In backtest, copying 0x9ee4…697b beat the leader at a 5-minute delay
Provisional
A copier who mirrored 0x9ee4…697b's 174 buys across 29 markets with a 5-minute delay and $100 per trade would have made +$674.36 — more than the leader's +$256.09 at the same size, so the copier kept all of the leader's returns and more (263.3%). That happens when prices keep moving the leader's way after they buy and a later entry ends up cheaper: the delay helped by +$427.73, slippage helped by +$235.02 and fees $244.48. A small sample can flip this, so compare the other delays and the trades below. In the backtest, this simulated copy would have tied up to $2,400 at once across 139 positions.
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Key numbers
The headline numbers only count what real trades in the 10 minutes after the delay prove. “Including estimates” also counts the unproven part of a buy when order-book or trading-volume evidence says it was fillable, at an estimated price. Treat it as an upper view, not a promise. 23 estimated: 2 high · 17 medium · 4 low · 16 thin How we estimate
Cumulative PnL across all copied positions
Final values: 0 min: −$130.44; 1 min: −$41.86; 5 min: +$674.36; 30 min: +$1,315. Max drawdown −$1,009 (5 min, Oct 13). Hover or use the arrow keys to read values.
Chart data by day
| Day (UTC) | 0 min | 1 min | 5 min | 30 min |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 21 | +$90.92 | +$83.29 | +$159.26 | +$80.75 |
| Sep 22 | +$175.19 | +$161.64 | +$194.64 | +$153.33 |
| Sep 23 | +$175.19 | +$161.64 | +$194.64 | +$153.33 |
| Sep 24 | +$175.19 | +$161.64 | +$194.64 | +$153.33 |
| Sep 25 | +$238.62 | +$218.29 | +$224.72 | +$178.43 |
| Sep 26 | +$238.62 | +$218.29 | +$224.72 | +$178.43 |
| Sep 27 | +$388.78 | +$347.77 | +$276.94 | +$1,205 |
| Sep 28 | +$365.29 | +$331.16 | +$442.34 | +$1,210 |
| Sep 29 | +$418.93 | +$383.51 | +$474.54 | +$1,210 |
| Sep 30 | +$418.93 | +$383.51 | +$474.54 | +$1,210 |
| Oct 1 | +$418.93 | +$383.51 | +$474.54 | +$1,210 |
| Oct 2 | +$455.51 | +$433.48 | +$553.10 | +$1,210 |
| Oct 3 | +$455.51 | +$433.48 | +$553.10 | +$1,210 |
| Oct 4 | +$479.51 | +$457.49 | +$561.96 | +$1,217 |
| Oct 5 | +$494.92 | +$474.05 | +$556.97 | +$1,197 |
| Oct 6 | +$618.89 | +$598.02 | +$675.75 | +$1,279 |
| Oct 7 | +$579.50 | +$579.98 | +$675.75 | +$1,279 |
| Oct 8 | +$579.50 | +$579.98 | +$675.75 | +$1,279 |
| Oct 9 | +$593.79 | +$595.56 | +$685.19 | +$1,300 |
| Oct 10 | +$593.79 | +$595.56 | +$685.19 | +$1,223 |
| Oct 11 | +$276.33 | +$242.74 | +$785.09 | +$2,430 |
| Oct 12 | −$411.70 | −$427.62 | +$415.18 | +$796.99 |
| Oct 13 | −$162.25 | −$14.06 | +$863.57 | +$1,553 |
| Oct 14 | −$162.25 | −$14.06 | +$863.57 | +$1,553 |
| Oct 15 | −$162.25 | −$14.06 | +$863.57 | +$1,553 |
| Oct 16 | −$212.67 | −$64.47 | +$818.64 | +$1,582 |
| Oct 17 | −$212.67 | −$64.47 | +$818.64 | +$1,582 |
| Oct 18 | −$441.77 | −$359.25 | +$519.24 | +$1,185 |
| Oct 19 | −$441.77 | −$359.25 | +$519.24 | +$1,185 |
| Oct 20 | −$441.77 | −$359.25 | +$519.24 | +$1,185 |
| Oct 21 | −$441.77 | −$359.25 | +$519.24 | +$1,185 |
| Oct 22 | −$441.77 | −$359.25 | +$519.24 | +$1,185 |
| Oct 23 | −$441.77 | −$359.25 | +$519.24 | +$1,185 |
| Oct 24 | −$441.77 | −$359.25 | +$519.24 | +$1,185 |
| Oct 25 | −$130.44 | −$41.86 | +$674.36 | +$1,315 |
Every delay side by side
| Delay | Follower PnL | Kept | Filled |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 min | −$130.44 | −50.9% | 77% |
| 1 min | −$41.86 | −16.3% | 76% |
| 5 min (selected) | +$674.36 | 100%+ (Exactly 263.3%: the simulated copy did better than the leader) | 78% |
| 30 min | +$1,315 | 100%+ (Exactly 513.5%: the simulated copy did better than the leader) | 67% |
Where the returns go
- Leader PnL at your size+$256.09
- Delay helped+$427.73
- Slippage helped+$235.02
- Fees (buys $191.53 · sells $52.95)−$244.48
- Follower PnL+$674.36
Leader PnL is scaled to your per-trade size. Delay cost is the price move between the leader's fill and yours; slippage is walking the book to fill your size; fees use the 2026 fee schedule. Methodology.
By category
| Category | Trades | Follower PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 159 | +$674.67 | +5.0% |
| Other | 15 | −$0.31 | −30.9% |
Trades
Each leader buy and the copy we simulated at the selected delay. Open “Details” to see the market fills behind the copy price.
How fills are simulated: a copy can only fill against real taker buys of the same outcome within 10 minutes after the delay, so the headline numbers are conservative. Fill basis adds a second opinion: where no trade proved a fill, order-book or volume evidence may say the size was still fillable (an estimate, never in the headline). Methodology.
Filled whole order · Partial (NN%) part of it · No buyers nobody bought in the window — not counted · Data not in yet too recent to evaluate
| Date | Market | Leader price | Copy price | Fill | Fill basis | Follower PnL | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trades load from the live API when this section is visible. | |||||||
More Sports traders
- 0x74b7…8b0bBeat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0xf28e…cab2Beat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0x5dee…30b1Beat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0xf19b…1613Keeps 89% at a 5-minute delay
- 0x7011…c6daBeat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0xc4ad…9948Beat the leader at a 5-minute delay
See the full Sports copyability board, read the methodology, or learn how slippage and fees eat into copied returns.
This is a simulation built from historical on-chain fills; it is not a record of real copy trades. Past results don't predict future results. Only the wallet address and its public Polymarket name are shown.