4.08 |
| Oct 2 | +$87.36 | +$132.11 | +$108.57 | +$4.08 |
| Oct 3 | +$87.36 | +$132.11 | +$108.57 | +$4.08 |
| Oct 4 | +$136.85 | +$188.25 | +$157.32 | +$14.14 |
| Oct 5 | −$26.92 | +$190.51 | +$161.65 | +$13.00 |
| Oct 6 | −$15.11 | +$202.32 | +$173.46 | +$13.93 |
| Oct 7 | −$135.72 | +$78.55 | +$149.46 | −$87.19 |
| Oct 8 | −$118.21 | +$84.87 | +$186.74 | −$87.19 |
| Oct 9 | −$96.97 | +$108.94 | +$206.25 | −$62.16 |
| Oct 10 | −$96.97 | +$108.94 | +$206.25 | −$62.16 |
| Oct 11 | −$93.63 | +$112.38 | +$209.55 | −$82.81 |
| Oct 12 | −$92.81 | +$113.42 | +$209.71 | −$79.63 |
| Oct 13 | −$89.77 | +$116.45 | +$209.57 | −$79.63 |
| Oct 14 | −$92.50 | +$113.24 | +$213.19 | −$80.28 |
| Oct 15 | −$96.38 | +$102.93 | +$197.94 | −$71.58 |
| Oct 16 | +$75.15 | +$278.26 | +$277.19 | −$57.49 |
| Oct 17 | +$35.08 | +$238.19 | +$237.12 | −$57.49 |
| Oct 18 | +$31.67 | +$240.29 | +$237.29 | −$57.49 |
| Oct 19 | +$88.53 | +$571.90 | +$1,003 | −$74.65 |
| Oct 20 | +$88.53 | +$571.90 | +$1,006 | −$74.52 |
| Oct 21 | +$135.26 | +$619.69 | +$1,068 | −$4.56 |
| Oct 22 | +$149.56 | +$619.69 | +$1,068 | −$4.56 |
| Oct 23 | +$64.38 | +$534.13 | +$977.59 | −$42.14 |
| Oct 24 | +$64.38 | +$534.23 | +$977.68 | −$42.14 |
| Oct 25 | +$57.41 | +$527.28 | +$971.59 | −$40.15 |
Every delay side by side
| Delay | Follower PnL | Kept | Filled |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 min | +$57.41 | 100%+ (Exactly 125.2%: the simulated copy did better than the leader) | 15% |
| 1 min | +$527.28 | 100%+ (Exactly 1149.8%: the simulated copy did better than the leader) | 15% |
| 5 min (selected) | +$971.59 | 100%+ (Exactly 2118.7%: the simulated copy did better than the leader) | 12% |
| 30 min | −$40.15 | −87.5% | 10% |
Where the returns go
- Leader PnL at your size+$45.86
- Delay helped+$1,151
- Slippage−$98.44
- Fees (buys $79.53 · sells $47.00)−$126.53
- Follower PnL+$971.59
Leader PnL is scaled to your per-trade size. Delay cost is the price move between the leader's fill and yours; slippage is walking the book to fill your size; fees use the 2026 fee schedule. Methodology.
By category
| Category | Trades | Follower PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Politics | 343 | +$890.41 | +13.7% |
| Geopolitics | 162 | −$46.36 | −3.6% |
| Economy | 54 | +$123.48 | +33.3% |
| Finance | 3 | +$4.06 | +5.7% |
| Tech | 3 | $0.00 | 0.0% |
Trades
Each leader buy and the copy we simulated at the selected delay. Open “Details” to see the market fills behind the copy price.
How fills are simulated: a copy can only fill against real taker buys of the same outcome within 10 minutes after the delay, so the headline numbers are conservative. Fill basis adds a second opinion: where no trade proved a fill, order-book or volume evidence may say the size was still fillable (an estimate, never in the headline). Methodology.
Filled whole order · Partial (NN%) part of it · No buyers nobody bought in the window — not counted · Data not in yet too recent to evaluate
| Date | Market | Leader price | Copy price | Fill | Fill basis | Follower PnL | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trades load from the live API when this section is visible. | |||||||
More Politics traders
- 0x55b4…80eaBeat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0x24c8…23e1Beat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0x614d…1546Beat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0x80a4…22ccBeat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0xe7db…c00cBeat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0x3c91…9af7Keeps 91% at a 5-minute delay
See the full Politics copyability board, read the methodology, or learn how slippage and fees eat into copied returns.
This is a simulation built from historical on-chain fills; it is not a record of real copy trades. Past results don't predict future results. Only the wallet address and its public Polymarket name are shown.