In backtest, only 11% of 0x80a4…22cc's buys could be fully copied at a 5-minute delay
Provisional
Only 11% of this trader's buys could be fully copied at a 5-minute delay, and another 12% only partly; the +$937.13 comes from the part you could copy. A copier who mirrored 0x80a4…22cc's 2,164 buys across 220 markets with a 5-minute delay and $100 per trade would have made +$937.13 — more than the leader's +$905.01 at the same size, so the copier kept all of the leader's returns and more (103.5%). That happens when prices keep moving the leader's way after they buy and a later entry ends up cheaper: the delay helped by +$990.05, slippage $166.64 and fees $791.29. A small sample can flip this, so compare the other delays and the trades below. In the backtest, this simulated copy would have tied up to $18,214 at once across 499 positions.
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Key numbers
The headline numbers only count what real trades in the 10 minutes after the delay prove. “Including estimates” also counts the unproven part of a buy when order-book or trading-volume evidence says it was fillable, at an estimated price. Treat it as an upper view, not a promise. 1,183 estimated: 597 high · 356 medium · 230 low · 703 thin How we estimate
Cumulative PnL across all copied positions
Final values: 0 min: +$981.38; 1 min: +$939.18; 5 min: +$937.13; 30 min: −$314.59. Max drawdown −$2,168 (5 min, Oct 25). Hover or use the arrow keys to read values.
Chart data by day
| Day (UTC) | 0 min | 1 min | 5 min | 30 min |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 21 | −$28.42 | −$34.76 | +$17.91 | −$34.09 |
| Sep 22 | −$85.23 | −$93.13 | −$4.67 | +$36.21 |
| Sep 23 | +$638.14 | +$562.56 | +$445.90 | +$208.74 |
| Sep 24 | +$491.90 | +$549.89 | +$720.72 | +$149.49 |
| Sep 25 | +$292.28 | +$361.27 | +$480.56 | +$363.37 |
| Sep 26 | +$176.67 | +$260.71 | +$345.61 | +$284.14 |
| Sep 27 | +$110.65 | +$293.40 | +$263.64 | +$373.45 |
| Sep 28 | +$272.29 | +$393.01 | +$888.97 | +$1,359 |
| Sep 29 | −$490.33 | −$365.39 | +$114.31 | +$507.84 |
| Sep 30 | −$143.25 | +$105.09 | +$473.50 | +$1,047 |
| Oct 1 | +$586.24 | +$509.11 | +$756.65 | +$1,475 |
| Oct 2 | +$532.46 | +$438.67 | +$677.13 | +$1,493 |
| Oct 3 | +$500.31 | +$410.75 | +$630.68 | +$1,493 |
| Oct 4 | +$500.31 | +$410.75 | +$630.68 | +$1,493 |
| Oct 5 | +$394.15 | +$307.95 | +$527.88 | +$1,328 |
| Oct 6 | +$359.76 | +$276.12 | +$500.70 | +$1,328 |
| Oct 7 | +$355.43 | +$275.15 | +$350.19 | +$1,331 |
| Oct 8 | +$322.33 | +$252.57 | +$457.75 | +$1,138 |
| Oct 9 | +$322.33 | +$252.57 | +$457.75 | +$1,138 |
| Oct 10 | +$318.92 | +$249.75 | +$452.94 | +$1,091 |
| Oct 11 | +$515.54 | +$393.25 | +$568.06 | +$1,101 |
| Oct 12 | +$562.82 | +$377.84 | +$561.64 | +$905.30 |
| Oct 13 | +$457.56 | +$265.76 | +$440.23 | +$927.20 |
| Oct 14 | +$2,088 | +$2,223 | +$957.06 | +$1,207 |
| Oct 15 | +$2,038 | +$2,148 | +$851.93 | +$923.72 |
| Oct 16 | +$1,631 | +$1,786 | +$357.96 | +$714.90 |
| Oct 17 | +$1,616 | +$1,786 | +$357.96 | +$714.90 |
| Oct 18 | +$2,129 | +$2,321 | +$822.83 | +$1,252 |
| Oct 19 | +$1,921 | +$2,218 | +$629.68 | +$1,202 |
| Oct 20 | +$2,615 | +$2,965 | +$1,688 | +$1,354 |
| Oct 21 | +$2,515 | +$2,811 | +$1,768 | +$1,563 |
| Oct 22 | +$2,326 | +$2,001 | +$1,115 | +$1,098 |
| Oct 23 | +$3,507 | +$3,240 | +$2,496 | +$1,256 |
| Oct 24 | +$2,880 | +$2,689 | +$2,336 | +$778.00 |
| Oct 25 | +$981.38 | +$939.18 | +$937.13 | −$314.59 |
Every delay side by side
| Delay | Follower PnL | Kept | Filled |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 min | +$981.38 | 100%+ (Exactly 108.4%: the simulated copy did better than the leader) | 14% |
| 1 min | +$939.18 | 100%+ (Exactly 103.8%: the simulated copy did better than the leader) | 13% |
| 5 min (selected) | +$937.13 | 100%+ (Exactly 103.5%: the simulated copy did better than the leader) | 11% |
| 30 min | −$314.59 | −34.8% | 8% |
Where the returns go
- Leader PnL at your size+$905.01
- Delay helped+$990.05
- Slippage−$166.64
- Fees (buys $666.63 · sells $124.66)−$791.29
- Follower PnL+$937.13
Leader PnL is scaled to your per-trade size. Delay cost is the price move between the leader's fill and yours; slippage is walking the book to fill your size; fees use the 2026 fee schedule. Methodology.
By category
| Category | Trades | Follower PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Politics | 1,530 | +$866.16 | +3.4% |
| Economy | 256 | −$151.17 | −5.8% |
| Culture | 156 | −$93.33 | −6.5% |
| Tech | 130 | +$288.19 | +66.3% |
| Finance | 54 | +$68.83 | +27.3% |
| Sports | 38 | −$41.54 | −6.0% |
Trades
Each leader buy and the copy we simulated at the selected delay. Open “Details” to see the market fills behind the copy price.
How fills are simulated: a copy can only fill against real taker buys of the same outcome within 10 minutes after the delay, so the headline numbers are conservative. Fill basis adds a second opinion: where no trade proved a fill, order-book or volume evidence may say the size was still fillable (an estimate, never in the headline). Methodology.
Filled whole order · Partial (NN%) part of it · No buyers nobody bought in the window — not counted · Data not in yet too recent to evaluate
| Date | Market | Leader price | Copy price | Fill | Fill basis | Follower PnL | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trades load from the live API when this section is visible. | |||||||
More Politics traders
- 0x55b4…80eaBeat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0x24c8…23e1Beat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0x614d…1546Beat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0xe7db…c00cBeat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0x3c91…9af7Keeps 91% at a 5-minute delay
- 0xd46b…5dabBeat the leader at a 5-minute delay
See the full Politics copyability board, read the methodology, or learn how slippage and fees eat into copied returns.
This is a simulation built from historical on-chain fills; it is not a record of real copy trades. Past results don't predict future results. Only the wallet address and its public Polymarket name are shown.