In backtest, only 13% of 0x62cf…5826's buys could be fully copied at a 5-minute delay
Provisional
Only 13% of this trader's buys could be fully copied at a 5-minute delay, and another 11% only partly; the +$1,267 comes from the part you could copy. A copier who mirrored 0x62cf…5826's 803 buys across 101 markets with a 5-minute delay and $100 per trade would have kept only 31% of the leader's returns: +$1,267 against +$4,029 for the leader at the same size. Most of the edge is eaten before a follower can act: delay cost $2,651, slippage $16.25 and fees $94.61. In the backtest, this simulated copy would have tied up to $5,276 at once across 192 positions.
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Key numbers
The headline numbers only count what real trades in the 10 minutes after the delay prove. “Including estimates” also counts the unproven part of a buy when order-book or trading-volume evidence says it was fillable, at an estimated price. Treat it as an upper view, not a promise. 517 estimated: 243 high · 208 medium · 66 low · 177 thin How we estimate
Cumulative PnL across all copied positions
Final values: 0 min: +$537.43; 1 min: +$919.73; 5 min: +$1,267; 30 min: +$1,021. Max drawdown −$220.95 (5 min, Oct 19). Hover or use the arrow keys to read values.
Chart data by day
| Day (UTC) | 0 min | 1 min | 5 min | 30 min |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 21 | +$3.90 | $0.00 | +$8.38 | +$80.58 |
| Sep 22 | +$329.53 | +$220.68 | +$122.33 | +$533.13 |
| Sep 23 | +$360.29 | +$270.94 | +$494.67 | +$708.70 |
| Sep 24 | +$325.43 | +$240.71 | +$443.37 | +$728.75 |
| Sep 25 | +$500.35 | +$414.76 | +$615.90 | +$874.51 |
| Sep 26 | +$520.82 | +$431.52 | +$644.42 | +$910.18 |
| Sep 27 | +$616.44 | +$559.33 | +$741.33 | +$1,037 |
| Sep 28 | +$557.47 | +$575.34 | +$770.49 | +$1,078 |
| Sep 29 | +$557.47 | +$575.34 | +$770.49 | +$1,078 |
| Sep 30 | +$674.64 | +$690.62 | +$885.76 | +$1,115 |
| Oct 1 | +$682.13 | +$699.22 | +$892.11 | +$1,114 |
| Oct 2 | +$683.43 | +$698.51 | +$897.60 | +$1,114 |
| Oct 3 | +$800.93 | +$838.01 | +$1,035 | +$1,109 |
| Oct 4 | +$800.93 | +$842.58 | +$1,117 | +$1,109 |
| Oct 5 | +$960.01 | +$1,033 | +$1,321 | +$1,194 |
| Oct 6 | +$1,051 | +$1,101 | +$1,363 | +$1,216 |
| Oct 7 | +$1,132 | +$1,105 | +$1,351 | +$1,216 |
| Oct 8 | +$1,087 | +$1,059 | +$1,305 | +$1,218 |
| Oct 9 | +$1,077 | +$1,031 | +$1,315 | +$1,210 |
| Oct 10 | +$1,081 | +$1,036 | +$1,323 | +$1,218 |
| Oct 11 | +$1,134 | +$1,071 | +$1,331 | +$1,226 |
| Oct 12 | +$814.48 | +$912.22 | +$1,256 | +$1,269 |
| Oct 13 | +$792.53 | +$938.35 | +$1,268 | +$1,289 |
| Oct 14 | +$861.89 | +$1,029 | +$1,355 | +$1,294 |
| Oct 15 | +$814.76 | +$1,035 | +$1,361 | +$1,095 |
| Oct 16 | +$834.18 | +$1,042 | +$1,373 | +$1,103 |
| Oct 17 | +$840.59 | +$1,051 | +$1,379 | +$1,107 |
| Oct 18 | +$851.00 | +$1,059 | +$1,387 | +$1,107 |
| Oct 19 | +$521.47 | +$838.66 | +$1,174 | +$1,002 |
| Oct 20 | +$523.05 | +$839.83 | +$1,193 | +$1,002 |
| Oct 21 | +$561.85 | +$882.66 | +$1,224 | +$983.02 |
| Oct 22 | +$542.91 | +$899.23 | +$1,235 | +$976.64 |
| Oct 23 | +$547.77 | +$926.46 | +$1,268 | +$1,025 |
| Oct 24 | +$537.72 | +$919.73 | +$1,259 | +$1,020 |
| Oct 25 | +$537.43 | +$919.73 | +$1,267 | +$1,021 |
Every delay side by side
| Delay | Follower PnL | Kept | Filled |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 min | +$537.43 | 13.3% | 15% |
| 1 min | +$919.73 | 22.8% | 13% |
| 5 min (selected) | +$1,267 | 31.4% | 13% |
| 30 min | +$1,021 | 25.3% | 9% |
Where the returns go
- Leader PnL at your size+$4,029
- Delay cost−$2,651
- Slippage−$16.25
- Fees (buys $89.17 · sells $5.44)−$94.61
- Follower PnL+$1,267
Leader PnL is scaled to your per-trade size. Delay cost is the price move between the leader's fill and yours; slippage is walking the book to fill your size; fees use the 2026 fee schedule. Methodology.
By category
| Category | Trades | Follower PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Politics | 434 | +$989.73 | +10.7% |
| Geopolitics | 180 | −$29.13 | −1.5% |
| Tech | 122 | +$304.75 | +42.2% |
| Culture | 66 | +$1.38 | +0.8% |
| Crypto | 1 | $0.00 | 0.0% |
Trades
Each leader buy and the copy we simulated at the selected delay. Open “Details” to see the market fills behind the copy price.
How fills are simulated: a copy can only fill against real taker buys of the same outcome within 10 minutes after the delay, so the headline numbers are conservative. Fill basis adds a second opinion: where no trade proved a fill, order-book or volume evidence may say the size was still fillable (an estimate, never in the headline). Methodology.
Filled whole order · Partial (NN%) part of it · No buyers nobody bought in the window — not counted · Data not in yet too recent to evaluate
| Date | Market | Leader price | Copy price | Fill | Fill basis | Follower PnL | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trades load from the live API when this section is visible. | |||||||
More Politics traders
- 0x55b4…80eaBeat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0x24c8…23e1Beat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0x614d…1546Beat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0x606f…1083Keeps 23% at a 5-minute delay
- 0x212f…7fd2Leader lost money at this size
- 0x22e4…ef1cLeader lost money at this size
See the full Politics copyability board, read the methodology, or learn how slippage and fees eat into copied returns.
This is a simulation built from historical on-chain fills; it is not a record of real copy trades. Past results don't predict future results. Only the wallet address and its public Polymarket name are shown.