In backtest, only 22% of 0x76db…6987's buys could be fully copied at a 5-minute delay
Provisional14 buys are too recent to evaluate at this delay: the market data after them isn't indexed yet, so they're left out of these numbers. Computed Oct 26, 2026, 02:09 UTC.
Only 22% of this trader's buys could be fully copied at a 5-minute delay, and another 11% only partly; the −$8,020 comes from the part you could copy. A copier who mirrored 0x76db…6987's 3,061 buys across 161 markets with a 5-minute delay and $100 per trade would have ended at −$8,020, while the leader made +$20,163 at the same size. At a 5-minute delay a follower can't keep up: delay cost $26,577, slippage $335.99 and fees $1,271 outweigh whatever edge the leader had. In the backtest, this simulated copy would have tied up to $45,680 at once across 980 positions.
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Key numbers
The headline numbers only count what real trades in the 10 minutes after the delay prove. “Including estimates” also counts the unproven part of a buy when order-book or trading-volume evidence says it was fillable, at an estimated price. Treat it as an upper view, not a promise. 1,377 estimated: 493 high · 527 medium · 357 low · 922 thin How we estimate
Cumulative PnL across all copied positions
Final values: 0 min: −$2,170; 1 min: −$6,262; 5 min: −$8,020; 30 min: −$6,495. Max drawdown −$11,119 (5 min, Oct 26). Hover or use the arrow keys to read values.
Chart data by day
| Day (UTC) | 0 min | 1 min | 5 min | 30 min |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 21 | −$28.59 | +$48.98 | +$48.31 | +$674.44 |
| Sep 22 | +$1,054 | +$38.20 | +$343.29 | −$380.78 |
| Sep 23 | +$1,055 | +$40.92 | +$332.13 | −$380.39 |
| Sep 24 | +$1,224 | +$209.07 | +$627.67 | −$380.39 |
| Sep 25 | +$1,201 | +$186.13 | +$627.67 | −$380.39 |
| Sep 26 | +$1,344 | +$162.52 | +$630.88 | −$451.48 |
| Sep 27 | +$857.94 | −$204.50 | +$467.32 | −$493.96 |
| Sep 28 | +$1,752 | +$592.71 | +$943.69 | −$357.25 |
| Sep 29 | +$2,162 | +$984.37 | +$1,440 | −$211.16 |
| Sep 30 | +$2,933 | +$1,784 | +$1,212 | +$911.13 |
| Oct 1 | +$2,845 | +$1,458 | +$931.11 | +$1,041 |
| Oct 2 | +$4,737 | +$2,592 | +$677.04 | +$1,310 |
| Oct 3 | +$6,058 | +$3,993 | +$1,547 | +$2,532 |
| Oct 4 | +$2,293 | −$1,989 | −$4,925 | −$4,618 |
| Oct 5 | +$1,821 | −$2,464 | −$5,133 | −$4,825 |
| Oct 6 | +$1,810 | −$2,474 | −$5,180 | −$4,830 |
| Oct 7 | +$1,624 | −$2,655 | −$5,191 | −$4,818 |
| Oct 8 | +$1,589 | −$2,668 | −$4,845 | −$4,949 |
| Oct 9 | +$1,604 | −$2,673 | −$4,846 | −$4,890 |
| Oct 10 | +$1,591 | −$2,664 | −$4,849 | −$4,885 |
| Oct 11 | +$1,582 | −$2,673 | −$4,842 | −$4,885 |
| Oct 12 | +$1,580 | −$2,673 | −$4,841 | −$4,897 |
| Oct 13 | +$1,574 | −$2,679 | −$4,841 | −$4,897 |
| Oct 14 | +$1,593 | −$2,734 | −$4,841 | −$4,896 |
| Oct 15 | +$1,568 | −$2,754 | −$4,851 | −$4,896 |
| Oct 16 | +$1,496 | −$2,766 | −$4,861 | −$4,883 |
| Oct 17 | +$1,451 | −$2,784 | −$4,878 | −$4,883 |
| Oct 18 | +$1,452 | −$2,783 | −$4,888 | −$4,828 |
| Oct 19 | +$1,683 | −$2,522 | −$4,766 | −$4,912 |
| Oct 20 | +$1,594 | −$2,559 | −$4,720 | −$4,946 |
| Oct 21 | +$1,620 | −$2,415 | −$4,713 | −$5,032 |
| Oct 22 | +$1,672 | −$2,385 | −$4,728 | −$5,052 |
| Oct 23 | +$1,424 | −$2,633 | −$4,754 | −$5,126 |
| Oct 24 | +$1,418 | −$2,629 | −$4,933 | −$5,144 |
| Oct 25 | −$2,168 | −$6,259 | −$7,729 | −$6,495 |
| Oct 26 | −$2,170 | −$6,262 | −$8,020 | −$6,495 |
Every delay side by side
| Delay | Follower PnL | Kept | Filled |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 min | −$2,170 | −10.8% | 25% |
| 1 min | −$6,262 | −31.1% | 23% |
| 5 min (selected) | −$8,020 | −39.8% | 22% |
| 30 min | −$6,495 | −32.2% | 18% |
Where the returns go
- Leader PnL at your size+$20,163
- Delay cost−$26,577
- Slippage−$335.99
- Fees (buys $1,236 · sells $34.59)−$1,271
- Follower PnL−$8,020
Leader PnL is scaled to your per-trade size. Delay cost is the price move between the leader's fill and yours; slippage is walking the book to fill your size; fees use the 2026 fee schedule. Methodology.
By category
| Category | Trades | Follower PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Politics | 1,199 | −$8,154 | −13.5% |
| Tech | 1,049 | −$216.82 | −2.5% |
| Economy | 430 | +$471.49 | +28.1% |
| Finance | 242 | −$4.24 | −0.2% |
| Geopolitics | 89 | +$39.76 | +2.7% |
| Culture | 25 | +$3.21 | +5.3% |
| Sports | 11 | −$159.98 | −52.7% |
| Crypto | 1 | $0.00 | 0.0% |
| Weather | 1 | $0.00 | 0.0% |
Trades
Each leader buy and the copy we simulated at the selected delay. Open “Details” to see the market fills behind the copy price.
How fills are simulated: a copy can only fill against real taker buys of the same outcome within 10 minutes after the delay, so the headline numbers are conservative. Fill basis adds a second opinion: where no trade proved a fill, order-book or volume evidence may say the size was still fillable (an estimate, never in the headline). Methodology.
Filled whole order · Partial (NN%) part of it · No buyers nobody bought in the window — not counted · Data not in yet too recent to evaluate
| Date | Market | Leader price | Copy price | Fill | Fill basis | Follower PnL | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trades load from the live API when this section is visible. | |||||||
More Politics traders
- 0x55b4…80eaBeat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0x24c8…23e1Beat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0x614d…1546Beat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0x88c4…129aLeader lost money at this size
- 0xbacd…ab35Leader lost money at this size
- 0xc021…1fa8Keeps 2% at a 5-minute delay
See the full Politics copyability board, read the methodology, or learn how slippage and fees eat into copied returns.
This is a simulation built from historical on-chain fills; it is not a record of real copy trades. Past results don't predict future results. Only the wallet address and its public Polymarket name are shown.