In backtest, only 10% of 0xd46b…5dab's buys could be fully copied at a 5-minute delay
Provisional
Only 10% of this trader's buys could be fully copied at a 5-minute delay, and another 14% only partly; the +$11.02 comes from the part you could copy. A copier who mirrored 0xd46b…5dab's 154 buys across 60 markets with a 5-minute delay and $100 per trade would have made +$11.02 — more than the leader's +$2.78 at the same size, so the copier kept all of the leader's returns and more (396.1%). That happens when prices keep moving the leader's way after they buy and a later entry ends up cheaper: the delay helped by +$35.42, slippage $0.66 and fees $26.52. A small sample can flip this, so compare the other delays and the trades below. In the backtest, this simulated copy would have tied up to $1,652 at once across 37 positions.
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Key numbers
The headline numbers only count what real trades in the 10 minutes after the delay prove. “Including estimates” also counts the unproven part of a buy when order-book or trading-volume evidence says it was fillable, at an estimated price. Treat it as an upper view, not a promise. 114 estimated: 17 high · 78 medium · 19 low · 25 thin How we estimate
Cumulative PnL across all copied positions
Final values: 0 min: +$257.58; 1 min: +$228.29; 5 min: +$11.02; 30 min: +$1.58. Max drawdown −$40.22 (5 min, Oct 8). Hover or use the arrow keys to read values.
Chart data by day
| Day (UTC) | 0 min | 1 min | 5 min | 30 min |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 22 | +$53.53 | +$53.55 | +$1.55 | $0.00 |
| Sep 23 | +$50.89 | +$50.91 | $0.00 | −$2.38 |
| Sep 24 | +$49.35 | +$52.60 | $0.00 | −$2.38 |
| Sep 25 | +$63.60 | +$66.85 | +$0.83 | −$1.78 |
| Sep 26 | +$63.60 | +$66.85 | +$4.07 | −$1.78 |
| Sep 27 | +$76.73 | +$66.85 | +$4.07 | −$1.78 |
| Sep 28 | +$76.73 | +$66.85 | +$4.07 | −$1.78 |
| Sep 29 | +$75.90 | +$83.62 | +$19.66 | +$10.07 |
| Sep 30 | +$107.13 | +$112.82 | +$17.01 | +$17.07 |
| Oct 1 | +$114.87 | +$120.65 | +$21.06 | +$9.50 |
| Oct 2 | +$114.87 | +$120.65 | +$21.06 | +$9.50 |
| Oct 3 | +$114.87 | +$120.65 | +$21.06 | +$9.50 |
| Oct 4 | +$114.84 | +$120.53 | +$21.08 | +$9.50 |
| Oct 5 | +$107.31 | +$117.69 | +$22.68 | +$9.65 |
| Oct 6 | +$132.26 | +$119.92 | +$35.23 | +$12.93 |
| Oct 7 | +$139.21 | +$131.05 | +$40.71 | +$12.93 |
| Oct 8 | +$162.30 | +$162.68 | +$33.83 | +$23.67 |
| Oct 9 | +$162.30 | +$162.68 | +$33.83 | +$23.67 |
| Oct 10 | +$161.76 | +$162.30 | +$33.59 | +$23.30 |
| Oct 11 | +$160.59 | +$161.44 | +$31.66 | +$18.24 |
| Oct 12 | +$160.59 | +$161.44 | +$31.66 | +$18.24 |
| Oct 13 | +$251.94 | +$252.79 | +$31.66 | +$79.22 |
| Oct 14 | +$281.82 | +$252.79 | +$31.66 | +$79.22 |
| Oct 15 | +$281.82 | +$252.79 | +$31.66 | +$79.22 |
| Oct 16 | +$281.82 | +$252.79 | +$31.66 | +$79.22 |
| Oct 17 | +$282.60 | +$252.79 | +$31.66 | +$80.21 |
| Oct 18 | +$282.60 | +$252.79 | +$31.66 | +$80.21 |
| Oct 19 | +$280.74 | +$252.79 | +$31.66 | +$80.21 |
| Oct 20 | +$280.74 | +$252.79 | +$31.66 | +$80.21 |
| Oct 21 | +$278.88 | +$249.76 | +$31.66 | +$28.55 |
| Oct 22 | +$278.63 | +$249.55 | +$31.73 | +$27.57 |
| Oct 23 | +$279.36 | +$249.78 | +$31.73 | +$27.57 |
| Oct 24 | +$279.36 | +$249.78 | +$31.73 | +$27.57 |
| Oct 25 | +$257.58 | +$228.29 | +$11.02 | +$1.58 |
Every delay side by side
| Delay | Follower PnL | Kept | Filled |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 min | +$257.58 | 100%+ (Exactly 9257.7%: the simulated copy did better than the leader) | 15% |
| 1 min | +$228.29 | 100%+ (Exactly 8205.0%: the simulated copy did better than the leader) | 12% |
| 5 min (selected) | +$11.02 | 100%+ (Exactly 396.1%: the simulated copy did better than the leader) | 10% |
| 30 min | +$1.58 | 56.8% | 10% |
Where the returns go
- Leader PnL at your size+$2.78
- Delay helped+$35.42
- Slippage−$0.66
- Fees (buys $23.26 · sells $3.26)−$26.52
- Follower PnL+$11.02
Leader PnL is scaled to your per-trade size. Delay cost is the price move between the leader's fill and yours; slippage is walking the book to fill your size; fees use the 2026 fee schedule. Methodology.
By category
| Category | Trades | Follower PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Politics | 96 | −$13.61 | −0.8% |
| Geopolitics | 29 | +$24.63 | +8.3% |
| Sports | 23 | $0.00 | 0.0% |
| Finance | 4 | $0.00 | 0.0% |
| Other | 2 | $0.00 | 0.0% |
Trades
Each leader buy and the copy we simulated at the selected delay. Open “Details” to see the market fills behind the copy price.
How fills are simulated: a copy can only fill against real taker buys of the same outcome within 10 minutes after the delay, so the headline numbers are conservative. Fill basis adds a second opinion: where no trade proved a fill, order-book or volume evidence may say the size was still fillable (an estimate, never in the headline). Methodology.
Filled whole order · Partial (NN%) part of it · No buyers nobody bought in the window — not counted · Data not in yet too recent to evaluate
| Date | Market | Leader price | Copy price | Fill | Fill basis | Follower PnL | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trades load from the live API when this section is visible. | |||||||
More Politics traders
- 0x55b4…80eaBeat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0x24c8…23e1Beat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0x614d…1546Beat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0x23d8…0288Keeps 88% at a 5-minute delay
- 0xf937…53a1Beat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0xd8d5…8935Keeps 82% at a 5-minute delay
See the full Politics copyability board, read the methodology, or learn how slippage and fees eat into copied returns.
This is a simulation built from historical on-chain fills; it is not a record of real copy trades. Past results don't predict future results. Only the wallet address and its public Polymarket name are shown.