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In backtest, only 20% of 0x88c4…129a's buys could be fully copied at a 5-minute delay

Politics 0x88c4919de76e526d55a32c1f8afb439dd1f1129a Profile on Polymarket

Only 20% of this trader's buys could be fully copied at a 5-minute delay, and another 21% only partly; the −$4,995 comes from the part you could copy. A copier who mirrored 0x88c4…129a's 533 buys across 106 markets with a 5-minute delay and $100 per trade would have ended at −$4,995. The leader lost $7,469 at the same size, so there were no returns to keep: the delay helped by +$2,658, slippage $13.34 and fees $170.08. In the backtest, this simulated copy would have tied up to $8,948 at once across 219 positions.

Copy delay

Each time the trader buys, the simulation copies this much. Not a total budget.

Key numbers

Follower PnL
−$4,995
Incl. estimates −$10,836
Max drawdown −$5,124
ROI −37.5% on total cost
Returns kept
n/a (The leader lost money at this size, so there were no returns to keep)
Leader, same size −$7,469
leader lost money
Peak capital in use
$8,948
Incl. estimates $23,544
533 copied buys · $13,337 total cost
Fill rate
20%
Most buys couldn't be fully copied
Incl. estimates 85%
109 filled · 110 partial · 314 no buyers
Backtest score
20/100
533 buys · 106 markets

The headline numbers only count what real trades in the 10 minutes after the delay prove. “Including estimates” also counts the unproven part of a buy when order-book or trading-volume evidence says it was fillable, at an estimated price. Treat it as an upper view, not a promise. 389 estimated: 71 high · 272 medium · 46 low · 30 thin How we estimate

Cumulative PnL across all copied positions

X axis
Max drawdown −$5.1k

Final values: 0 min: −$5,720; 1 min: −$5,108; 5 min: −$4,995; 30 min: −$6,452. Max drawdown −$5,124 (5 min, Oct 24). Hover or use the arrow keys to read values.

Chart data by day
Day (UTC)0 min1 min5 min30 min
Sep 21−$158.84−$112.43−$118.68−$263.82
Sep 22−$284.71−$227.58−$118.68−$265.65
Sep 23−$611.02−$567.18−$322.92−$463.97
Sep 24−$611.02−$567.18−$322.92−$463.97
Sep 25−$604.49−$565.73−$322.71−$449.66
Sep 26−$596.33−$563.36−$320.80−$533.66
Sep 27−$644.36−$609.35−$320.40−$533.66
Sep 28−$639.08−$609.35−$316.74−$533.66
Sep 29−$825.84−$733.12−$452.61−$582.09
Sep 30−$1,015−$908.96−$552.83−$873.50
Oct 1−$1,022−$931.04−$598.53−$915.32
Oct 2−$1,808−$1,501−$1,152−$1,546
Oct 3−$1,369−$1,037−$1,413−$2,242
Oct 4−$1,493−$1,142−$1,563−$2,477
Oct 5−$2,976−$2,975−$3,090−$4,473
Oct 6−$3,444−$3,527−$3,465−$4,836
Oct 7−$3,685−$3,716−$3,735−$5,149
Oct 8−$3,873−$3,803−$3,841−$5,429
Oct 9−$3,840−$3,776−$3,829−$5,414
Oct 10−$3,918−$3,791−$3,844−$5,414
Oct 11−$3,918−$3,791−$3,844−$5,414
Oct 12−$3,887−$3,765−$3,822−$5,399
Oct 13−$4,021−$3,861−$3,919−$5,399
Oct 14−$4,097−$3,899−$3,915−$5,464
Oct 15−$4,421−$4,234−$4,251−$5,778
Oct 16−$4,532−$4,347−$4,332−$5,863
Oct 17−$4,527−$4,342−$4,328−$5,863
Oct 18−$4,568−$4,374−$4,410−$5,955
Oct 19−$4,545−$4,369−$4,408−$5,950
Oct 20−$4,626−$4,369−$4,408−$5,950
Oct 21−$4,851−$4,446−$4,489−$5,995
Oct 22−$5,120−$4,696−$4,626−$6,013
Oct 23−$5,430−$4,903−$4,737−$6,102
Oct 24−$5,857−$5,236−$5,124−$6,504
Oct 25−$5,720−$5,108−$4,995−$6,452

Every delay side by side

DelayFollower PnLKeptFilled
0 min−$5,720n/a (The leader lost money at this size, so there were no returns to keep)29%
1 min−$5,108n/a (The leader lost money at this size, so there were no returns to keep)25%
5 min (selected)−$4,995n/a (The leader lost money at this size, so there were no returns to keep)20%
30 min−$6,452n/a (The leader lost money at this size, so there were no returns to keep)19%

Where the returns go

  1. Leader PnL at your size−$7,469
  2. Delay helped+$2,658
  3. Slippage−$13.34
  4. Fees (buys $115.12 · sells $54.96)−$170.08
  5. Follower PnL−$4,995

Leader PnL is scaled to your per-trade size. Delay cost is the price move between the leader's fill and yours; slippage is walking the book to fill your size; fees use the 2026 fee schedule. Methodology.

By category

CategoryTradesFollower PnLROI
Politics462−$5,106−45.3%
Geopolitics60+$116.06+6.0%
Finance10−$4.94−3.6%
Economy1$0.000.0%

Data version 12075 · computed Oct 26, 2026 · 141 unsettled positions marked at the last traded price.

Trades

Each leader buy and the copy we simulated at the selected delay. Open “Details” to see the market fills behind the copy price.

How fills are simulated: a copy can only fill against real taker buys of the same outcome within 10 minutes after the delay, so the headline numbers are conservative. Fill basis adds a second opinion: where no trade proved a fill, order-book or volume evidence may say the size was still fillable (an estimate, never in the headline). Methodology.

Filled whole order · Partial (NN%) part of it · No buyers nobody bought in the window — not counted · Data not in yet too recent to evaluate

Show
Order
Date Market Leader price Copy price Fill Fill basis Follower PnL Details
Trades load from the live API when this section is visible.
Page 1

More Politics traders

See the full Politics copyability board, read the methodology, or learn how slippage and fees eat into copied returns.

This is a simulation built from historical on-chain fills; it is not a record of real copy trades. Past results don't predict future results. Only the wallet address and its public Polymarket name are shown.