In backtest, copying 0xc4ad…9948 beat the leader at a 5-minute delay
Provisional
A copier who mirrored 0xc4ad…9948's 4,280 buys across 173 markets with a 5-minute delay and $100 per trade would have made +$24,330 — more than the leader's +$4,963 at the same size, so the copier kept all of the leader's returns and more (490.2%). That happens when prices keep moving the leader's way after they buy and a later entry ends up cheaper: the delay helped by +$23,874, slippage helped by +$2,286 and fees $6,793. A small sample can flip this, so compare the other delays and the trades below. In the backtest, this simulated copy would have tied up to $26,080 at once across 2,851 positions.
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Key numbers
The headline numbers only count what real trades in the 10 minutes after the delay prove. “Including estimates” also counts the unproven part of a buy when order-book or trading-volume evidence says it was fillable, at an estimated price. Treat it as an upper view, not a promise. 1,044 estimated: 133 high · 808 medium · 103 low · 548 thin How we estimate
Cumulative PnL across all copied positions
Final values: 0 min: +$35,453; 1 min: +$12,331; 5 min: +$24,330; 30 min: +$17,583. Max drawdown −$25,000 (5 min, Oct 10). Hover or use the arrow keys to read values.
Chart data by day
| Day (UTC) | 0 min | 1 min | 5 min | 30 min |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 21 | +$1,963 | +$1,571 | +$3,235 | +$3,743 |
| Sep 22 | +$349.35 | +$134.93 | +$2,565 | +$3,349 |
| Sep 23 | −$759.71 | −$783.37 | +$1,786 | +$3,349 |
| Sep 24 | −$3,187 | −$3,258 | +$531.06 | +$3,109 |
| Sep 25 | +$2,898 | +$2,437 | +$5,506 | +$4,834 |
| Sep 26 | −$360.51 | −$1,662 | +$3,049 | +$2,836 |
| Sep 27 | −$3,223 | −$5,279 | +$2,262 | +$1,777 |
| Sep 28 | −$3,223 | −$5,279 | +$2,262 | +$1,777 |
| Sep 29 | +$30,827 | +$30,405 | +$37,168 | +$22,395 |
| Sep 30 | +$32,474 | +$32,956 | +$43,158 | +$24,407 |
| Oct 1 | +$24,735 | +$25,639 | +$34,925 | +$20,893 |
| Oct 2 | +$21,064 | +$20,046 | +$31,761 | +$19,825 |
| Oct 3 | +$7,370 | +$7,739 | +$22,777 | +$17,613 |
| Oct 4 | +$5,333 | +$6,351 | +$21,468 | +$17,613 |
| Oct 5 | +$5,333 | +$6,351 | +$21,468 | +$17,613 |
| Oct 6 | +$5,333 | +$6,351 | +$21,468 | +$17,613 |
| Oct 7 | +$5,333 | +$6,351 | +$21,468 | +$17,613 |
| Oct 8 | +$5,333 | +$6,351 | +$21,468 | +$17,613 |
| Oct 9 | +$5,333 | +$6,351 | +$21,468 | +$17,613 |
| Oct 10 | +$5,929 | +$4,487 | +$21,126 | +$17,604 |
| Oct 11 | +$10,633 | +$7,165 | +$25,195 | +$17,604 |
| Oct 12 | +$10,633 | +$7,165 | +$25,195 | +$17,604 |
| Oct 13 | +$10,633 | +$7,165 | +$25,195 | +$17,604 |
| Oct 14 | +$10,633 | +$7,165 | +$25,195 | +$17,604 |
| Oct 15 | +$10,633 | +$7,165 | +$25,195 | +$17,604 |
| Oct 16 | +$10,633 | +$7,165 | +$25,195 | +$17,604 |
| Oct 17 | +$16,159 | +$10,108 | +$24,225 | +$17,601 |
| Oct 18 | +$15,292 | +$8,553 | +$22,566 | +$17,601 |
| Oct 19 | +$15,292 | +$8,553 | +$22,566 | +$17,601 |
| Oct 20 | +$15,292 | +$8,553 | +$22,566 | +$17,601 |
| Oct 21 | +$15,292 | +$8,553 | +$22,566 | +$17,601 |
| Oct 22 | +$15,292 | +$8,553 | +$22,566 | +$17,601 |
| Oct 23 | +$15,292 | +$8,553 | +$22,566 | +$17,601 |
| Oct 24 | +$35,453 | +$12,331 | +$24,330 | +$17,583 |
Every delay side by side
| Delay | Follower PnL | Kept | Filled |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 min | +$35,453 | 100%+ (Exactly 714.3%: the simulated copy did better than the leader) | 83% |
| 1 min | +$12,331 | 100%+ (Exactly 248.4%: the simulated copy did better than the leader) | 77% |
| 5 min (selected) | +$24,330 | 100%+ (Exactly 490.2%: the simulated copy did better than the leader) | 62% |
| 30 min | +$17,583 | 100%+ (Exactly 354.3%: the simulated copy did better than the leader) | 16% |
Where the returns go
- Leader PnL at your size+$4,963
- Delay helped+$23,874
- Slippage helped+$2,286
- Fees (buys $6,784 · sells $9.06)−$6,793
- Follower PnL+$24,330
Leader PnL is scaled to your per-trade size. Delay cost is the price move between the leader's fill and yours; slippage is walking the book to fill your size; fees use the 2026 fee schedule. Methodology.
By category
| Category | Trades | Follower PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 4,280 | +$24,330 | +9.0% |
Trades
Each leader buy and the copy we simulated at the selected delay. Open “Details” to see the market fills behind the copy price.
How fills are simulated: a copy can only fill against real taker buys of the same outcome within 10 minutes after the delay, so the headline numbers are conservative. Fill basis adds a second opinion: where no trade proved a fill, order-book or volume evidence may say the size was still fillable (an estimate, never in the headline). Methodology.
Filled whole order · Partial (NN%) part of it · No buyers nobody bought in the window — not counted · Data not in yet too recent to evaluate
| Date | Market | Leader price | Copy price | Fill | Fill basis | Follower PnL | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trades load from the live API when this section is visible. | |||||||
More Sports traders
- 0x74b7…8b0bBeat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0xf28e…cab2Beat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0x5dee…30b1Beat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0x8a86…4998Beat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0x996b…abf7Beat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0x47c8…86bcBeat the leader at a 5-minute delay
See the full Sports copyability board, read the methodology, or learn how slippage and fees eat into copied returns.
This is a simulation built from historical on-chain fills; it is not a record of real copy trades. Past results don't predict future results. Only the wallet address and its public Polymarket name are shown.